Look, it’s another blowout!! Who would have thought that?? My thoughts as Portland was up 30 on the Timberwolves. We have seen more blowouts or 20 point leads than normal this season. I attribute that to the lack of preseason, but I expect it to change more in the coming weeks. The blowouts have killed me in the last week, but tonight the Blazers benching Damian Lillard for the whole fourth quarter helped keep me in the money.
That is what we aim to do on this big ten-game slate. We hope to stay in the money!! It’s a big slate with a good amount of injury news we will need to monitor. My first impression was this slate will likely be high-scoring. The options at each position is deep. It was hard to find guys that I didn’t have interest in. So, I have narrowed some plays that I like and a few that I don’t, and hopefully it helps you trim down in your player pool.
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Top Play |Â Caris LeVert: We got some early news that Kyrie Irving was going to be out in this game also. With no Kyrie and no Kevin Durant, I don’t have to explain the reasons to play LeVert. His ownership will reflect that he is going to be one of the top plays on the slate. The Nets are short on their offensive firepower, and as we seen against the 76ers, if they’re going to have a chance to win, it will be from the play of LeVert.
Mid-tier |Â Lamelo Ball: In the battle of the Ball brothers, I will take Lamelo. They both are solid plays, but I think Lamelo sets up to be the better of the two. In his last five games, he has played at least 24 minutes and has averaged 36.2 fantasy points per game. It wouldn’t be wrong to say he has looked like the best guard on the Hornets roster. In the games I’ve watched him play, his passing ability has really stood out. I will admit when I’m wrong and I was wrong about Lamelo. He looks good and he can fill the stats sheet up every night. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him push around 28 minutes in this game, and he has the added motivation of playing against Lonzo. For his price and matchup, I think we can safely go back to Lamelo and I intend to do so.
Value |Tyrese Haliburton: The value on Haliburton will depend if De’Aaron Fox is out or not. If Fox is out then Haliburton becomes one of my favorite plays on the slate. In the last game, once Fox left he played 35 minutes and went for 44.3 fantasy points. With Fox out, I think it would be safe to say he plays 30 minutes or more again. At the $5,400 price tag, he has averaged 5x value. If we get the news that Fox is out, I think we see Haliburton with a floor of around 30 fantasy points and upside for much more. I will monitor this news heavily because Haliburton will be in most of my lineups and would be a cash game lock.
Fade |James Harden: It’s not easy to recommend a fade on Harden. It makes me nervous to type that out. I’m not saying to fade Harden because he is a bad play. I think we can find some cheaper guys with high upside and not need to pay the $11,000 price tag. There is 21 guys on the slate that are price $8,000 to $11,000, and Harden is the most expensive. With his shot not falling and usage down over the last few games, I think we can save some salary and go elsewhere.
Others I Like: John Wall, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Cole Anthony
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Top Play |Â Anthony Davis: I haven’t had much exposure to Davis this season so far, but that will change on this slate. He is my favorite pay up option. In 11 career games against the Bulls, he has averaged 24.7 points, 10.8 rebounds, and 3 blocks. I have always used Davis against the Bulls for that reason, he always smashes. We do have blowout concerns possibly. For it to get out of hand, I would think Davis had a big part in that. In this spot, it’s too hard for me not to plug Davis in and build around him. We all have our trends, and one of mine has always been attacking the Bulls with the big guys. Now you have a big who has consistently smashed them. I will be heavy on Davis, especially in GPP.
Mid-tier |Â Zion Williamson: In the last three games, we have seen Zion play at least 30 minutes. When he gets the minutes he can put points up in bunches. The only way he doesn’t get the minutes is if the game gets out of hand early. I’m not going to say it won’t blowout, but I think this one stays close. For it to stay close it’s going to usually be because the play of Zion and Brandon Ingram. I actually like both of these guys quite a bit. If I had to guess, I would say Ingram garners more ownership, so that gives you leverage with Zion. If you’re building game stacks you could put them together, but I will look to keep them out of the same lineups.
Value |Daniel Theis: We have to monitor the news for this to become a good value play. As of now Tristan Thompson and Robert Williams are both questionable. It seems that they are both likely to be out. In that case it would leave Boston thin in the frontcourt. That would be a boost to minutes for Theis. With both guys out, I think Theis would have to play at least 28-30 minutes. At the price of $4,300 in a good matchup with a usage, and minutes bump it puts Theis firmly in play.
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Fade |Pascal Siakam: He is coming of his best game of the season with 51 fantasy points, but before that he averaged 29 fantasy points in his last three games. The consistency is the issue for me right now. I have to see him get on track for a couple of games before I could trust the play.
Others I Like: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Kawhi Leonard, Andrew Wiggins (if no Steph Curry)
Centers
Top Play |Â Julius Randle: If you would have told me I would like Randle at $9,800 before the season, I would have laughed. Well, I’m not laughing now. I like Randle even at that price. He is one of four players to lead his team in points, rebounds, and assists. He is averaging 50.7 fantasy points per game, and at the price that is 5x. I’m still confused about it myself, but we know Coach Thibodeau likes to run his starters in the ground. That has helped make Randle a quality fantasy player in every matchup. The matchup with the Thunder is one he should be able to exploit as well.
Mid-tier |Â Thomas Bryant: We have injury news on both sides that could effect Bryant. The Washington side of things is if Russell Westbrook plays or not. On the other side for Boston, if they’re thin in the frontcourt, he should be able to take advantage of that. If Westbrook misses the game, it makes Bryant the second option to Bradley Beal. At his price he averages a little over 4x the salary, and without Westbrook I think 5x is a safe floor in this one. We will need to watch the injury news, but if Westbrook and the Celtics big guys are out, it will make Bryant a great option.
Value |Marvin Bagley: Here is another one that depends on injury news. There is a chance that Richaun Holmes doesn’t play. That would likely give Bagley some minutes at center too. He is coming off his best game of the year with 46 fantasy points in 29 minutes. If Holmes were to miss it should put Bagley having to play at least 30 minutes. The minutes and the usage bump is enough to make Bagley a great value play in this one.
Fade |Rudy Gobert: He is about as consistent as they come at the position. You know on most nights you’re going to get between 33 and 42 fantasy points. There might be a game he goes for 45 or 46, but Rudy hasn’t flashed a higher ceiling than that. He isn’t going to do anything to hurt you most nights, but he’s also not likely to win you a GPP either. There are guys around his price and cheaper that have a chance to keep on pace with his score, and the upside for more.
Others I Like: Mitchell Robinson, Brandon Clarke, Bobby Portis
May variance be on your side and the DFS gods with you!!!
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