I’m back for what looks like my last cash game picks article for now. Jared is set to return for the week 12 main slate, and I’ll return to the bench.
The Thanksgiving slate is always fun. It’s not a showdown contest, and it’s not a 10-game small main slate. It’s its own thing, and it’s all wrapped up in a day a lot of people don’t work and will be doing some sort of celebration and feast.
A Bit on How to Approach This Slate
I don’t want to get too into theory/strategy here, but because it is unique, there are some things to consider for cash game picks on the Thanksgiving slate. The options you have for players with safe floors (and, therefore, the options you have for combinations) are very few. You might see a couple of higher-priced guys you like at each position, then bam – you’re looking at $4400 options that don’t interest you.
So then fitting in the players you trust becomes even more difficult, making finding value even more important. In fact, with the way pricing is going on DK, especially given the lack of value at WR below $5K, flexing a TE is not the mortal sin it’s been treated as, and this is even more true on this Thanksgiving slate. Additionally, on this slate, you’re aiming to choose what will be the QB1 or QB2 on the slate, RB1 or RB2, and WR1 or WR2 more than ever.
As always, making the puzzle pieces fit with cash game picks becomes a challenge, but that’s part of why we like it, no?
One more thing: You’ll likely get an increase in participation from more casual players on Thursday, which might make the field softer and mitigate some of that puzzle challenge. If you usually go for higher buy-in cash contests, you might want to mix in some lower-stakes ones, too, where we expect those more casual players to be mainly concentrated.
Quarterback
I’m really only looking at two quarterbacks for cash game picks this week. It’s pretty simple.
Josh Allen ($8000)
Josh Allen is <checks notes> pretty good at football. He leads a Bills team with the highest team implied total (31.5; over/under 54), that passes a lot even when leading, and now gets a matchup with the Lions in a dome. It doesn’t get much better than this. If you can afford Allen, he is the best choice. However, it will mean you can’t fully punt at DST with the Lions, and that you’ll very likely have to punt at tight end and/or WR3. Going with my other choice might make more pieces work for you, but there is a caveat with him, too.
Dak Prescott ($6200)
It’s hard to dismiss Dak at this price. The offense is humming along with him back under center, and he’s in a home matchup against a Giants defense that is not as good as some people think. The Cowboys also have the second-highest team-implied total on the slate (26.8). However, despite the pass rate increasing under Dak, Dallas remains a run-focused team relative to the rest of the league, especially when they are leading in the game. With a positive game script likely here and a low over/under (44.5), it’s possible we will see the team lean on Tony Pollard and Ezekiel Elliott, capping Dak’s upside.
Honorable Mentions: none
Running Back
There are definitely more viable options for running back cash game picks than we have at quarterback. Still, with a three-game slate, most have concerns or question marks attached.
Saquon Barkley ($8000)
Last week’s dud ended my streak of article cover photo choices smashing (it was a one-week streak), but you can’t ignore the expected volume for Barkley, especially when the team’s already thin WR corps just lost Wan’Dale Robinson (ACL). The Giants are 9 point road underdogs, so it’s not the typical DFS RB smash spot, but Saquon isn’t your typical RB. It will be hard to fit in both him and Allen, especially if you want a stud WR – and it’s actually not very easy with Dak, either. Additionally, the Giants offensive line looks pretty banged up. I’ll likely be using lower-priced RBs in my cash lineups, but Barkley is Barkley, do he’s not off the table.
Tony Pollard ($6600)
Pollard continued his ascension last week, producing via both the run and pass as the Cowboys hung 40 on the Vikings. He’s another good option this week at a pretty good price point. The matchup is good, especially with big plays, which Pollard is very capable of. Pollard is pretty game script-proof as a fantasy producer in general, but the positive game script outcome described above with Dak will cap Pollard’s ceiling, in no small part because Zeke will see increased usage. If you use Pollard, you want the game to stay close for as long as possible, but in the context of this slate, he’s a very good choice for cash.
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Rhamondre Stevenson ($6400)
Stevenson is another good choice at a similar price point to Pollard’s. I could see myself using both in order to get up to Allen and a stud WR. You don’t love the team-implied total (19.8), the over/under (42.5), or the road underdog situation. But like Pollard, he will see good volume and is pretty much game script-proof. The New England passing game is not littered with other great pass-catching options anyway, and there is even a good chance the Patriots’ defense makes life hard for Kirk Cousins and Rhamondre is running with a lead. I’d be hesitant to play both Stevenson and fellow Patriots value option Jakobi Meyers in the same cash lineup, but he is a good cash option. However, I should note that the Patriots will be playing without their starting center. Nothing’s perfect.
Honorable Mentions: Devin Singletary ($5700) good snap share on a team that could hit 40+ points this week, could eat clock, reasonable price
Wide Receivers
This position probably has the best pool on this slate, making our cash game picks relatively less difficult. I’m likely priced out of Justin Jefferson ($8200), who could disappoint on a points-per-dollar basis anyway. I’m not fading CeeDee Lamb ($7100) off of the down week, but rather because I can get Amon-Ra St. brown for $500 less with a safer floor. There are some expensive-ish options I do like, and I’m also trying to find value in an Allen build.
Stefon Diggs ($8000)
For $200 less than Jefferson, I get a safer floor and a similar ceiling. Diggs is an elite player who gets lots of volume, which is the name of the game in cash. For more on why I love him for this slate, refer to all the reasons I love Allen. One more reason? The Lions’ best CB, Jeff Okudah, is likely out for this game.
Amon-Ra St. Brown ($6600)
it’s another good spot for the Sun God to shine. First, we have a baseline of outstanding target share and a high over/under. Let’s add Home Goff (the splits are glaring), and home Lions in general – their offensive output and rate of matching team-implied totals are much better in Ford Field (no relation) than outside it. Sprinkle in a likely negative game script. What’s not to like, especially at this price?
Richie James ($3400)
Yes, you read that right. James is your cash punt this week, as he is likely the biggest beneficiary of Robinson vacating the slot position. It’s not a great matchup overall, but it’s a likely negative game script, and you have to find value somewhere. I’d rather punt with Janes at $3400 than grab Darius Slayton at $5000 and use that $1600 elsewhere.
Honorable Mentions: Jakobi Meyers ($5100) likely safe PPR floor
Tight End
As I mentioned above, flexing a TE is not out of the question on this slate’s cash game picks. In my opinion, it should never be, but that’s another conversation. Either way, I think there are very few good options. TJ Hockenson ($5000) is pricey for cash, especially with the risk of Cousins struggling. Some people will chase Knox’s 7-70 from last week, but he is still a GPP play for me. It doesn’t leave us with much.
Dalton Schultz ($3800)
I outlined several reasons I really like Schultz in last week’s cash game picks article. Those reasons remain the same this week. As discussed above with Dak and Pollard, the only concern is an early comfortable lead and positive game script. If I can fit Schultz in, even as a flex, I will definitely consider it – but he’s not a sure thing. I had him as a virtual cash lock last week; Dallas jumped out to a lead, Pollard and Zeke split 30 RB rushes of the team’s 37, and Schultz ended up with a 3-22 line. Is it possible he is part of jumping out to the lead this week and gets us points early? Sure – but it’s by no means a sure thing. Still, Schultz is pretty much the only non-punt option for me in cash.
Lawrence Cager ($2700)
Huh? Welcome to the Thanksgiving slate. This is your TE cash punt. No Daniel Bellinger, no Robinson. Very possible negative game script. In the last two weeks, he’s posted a 5-4-29-1 line. If he gets a little less than that in this one game, he 2Xs – and if he finds the end zone, gravy (for your Thanksgiving meal).
Embed from Getty ImagesHonorable Mentions: James Mitchell ($2700) as a non-Giant punt if you’re playing Barkley, Slayton, or James
DST
It will be tough to fit in the Cowboys ($3700), who are a good play whether the game slows and hits the under or it’s closer and faster, and they get sacks and turnovers (or the Bills at $3400) in a cash lineup without sacrificing a lot elsewhere, so what’s left among the rest for our cash game picks?
Patriots ($3000)
I’ve alluded to how this defense can make things rough for the Vikings above. What we get: good pass rush plus the Vikings missing their starting left tackle, primetime Kirk Cousins, ability to slow down the game on both sides of the ball. It works for me when we have six teams to choose from.
Lions ($2100)
This is your total punt option to help you fit in better options at other positions. I would not recommend using them if you also play Allen at quarterback.
Honorable Mentions: none
There we have it. It’s been a pleasure filling in for Jared on these articles. I hope you enjoy this unique day and even make a little money, too. Best of luck, y’all!
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