The Best Landing Spots and Fantasy Outlooks for the Top 7 Free Agent QBs

The 2022 season is over. It is time for those not retired men to find a new payday with their present teams or a new team. The free agent quarterback pool may be shallow but the landing spot and fantasy outlook for some of the quarterbacks could vault their team (and your fantasy team) to unexpected glory.

The NFL has announced that the 2023 salary cap is $224.8 million. The projected franchise tag for quarterbacks will be around $32.5 million.

Here are the seven top free-agent quarterbacks and their potential landing spots. The list does not include Derek Carr, who will undoubtedly be traded but technically isn’t a free agent (although he did slay in the precision round at the Pro Bowl).

Geno Smith

2022 Stats

Smith had an outstanding outlier year. He finished with the league’s highest 69.8% completion percentage while leading the Seahawks to the playoffs.

Smith finished the season as a fantasy QB5.

Per Spotrac.com, the market value for Smith going into 2023 is a two-year contract for $78,659,052 that carries an AAV of $39.3 million.

BEST DESTINATION: Seattle Seahawks

FANTASY OUTLOOK: Smith finished the 2022 season as QB5. This season was an outlier for him. In his previous two full seasons (2013 and 2014), he finished averaging 12.1 and 10.8 fantasy points per game.

The Seahawks’ schedule for 2023 will be challenging for Seattle. Their opponents include their divisional foes and the Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, New York Giants, Philadelphia Eagles, and Cleveland Browns.

There will surely be adjustments, but these opponents allowed the fewest fantasy points to the quarterback position.

In 2022 the average fantasy points allowed to the quarterback position:

Cleveland Browns 13.2, Cincinnati Bengals 13.5, Philadelphia Eagles 13.7, Baltimore Ravens 15.1, and New York Giants 15.6

Do not count on Smith finishing QB5 next season.

 Baker Mayfield

2022 Stats/Multiple Teams        

Mayfield started the season with the Carolina Panthers. He started six of seven games before asking for a trade when he was delegated behind Sam Darnold. Carolina released him,m and he was picked up on waivers by the Los Angeles Rams. The Rams were the fourth in line on waivers.

In Los Angeles, Mayfield played four games, including the Thursday night game against the Las Vegas Raiders, where he led a fourth-quarter comeback after being with the team for one day. He completed 69 of 103 passes for 703 yards, four touchdowns, and one interception.

Mayfield’s journey last season includes taking a $3.5 million pay cut to get out of Cleveland and into Carolina.

BEST DESTINATION: Washington

Who knows what is going on in Washington? There is a valid argument that they have a starting quarterback in Taylor Heinicke, who, in his nine games played, had a 62.2% completion rate, 7.2 yards per attempt and 12 passing touchdowns, and six interceptions.

Heinicke is also a free agent.

Washington has the 16^th pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. They will have $32.8 million to spend when they release Carson Wentz.

FANTASY OUTLOOK: Washington and its carousel of quarterbacks ran the ball the fourth most in 2022 (31.6 rushing attempts per game).

Washington was on the precipice of making the playoffs, and then Wentz happened. It is unlikely they stray from their current offensive philosophy regardless of who is under center. And, oh yeah, Brian Robinson isn’t going anywhere.

Mayfield will always be that one player who tugs at your fantasy potential. Just remember he finished QB29 this season and took DJ Moore down. There is nothing wrong with blind hope.

 Jimmy Garoppolo

2022 Stats

Garoppolo will not be returning to San Francisco next year. Head coach Kyle Shanahan has made that clear.

In this NFL, a quarterback is always needed, especially one who has led a team to the postseason. The 49ers acquired Garoppolo in 2017 from the New England Patriots. From 2017 to 2022, he had one injury-free season, which was in 2019.

BEST DESTINATION: The best destination for Garoppolo would be with the Miami Dolphins. However, it appears unrealistic that the Dolphins will move away from what they have.

So second best destination is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Buccaneers’ quarterback situation is bleak (no disrespect to Kyle Trask). Their QB1 has retired, and Blaine Gabbert is also an unrestricted free agent.

And then there is the salary cap problem. The Buccaneers have 24 players that will be unrestricted free agents. The team is 31^st in salary cap (-$57,964,949), and they have the 19^th pick in the 2023 NFL Draft.

But if they can acquire Garoppolo, his ability to excel in the short game and with the execution of just what needs to be done will mesh well with some of the offensive pieces currently on the Buccaneers’ roster.

FANTASY OUTLOOK: Last season, running back Leonard Fournette was fifth in the NFL in yards after the catch (582), and wide receiver Chris Godwin was eighth (535).

Fournette and Godwin play into Garoppolo’s strengths, especially the short game to the running backs and the short/intermediate passing.

Garoppolo finished his shortened 2022 season as QB25 averaging 15.3 fantasy points per game. In the 2021 season, he finished as QB15 averaging 16.0 fantasy points per game.

If the Buccaneers’ offensive line gets healthy and Garoppolo stays healthy, expect him to stay within the top-15 for fantasy quarterbacks. But remember, he has only had one full, healthy season, so either drafts him as your backup or draft a decent backup for insurance.

Mike White

2022 Stats

White was very good at replacing Zach Wilson for three games in 2022. Then he had a substantial injury and wasn’t the same when he returned to play the Seattle Seahawks.

Here is the thing, when last seen (in a game that would make or break the Jets’ chances for postseason play), White went 23-of-46, 240 passing yards, zero touchdowns, and two interceptions. He wasn’t very good, and that is the last image.

For his positives, White was hitting his wide receivers and over the middle of the field and putting the ball safely in tight widows when playing well. When playing poorly, he highlighted his lack of mobility and inaccuracies when throwing the ball over on the run.

The only quarterback the Jets currently have under contract is Wilson, who is owed $20 million over the next two years.

The Jets are in dire need of a quarterback. They have an excellent defense and the pieces for a good offense with no viable quarterback.

Their new offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett has proven himself a good offensive coordinator, having had a top-10 offense three times.

So White would have to learn a new system. (Oddly enough, a quarterback is rumored to be in consideration for a trade that knows Hackett’s system).

But as far as free agents go, White is a known commodity, and the locker room adores him (team chemistry should play a part in the decision…sorry, Wilson).

The Jets have the 13^th pick of the 2023 NFL Draft and are -$3,805,607 million under the 2023 salary cap per spotrac.com.

The question then becomes, is White just a viable fill-in, or can he be counted on to start an entire season? Was his injury the reason for his poor play against Seattle?

BEST DESTINATION: The New York Jets are the best landing spot for White, whether as a backup to a trade acquisition or as the starter to a team he is familiar with.

FANTASY OUTLOOK: Last season’s fantasy numbers for White

White isn’t a viable fantasy option.

 Daniel Jones

2022 Stats

Jones is another quarterback who had a good year. He finished with a 67.2% completion percentage, had three games with over 300 passing yards and four with over 200 passing yards, and ran for a career-high 708 rushing yards (seven rushing touchdowns).

His completion percentage was a career-high, as were his 15 passing touchdowns.

The Giants have the 25^th pick in the 2023 NFL Draft and the third most salary cap space per spotrac.com, $42,169,480. The team has 21 unrestricted free agents and one restricted free agent (counting Jones).

Jones led the Giants to their first postseason game since 2011 and their first playoff victory since 2012.

BEST DESTINATION: Jone’s best bet is to stay with the New York Giants. He excelled this season under head coach Brian Daboll and offensive coordinator Mike Kafka.

It appears from “coach speak” that the Giants want Jones back.

FANTASY OUTLOOK: Jones finished the season as QB9 in fantasy football, averaging 18.38 points per game. (in comparison, QB1 Patrick Mahomes averaged 25.20 fantasy points per game).

Jones’ rushing upside will keep him in the top 10 for fantasy quarterbacks. And if the Giants can acquire reliable receivers, he is elevated to top-five fantasy quarterback (yep, I said it).

 Jacoby Brissett

2022 Stats

I cannot be the only one who thinks the Browns should have just stayed the course with Brissett.

Yes, Brissett left his 11-game stint in Cleveland with a losing record (4-7), but he also had a career passer rating of 96.7 and the admiration of his fellow teammates (again, don’t discount the chemistry in the locker room).

Brissett could presumably stay in Cleveland and playback up to Deshaun Watson (let’s face it, Watson’s future is far from secure), or he could take his seven-year career 84.4 passer rating and 48 touchdowns and 23 interceptions to a destination that will allow him to start.

Without a particularly high ceiling, Brissett’s would do best going to a team with a solid run game.

BEST DESTINATION: Brissett to the Tennessee Titans sounds like a great option.

Quarterback Ryan Tannehill has one year remaining on his contract. In the injury-plagued 2022 season, Tannehill played in 12 games and finished with a 2.3% interception percentage and a 49.4 quarterback rating.

Without AJ Brown, Tannehill’s stats took a hit. The general manager and offensive coordinator are gone.

From a business perspective, “if the Titans keep Tannehill on their roster, he will cost them $36.6 million in cap space and be a free agent at the end of the season. If the Titans choose to cut Tannehill and go in a different direction, they will not owe him his $27 million base salary but would still get hit for $9.6 million against the cap from his bonus and restructure payments… That’s a $17.8 million in cap space savings….”

The Titans are currently 29^th in cap space per spotrac.com. They are $-28,187,933 under cap space.

Clearly, Malik Willis isn’t quite ready to be a starting quarterback, but he is still on a favorable rookie contract. Joshua Dobbs will be a free agent. Doubs played admirably in Week 18 against the Jacksonville Jaguars (20-of-29, 179 yards, one touchdown, one interception, and four sacks).

The Titans don’t need their quarterback to do much. The focus has been and will always be running back Derrick Henry. The emergence of Chigoziem Okonkwo and Treylon Burks plays into Brissett’s strengths (Burks’s aDot is 12.2 and Okonkwo’s aDot is 7.9) combined with the running prowess of Henry.

If the Titans and their new general manager and offensive coordinator decide to cut their losses with Tannehill, Brissett could be their man.

FANTASY OUTLOOK: Brissett finished the season as QB24 fantasy circles. He is capable but isn’t going to do your fantasy roster any favors on a week-to-week basis.

Lamar Jackson

2022 Stats

Jackson suffered a PCL injury and has not seen the field since Week 13. Was it a business decision, and will the injury dampen his prospects?

The team that acquires Jackson will certainly have to put out. They will also be molding their offense around the abilities of Jackson.

Although Jackson is known for his rushing ability, he also has a career passer rating of 96.7 and a career touchdown to interception ratio of 2.7-to-1.

BEST DESTINATION: Houston Texans is the best destination. Stay with me here. The Texans have a new respectable coach. They are fourth in cap space ($37,121,466) and have 11 picks in the 2023 NFL Draft.

That is enough money to acquire Jackson. Presumably, a free-agent wide receiver and enough draft picks to put talent around Jackson.

FANTASY OUTLOOK: The Texans are in the AFC South. Jackson finished as a fantasy QB14 with limited playing time and in the AFC North.

Jackson (if he can stay healthy) will always be on your fantasy radar.

Conclusion

Except for Jackson being the cream of the crop, the “rankings” of the free agent quarterbacks are In No Particular Order (shameless plug), which just happens to be the name of a new podcast on the GoingFor2Live platform. A podcast you can see every other Thursday after the Super Bowl at 7 pm mountain time. Come for the out-of-the-box mock drafts and stay for the interactions.

NFL 2023 Top 7 Free Agent Quarterbacks and Their Potential Landing Spot

The 2022 season is over. It is time for those not retired men to find a new payday with their present teams or a new team.

The NFL has announced that the 2023 salary cap is $224.8 million. The projected franchise tag for quarterbacks will be around $32.5 million.

Here are the seven top free-agent quarterbacks and their potential landing spots. The list does not include Derek Carr, who will undoubtedly be traded but technically isn’t a free agent (although he did slay in the precision round at the Pro Bowl).

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