Swing for the Fences: DFS HR Predictions for FanDuel and DraftKings (8/29)

I posted my second straight three home run night last Friday with five of my nine selections scoring at least 18 FanDuel points. This brings my season total up to a 24% home run rate from my selections. Looking to keep the positive momentum going for Tuesday night’s 15-game slate. I’m going with more of a Studs and Values list today that includes two of the best hitters in the game.

Prices included for FanDuel and DraftKings to help find where the best value may be and positions are based on FanDuel.

So with that here is who will be swinging for the fences today…

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C – Evan Gattis (HOU) (FanDuel: $2,500 / DraftKings: $3,400) – Gattis has returned from the DL recently which is suppressing his salary, however, I doubt that Martin Perez can suppress his power. Gattis is 7-for-18 off Perez in his career but still looking for his first homer off the lefty.

1B – Chris Davis (BAL) (FanDuel: $3,700 / DraftKings: $4,100) – Davis has three homers over his last eight games and has two doubles and two homers off righty Erasmo Ramirez in 19 career at-bats.

2B – Daniel Murphy (WAS) (FanDuel: $3,100 / DraftKings: $4,600) – Not sure why Murphy is so cheap on FanDuel. He has owned Vance Worley in his career going 12-for-22 with three extra-base hits.

mlb fanduel and draftkings lineup 8/29SS – Didi Gregorius (NYY) (FanDuel: $3,200 / DraftKings: $3,400) – Different day, same SS. This will be the sixth time I have used Gregorius in this column and he has gone deep the last two times I recommended him. He has taken Trevor Bauer deep once in 13 career at-bats.

3B – Matt Davidson (CHW) (FanDuel: $2,700 / DraftKings: $3,500) – Davidson has three hits including a home run in two games since returning from the DL. He has a homer and a double off Ervin Santana in four career at-bats.

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OF – Giancarlo Stanton (MIA) (FanDuel: $5,400 / DraftKings: $5,700) – You don’t need me to tell you Stanton is on fire and should be plugged in against Edwin Jackson who has allowed 1.80 HR/9 to righties this season.

OF – Mike Trout (LAA) (FanDuel: $4,600 / DraftKings: $5,300) – Trout has gone hitless in his last five games but he received a day off yesterday and I love targeting slumping players after getting a game off to re-focus. Oh, and it doesn’t hurt that Trout will face Chris Smith who has allowed 3.55 HR/9 to righties this season.

OF – Scott Schebler (CIN) (FanDuel: $3,000 / DraftKings: $3,700) – I told you Schebler was heating up in my article last Friday and he went on to score 47.1 FanDuel points. He’s got another good matchup tonight at home against righty Chris Flexen who has allowed a .389 wOBA and 1.46 HR/9 to lefties.

Longshot – Chad Pinder (OAK) (FanDuel: $2,400 / DraftKings: $3,700) – Pinder had a two-homer game over the weekend and has posted a .227 ISO versus righties this season. He will face righty Troy Scribner who has allowed three homers to righties in just nine innings pitched this year.

Cheap Pitching options
FanDuel – Luke Weaver ($8,400), R.A. Dickey ($7,000), Mark Leiter Jr. ($6,600)
DraftKings – Zack Godley ($7,700), Luke Weaver ($7,600), Mark Leiter Jr. ($6,800)

 

Friday, August 25 –  Results

Pos Name HR FD Pts
C Yasmani Grandal 0 6.5
1B Jose Abreu 1 30.9
2B Brian Dozier 0 18.2
3B Josh Donaldson 0 0.0
SS Paul DeJong 0 3.0
OF J.D. Martinez 0 3.0
OF Kyle Schwarber 1 21.7
OF Scott Schebler 1 47.1
Longshot Seth Smith 0 19.4

 

Season Results

Pos Picks HR HR Rate Avg FD Pts
C 30 8 26.7% 12.40
1B 36 11 30.6% 12.83
2B 35 8 22.9% 11.61
SS 34 8 23.5% 13.37
3B 34 7 20.6% 10.37
OF 106 28 26.4% 12.99
Longshot 33 4 12.1% 11.22
Total 308 74 24.0% 12.32

If you have any suggestions or feedback for the article, follow me and hit me up on Twitter @Rotopilot

 

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Brad Richter

Growing up, I was always intrigued with stats, from the back of baseball, football and basketball cards to playing dice rolling simulation games, while tracking the stats for the players on my team. My fantasy sports obsession began in college running fantasy football leagues with friends and has expanded into playing in both fantasy baseball and fantasy basketball leagues, and most recently Daily Fantasy Sports. I consider myself a “stats guy” by nature and lean on data to back up my advice and analysis of strategy techniques and player evaluations. That said, I have also always felt that sometimes you must go with a gut instinct based on things you have seen watching players play, even when the numbers don’t back it up. I feel that it is this mix of analysis that leads to the most successful formula when competing in fantasy sports.

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