Swing for the Fences: DFS HR Predictions for FanDuel and DraftKings (8/8)

Brad Richter

Growing up, I was always intrigued with stats, from the back of baseball, football and basketball cards to playing dice rolling simulation games, while tracking the stats for the players on my team. My fantasy sports obsession began in college running fantasy football leagues with friends and has expanded into playing in both fantasy baseball and fantasy basketball leagues, and most recently Daily Fantasy Sports. I consider myself a “stats guy” by nature and lean on data to back up my advice and analysis of strategy techniques and player evaluations. That said, I have also always felt that sometimes you must go with a gut instinct based on things you have seen watching players play, even when the numbers don’t back it up. I feel that it is this mix of analysis that leads to the most successful formula when competing in fantasy sports.

My “Bizzaro Day” attempt on Friday where I picked all cheap “Longshot” options didn’t pan out the way I had hoped. Oh well, they were all longshots, after all, I guess I can’t be too disappointed in the results. Tuesday features a full 15-game slate of MLB action to go hunting for homers. Returning to a more normal format today but with just a list of players (short on time) but you know the drill the player I recommend has some combination of a good matchup or ballpark or weather or BvP or I just have a hunch.

Prices included for FanDuel and DraftKings to help find where the best value may be and positions are based on FanDuel.

So with that here is who will be swinging for the fences today…

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C – Austin Hedges (SD) (FanDuel: $2,500 / DraftKings: $3,300)

1B – Freddie Freeman (ATL) (FanDuel: $3,900 / DraftKings: $4,800)

2B – Jose Altuve (HOU) (FanDuel: $4,200 / DraftKings: $5,400)

SS – Marwin Gonzalez (HOU) (FanDuel: $3,300 / DraftKings: $4,600)

3B – Jake Lamb (ARI) (FanDuel: $3,600 / DraftKings: $4,600)

OF – Mike Trout (LAA) (FanDuel: $5,100 / DraftKings: $5,600)

OF – Steven Pearce (TOR) (FanDuel: $3,400 / DraftKings: $3,900)

OF – Hunter Renfroe (SD) (FanDuel: $3,000 / DraftKings: $3,800)

Longshot – Scooter Gennett (CIN) (FanDuel: $2,400 / DraftKings: $3,800)

Cheap Pitching options
FanDuel – Chad Kuhl ($6,300), Austin Pruitt ($5,800)
DraftKings – Michael Wacha ($8,600), Zack Godley ($7,600), Chad Kuhl ($6,800), Austin Pruitt ($5,200)

 

Friday, August 4 – “Bizzaro Day” Results

Pos Name HR FD Pts
C Robinson Chirinos NA NA
1B Tyler Moore 0 3.0
2B Brad Miller 0 0.0
3B Luis Valbuena NA NA
SS Jordy Mercer 0 15.4
OF Chris Young 0 6.5
OF Jake Marisnick 0 6.5
OF Sean Rodriguez 0 3.0
Longshot Mike Trout 0 18.5

 

Season Results

Pos Picks HR HR Rate Avg FD Pts
C 25 6 24.0% 11.26
1B 31 8 25.8% 11.58
2B 30 6 20.0% 10.98
SS 29 8 27.6% 14.40
3B 29 4 13.8% 8.89
OF 92 22 23.9% 12.09
Longshot 28 4 14.3% 11.55
Total 264 58 22.0% 11.67

 

If you have any suggestions or feedback for the article, follow me and hit me up on Twitter @Rotopilot

 

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Brad Richter

Growing up, I was always intrigued with stats, from the back of baseball, football and basketball cards to playing dice rolling simulation games, while tracking the stats for the players on my team. My fantasy sports obsession began in college running fantasy football leagues with friends and has expanded into playing in both fantasy baseball and fantasy basketball leagues, and most recently Daily Fantasy Sports. I consider myself a “stats guy” by nature and lean on data to back up my advice and analysis of strategy techniques and player evaluations. That said, I have also always felt that sometimes you must go with a gut instinct based on things you have seen watching players play, even when the numbers don’t back it up. I feel that it is this mix of analysis that leads to the most successful formula when competing in fantasy sports.

Brad Richter

Growing up, I was always intrigued with stats, from the back of baseball, football and basketball cards to playing dice rolling simulation games, while tracking the stats for the players on my team. My fantasy sports obsession began in college running fantasy football leagues with friends and has expanded into playing in both fantasy baseball and fantasy basketball leagues, and most recently Daily Fantasy Sports. I consider myself a “stats guy” by nature and lean on data to back up my advice and analysis of strategy techniques and player evaluations. That said, I have also always felt that sometimes you must go with a gut instinct based on things you have seen watching players play, even when the numbers don’t back it up. I feel that it is this mix of analysis that leads to the most successful formula when competing in fantasy sports.

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