Swing for the Fences: DFS HR Predictions for FanDuel and DraftKings (6/20)

Brad Richter

Growing up, I was always intrigued with stats, from the back of baseball, football and basketball cards to playing dice rolling simulation games, while tracking the stats for the players on my team. My fantasy sports obsession began in college running fantasy football leagues with friends and has expanded into playing in both fantasy baseball and fantasy basketball leagues, and most recently Daily Fantasy Sports. I consider myself a “stats guy” by nature and lean on data to back up my advice and analysis of strategy techniques and player evaluations. That said, I have also always felt that sometimes you must go with a gut instinct based on things you have seen watching players play, even when the numbers don’t back it up. I feel that it is this mix of analysis that leads to the most successful formula when competing in fantasy sports.

With a lot of solid cheap pitchers to choose from on the Tuesday night slate, you should be able to pay up for some big bombers in your GPP lineups.

Prices included for FanDuel and DraftKings to help find where the best value may be and positions are based on FanDuel.

So with that here is who will be swinging for the fences today…

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C – Russell Martin (TOR) (FanDuel: $2,400 / DraftKings: $4,000) – Martin has two homers in his last four starts and will face Nick Martinez who has allowed 2.43 HR/9 to right-handed hitters this season.

1B – Paul Goldschmidt (ARI) (FanDuel: $5,300 / DraftKings: $5,800) – Goldschmidt playing at Coors Field against German Marquez who Goldschmidt is 4-for-5 with two homers off this season.

2B – Brian Dozier (MIN) (FanDuel: $3,500 / DraftKings: $4,600) – Dozier has a .256 ISO versus lefties this season and will face White Sox left-hander Derek Holland who Dozier has one homer against in 10 at-bats.

SS – Aledmys Diaz (STL) (FanDuel: $3,000 / DraftKings: $3,700) – Diaz has hit all seven of his homers this season off righties and will face Phillies’ right-hander Jeremy Hellickson who Diaz is 3-for-5 with a double and a pair of homers against in his career.

3B – Nick Castellanos (DET) (FanDuel: $2,800 / DraftKings: $3,500) – Castellanos has a .283 ISO and 52.4% hard hit rate versus lefties this season. He will face Mariners’ southpaw Ariel Miranda who has allowed 1.89 HR/9 to right-handed hitters this year.

OF – Aaron Judge (NYY) (FanDuel: $4,700 / DraftKings: $5,400) – Judge has produced a massive .561 wOBA and .537 ISO at home versus righties this season and will get a crack at the Angels rookie right-hander Parker Bridwell in Yankee Stadium.

OF – Adam Jones (BAL) (FanDuel: $3,300 / DraftKings: $4,300) – Jones has smashed Josh Tomlin in his career going 10-for-18 with four doubles and a home run.

OF – Lonnie Chisenhall (CLE) (FanDuel: $2,700 / DraftKings: $4,000) – In his last five games, Chisenhall is batting .409 with two doubles and three home runs and has a .333 ISO versus righties this season.

Longshot – Kyle Schwarber (CHC) (FanDuel: $2,600 / DraftKings: $3,500) – Make sure Schwarber is in the lineup (left last night’s game with  injury) but if he is the perfect cheap power source for GPP lineups.

Cheap Pitching options
FanDuel – Brandon McCarthy ($7,900), Mike Montgomery ($7,300), Francis Martes ($6,500)
DraftKings – Brandon McCarthy ($6,400), Francis Martes ($5,800), Mike Montgomery ($5,500)

 

Friday, June 16 –  Results

Pos Name HR FD Pts
C Jonathan Lucroy 0 13.0
1B Brandon Belt 0 0.0
2B Robinson Cano 0 3.5
3B Josh Donaldson 0 6.0
SS Corey Seager 0 3.0
OF Cody Bellinger 0 3.0
OF Aaron Altherr 0 3.2
OF Matt Kemp NA NA
Longshot Jake Marisnick 0 0.0

 

Season Results

Pos Picks HR HR Rate Avg FD Pts
C 17 4 23.5% 10.87
1B 20 5 25.0% 11.56
2B 19 3 15.8% 10.54
SS 18 5 27.8% 16.95
3B 19 3 15.8% 8.69
OF 59 13 22.0% 11.56
Longshot 19 3 15.8% 11.18
Total 171 36 21.1% 11.58

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Brad Richter

Growing up, I was always intrigued with stats, from the back of baseball, football and basketball cards to playing dice rolling simulation games, while tracking the stats for the players on my team. My fantasy sports obsession began in college running fantasy football leagues with friends and has expanded into playing in both fantasy baseball and fantasy basketball leagues, and most recently Daily Fantasy Sports. I consider myself a “stats guy” by nature and lean on data to back up my advice and analysis of strategy techniques and player evaluations. That said, I have also always felt that sometimes you must go with a gut instinct based on things you have seen watching players play, even when the numbers don’t back it up. I feel that it is this mix of analysis that leads to the most successful formula when competing in fantasy sports.

Brad Richter

Growing up, I was always intrigued with stats, from the back of baseball, football and basketball cards to playing dice rolling simulation games, while tracking the stats for the players on my team. My fantasy sports obsession began in college running fantasy football leagues with friends and has expanded into playing in both fantasy baseball and fantasy basketball leagues, and most recently Daily Fantasy Sports. I consider myself a “stats guy” by nature and lean on data to back up my advice and analysis of strategy techniques and player evaluations. That said, I have also always felt that sometimes you must go with a gut instinct based on things you have seen watching players play, even when the numbers don’t back it up. I feel that it is this mix of analysis that leads to the most successful formula when competing in fantasy sports.

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