Swing for the Fences: DFS HR Predictions for FanDuel and DraftKings (8/11)

Brad Richter

Growing up, I was always intrigued with stats, from the back of baseball, football and basketball cards to playing dice rolling simulation games, while tracking the stats for the players on my team. My fantasy sports obsession began in college running fantasy football leagues with friends and has expanded into playing in both fantasy baseball and fantasy basketball leagues, and most recently Daily Fantasy Sports. I consider myself a “stats guy” by nature and lean on data to back up my advice and analysis of strategy techniques and player evaluations. That said, I have also always felt that sometimes you must go with a gut instinct based on things you have seen watching players play, even when the numbers don’t back it up. I feel that it is this mix of analysis that leads to the most successful formula when competing in fantasy sports.

I was able to put together a nice five home run day with my Tuesday lineup, including a double dong from Jake Lamb for my fourth two-homer pick of the season. Friday’s have not been as kind to my HR predictions over the last couple of weeks but I’ll give it another whirl for tonight’s 15-game slate. Let’s get this party started!

Prices included for FanDuel and DraftKings to help find where the best value may be and positions are based on FanDuel.

So with that here is who will be swinging for the fences today…

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C – Alex Avila (CHC) (FanDuel: $2,300 / DraftKings: $3,600) – With Willson Contreras out, Avila should start at catcher for the Cubs in a hitter-friendly environment in Arizona. Avila has a .386 wOBA and .228 ISO versus righties this season and has gone 3-for-6 with a homer off righty Taijuan Walker.

1B – Eric Thames (MIL) (FanDuel: $2,700 / DraftKings: $4,100) –Thames is struggling at the plate right now but after a day off and with a matchup against Homer Bailey now is the time to give Thames a shot that he can hit a shot.

2B – Robinson Cano (SEA) (FanDuel: $3,700 / DraftKings: $4,000) – Cano has a pair of hits in each of his last two games, has a .225 ISO versus righties and is batting .333 with three homers off Ricky Nolasco in 21 career at-bats.

SS – Corey Seager (LAD) (FanDuel: $3,700 / DraftKings: $4,800) – There might not be any SS that will hit a home run tonight, so I’m going with the best player at the position in Seager. Seager has hit eight homers off lefties this season and has a .423 wOBA and .248 ISO against southpaws this season.

mlb fanduel and draftkings lineup 8/11

3B – Miguel Sano (MIN) (FanDuel: $3,700 / DraftKings: $4,300) – Sano has hits in four straight games including a pair of doubles. He has a .333 ISO on the road versus righties this season and will face right-hander Anibal Sanchez in Detroit, who is allowing 3.12 HR/9 to righties this year.

OF – Ryan Braun (MIL) (FanDuel: $4,100 / DraftKings: $4,700) – Braun has multiple hits in five straight games including three extra-base hits and will face Homer Bailey who has allowed a .479 wOBA and 1.64 HR/9 to righties this season.

OF – Yoenis Cespedes (NYM) (FanDuel: $3,400 / DraftKings: $4,200) – Cespedes will face right-hander Nick Pivetta who has been crushed by righties this season with a .412 wOBA and massive 3.12 HR/9.

OF – Kyle Schwarber (CHC) (FanDuel: $3,100 / DraftKings: $3,800) – Schwarber has a .251 ISO versus righties this season and will travel to a good hitter’s park in Arizona to face Taijuan Walker who has allowed 2.18 HR/9 to lefties at home this season.

Longshot – Kike Hernandez (LAD) (FanDuel: $2,200 / DraftKings: $3,300) – Hernandez usually starts versus lefties with his .399 wOBA and .360 ISO versus southpaws this season. He will face Padres’ lefty Clayton Richard who has allowed 1.55 HR/9 (1.90 on the road) to righties this season.

Cheap Pitching options
FanDuel – Marcus Stroman ($8,300), Jake Faria ($8,000), Jon Gray ($7,900)
DraftKings – Jon Gray ($8,600), Jake Faria ($8,400), Jameson Taillon ($8,100)

 

Tuesday, August 8 –  Results

Pos Name HR FD Pts
C Austin Hedges 1 24.7
1B Freddie Freeman 1 18.7
2B Jose Altuve 1 24.7
3B Jake Lamb 2 47.9
SS Marwin Gonzalez 0 12.2
OF Mike Trout 0 6.0
OF Steven Pearce 0 12.0
OF Hunter Renfroe NA NA
Longshot Scooter Gennett 0 3.0

 

Season Results

Pos Picks HR HR Rate Avg FD Pts
C 26 7 26.9% 11.78
1B 32 9 28.1% 11.81
2B 31 7 22.6% 11.42
SS 30 8 26.7% 14.33
3B 30 6 20.0% 10.19
OF 94 22 23.4% 12.03
Longshot 29 4 13.8% 11.26
Total 272 63 23.2% 11.88

If you have any suggestions or feedback for the article, follow me and hit me up on Twitter @Rotopilot

 

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Brad Richter

Growing up, I was always intrigued with stats, from the back of baseball, football and basketball cards to playing dice rolling simulation games, while tracking the stats for the players on my team. My fantasy sports obsession began in college running fantasy football leagues with friends and has expanded into playing in both fantasy baseball and fantasy basketball leagues, and most recently Daily Fantasy Sports. I consider myself a “stats guy” by nature and lean on data to back up my advice and analysis of strategy techniques and player evaluations. That said, I have also always felt that sometimes you must go with a gut instinct based on things you have seen watching players play, even when the numbers don’t back it up. I feel that it is this mix of analysis that leads to the most successful formula when competing in fantasy sports.

Brad Richter

Growing up, I was always intrigued with stats, from the back of baseball, football and basketball cards to playing dice rolling simulation games, while tracking the stats for the players on my team. My fantasy sports obsession began in college running fantasy football leagues with friends and has expanded into playing in both fantasy baseball and fantasy basketball leagues, and most recently Daily Fantasy Sports. I consider myself a “stats guy” by nature and lean on data to back up my advice and analysis of strategy techniques and player evaluations. That said, I have also always felt that sometimes you must go with a gut instinct based on things you have seen watching players play, even when the numbers don’t back it up. I feel that it is this mix of analysis that leads to the most successful formula when competing in fantasy sports.

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