There is nothing more valuable than scooping up multiple top tier RBs in your draft. Last year you feasibly could’ve drafted Ezekiel Elliott, Dalvin Cook, and Austin Ekeler. That trio of RBs all finished in the top five. It’s easy to look back at previous seasons and pinpoint the roadmap to success, but it’s much harder to read the tea leaves to determine the catalyst for an RB1 finish.
I am going to breakdown efficiency, volume, and some thresholds that RB1s have historically met in order to determine the anatomy of the top 12, league-winning RB. I sorted the RB1s from 2016 – 2019 by fantasy points per game for weeks 1 – 16. Eligibility is based on playing at least 12 games.
Embed from Getty ImagesDISCLAIMER: There is one player who transcends the efficiency vs volume debate and, of course, his name is Christian McCaffrey. He saw the most volume and he was the second most efficient of the 2019 RB1s at 5.9 yards/touch. He is the 1.01 in every format and his combo of volume and efficiency is the driving force. I have nothing else to say about the man other than I’m incredibly sad I don’t have any shares of him in any of my dynasty leagues.
I focused on one specific data point in my comparison of RB1 finishers between 2016 and 2019. I am calling these opportunities per game (OPG); which is the number of rush attempts plus targets an RB received per game.
| Ranking | Player | PPG | OPG | OPG rank | Yards/Touch | Total TD |
| 1 | Christian McCaffrey | 29.9 | 26.75 | 1 | 5.9 | 19 |
| 2 | Dalvin Cook | 20.9 | 22.36 | 4 | 5.5 | 13 |
| 3 | Aaron Jones | 19.9 | 19.0 | 13 | 5.5 | 19 |
| 4 | Austin Ekeler | 19.4 | 15.0 | 30 | 6.9 | 11 |
| 5 | Ezekiel Elliott | 19.0 | 23.25 | 3 | 5.0 | 14 |
| 6 | Saquon Barkley | 18.6 | 22.31 | 5 | 5.4 | 8 |
| 7 | Derrick Henry | 18.3 | 21.8 | 6 | 5.4 | 18 |
| 8 | Alvin Kamara | 17.6 | 19.14 | 12 | 5.3 | 6 |
| 9 | Leonard Fournette | 17.3 | 24.33 | 2 | 4.9 | 3 |
| 10 | Nick Chubb | 16.7 | 21.69 | 7 | 5.3 | 8 |
| 11 | Mark Ingram II | 16.2 | 15.4 | 27 | 5.5 | 15 |
| 12 | Chris Carson | 15.5 | 21.67 | 8 | 4.7 | 9 |
Since 2016, 34 of 48 qualified RBs who finished in the top 12 in fantasy points enjoyed that success due to being a member of the OPG top 12. This shows a strong correlation between volume and fantasy finish; however, nearly 30% of the top 12 finishers were outside of that threshold.
What do those outlier finishers have in common? 11 of those 14 players enjoyed career highs in yards per touch and/or total touchdowns. Banking on that sort of repeat is a dangerous game. In the last four seasons, the only players to record a consecutive RB1 finish after finishing outside the top 12 in OPG are Christian McCaffrey, Alvin Kamara, Devonta Freeman, and Carlos Hyde. Carlos Hyde benefitted from Kyle Shanahan taking over in San Francisco, Christian McCaffrey and Alvin Kamara are two of top five most talented RBs in the NFL, and Devonta Freeman was a hyper-efficient RB behind PFF’s number two ranked offensive line in 2017. https://www.pff.com/news/pro-ranking-all-32-offensive-lines-from-the-2017-nfl-season
This tells me that Austin Ekeler, Aaron Jones, and Mark Ingram II are major gambles to repeat their RB1 performance. Austin Ekeler and Aaron Jones in particular are extremely talented RBs, but they both find themselves in worse situations than they had last season.
So who are some RBs who could take their place in the RB1 neighborhood? James Conner and David Montgomery are two possible ascenders this season. They both project to have 19+ OPG in 2020 which indicates a high probability of an RB1 finish.
Embed from Getty ImagesDavid Montgomery was the RB18 in OPG in 2019, he was top 10 in carries inside the 10 and 5-yard lines, and this offense should be better once Nick Foles mercifully rescues us and the Chicago Bears franchise from the unmitigated disaster of Mitchell Trubisky. He’s going as the RB24 right now and is locked into 280+ touches in 2020.
Embed from Getty ImagesJames Conner has had his fair share of injuries, so I understand he is a risk, but when healthy he is a dynamic runner and pass catcher. Mike Tomlin has always preferred the bell cow RB approach and I expect Conner to be closer to the 22 OPG he saw in 2018 than the 15.4 he saw in 2019. That offense will be drastically better with Big Ben under center and Conner will be a major benefactor around the goal line. The best part is you don’t have to pay up for his services. He is the RB28 right now in ADP.
I don’t know about you, but I am not a seer nor do I have a crystal ball. I’m not comfortable placing the fate of my fantasy team in the hands of RBs sporting efficiency and touchdown totals that are statistically bound to regress. Give me the guaranteed workload all day, every day.
At the end of the day, it’s about mitigating risk in the early rounds. The best way to do that is to draft RBs that project for 19+ OPG. Let’s not overthink it, people. Volume is king when it comes to fantasy football. Long live the king.
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