Swing for the Fences: DFS HR Predictions for FanDuel and DraftKings (6/27)

Brad Richter

Growing up, I was always intrigued with stats, from the back of baseball, football and basketball cards to playing dice rolling simulation games, while tracking the stats for the players on my team. My fantasy sports obsession began in college running fantasy football leagues with friends and has expanded into playing in both fantasy baseball and fantasy basketball leagues, and most recently Daily Fantasy Sports. I consider myself a “stats guy” by nature and lean on data to back up my advice and analysis of strategy techniques and player evaluations. That said, I have also always felt that sometimes you must go with a gut instinct based on things you have seen watching players play, even when the numbers don’t back it up. I feel that it is this mix of analysis that leads to the most successful formula when competing in fantasy sports.

I had a big night on Friday with home runs from five out of my nine selections on the night, including one from my longshot Scooter Gennett off Stephen Strasburg. Let’s try to keep the positive momentum going on Tuesday’s 15-game slate.

Prices included for FanDuel and DraftKings to help find where the best value may be and positions are based on FanDuel.

So with that here is who will be swinging for the fences today…

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C – Yasmani Grandal (LAD) (FanDuel: $2,900 / DraftKings: $3,900) – Grandal at home versus a righty is always an option for me. He has hit six out of his nine homers at home versus righties with a.250 ISO this season. If you think that is a fluke, last year he hit 17 of his 27 homers at home versus righties with a .376 ISO. That’s no fluke!

1B – Eric Thames (MIL) (FanDuel: $3,100 / DraftKings: $4,200) – Thames has crushed the Reds this season batting .440 with eight home runs and 13 RBIs in seven games.

2B – Brian Dozier (MIN) (FanDuel: $3,500 / DraftKings: $4,700) – Dozier has a .412 wOBA and .226 ISO versus lefties this season and will face Red Sox lefty Drew Pomeranz who has allowed 1.63 HR/9 at home right-handed hitters this season.

SS – Xander Bogaerts (BOS) (FanDuel: $3,400 / DraftKings: $4,100) – Bogaerts has three homers and two doubles over his last eight games. He is 6-for-9 with a double off tonight’s opponent Hector Santiago.

3B – Josh Donaldson (TOR) (FanDuel: $3,800 / DraftKings: $4,100) – Donaldson has a .366 wOBA and .252 ISO versus righties this season and is 6-for-16 with two double and a home run off opposing right-hander Kevin Gausman.

OF – Marcell Ozuna (MIA) (FanDuel: $3,900 / DraftKings: $4,000) – Ozuna has a .455 wOBA and .367 ISO at home versus righties this season and has crushed righty Robert Gsellman going 4-for-8 with three homers.

OF – Mookie Betts (BOS) (FanDuel: $3,600 / DraftKings: $5,100) – Betts has a .280 ISO versus left-handed pitching this season and will face lefty Hector Santiago who Betts has two doubles and a home run off in 12 at-bats.

OF – Keon Broxton (MIL) (FanDuel: $2,900 / DraftKings: $4,200) – Broxton is on a hot streak with two homers and two steals in his last three games. He has a .356 wOBA and .267 ISO on the road versus righties this season and will face right-hander Tim Adleman in hitter-friendly Cincinnati.

Longshot – Yasiel Puig (LAD) (FanDuel: $2,400 / DraftKings: $3,800) – Puig has hit four homers over his last nine games and has hit 13 of his 14 homers this season off righties. He will face Angels’ right-hander Jesse Chavez who has allowed 2.78 HR/9 to right-handed hitters this year.

Cheap Pitching options
FanDuel – Jhoulys Chacin ($7,800), Sean Newcomb ($7,700)
DraftKings – Justin Verlander ($8,400), Jhoulys Chacin ($6,800), Sean Newcomb ($6,700), Sean Manaea ($6,200)

 

Wednesday, June 29 –  Results

Pos Name HR FD Pts
C Alex Avila 0 6.0
1B Logan Morrison 1 41.1
2B Rougned Odor 0 0.0
3B Travis Shaw 0 0.0
SS Chad Pinder 0 0.0
OF Giancarlo Stanton 1 27.7
OF Khris Davis 1 34.2
OF Brett Gardner 1 27.7
Longshot Scooter Gennett 1 24.7

 

Season Results

Pos Picks HR HR Rate Avg FD Pts
C 19 4 21.1% 10.36
1B 22 7 31.8% 13.51
2B 21 3 14.3% 9.54
SS 20 5 25.0% 15.57
3B 21 3 14.3% 8.00
OF 65 17 26.2% 12.49
Longshot 20 4 20.0% 11.86
Total 188 43 22.9% 11.82

 

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Brad Richter

Growing up, I was always intrigued with stats, from the back of baseball, football and basketball cards to playing dice rolling simulation games, while tracking the stats for the players on my team. My fantasy sports obsession began in college running fantasy football leagues with friends and has expanded into playing in both fantasy baseball and fantasy basketball leagues, and most recently Daily Fantasy Sports. I consider myself a “stats guy” by nature and lean on data to back up my advice and analysis of strategy techniques and player evaluations. That said, I have also always felt that sometimes you must go with a gut instinct based on things you have seen watching players play, even when the numbers don’t back it up. I feel that it is this mix of analysis that leads to the most successful formula when competing in fantasy sports.

Brad Richter

Growing up, I was always intrigued with stats, from the back of baseball, football and basketball cards to playing dice rolling simulation games, while tracking the stats for the players on my team. My fantasy sports obsession began in college running fantasy football leagues with friends and has expanded into playing in both fantasy baseball and fantasy basketball leagues, and most recently Daily Fantasy Sports. I consider myself a “stats guy” by nature and lean on data to back up my advice and analysis of strategy techniques and player evaluations. That said, I have also always felt that sometimes you must go with a gut instinct based on things you have seen watching players play, even when the numbers don’t back it up. I feel that it is this mix of analysis that leads to the most successful formula when competing in fantasy sports.

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