Last week we finished 3-3 and ended up down by a couple of bucks when accounting for the juice, just like the sportsbooks drew it up. It was the week of the running back and those were certainly the bets that came through for us last week. This week I’m taking a bit more of a balanced approach and correlating my prop investments with some of my favorite games against the spread and value spots in DFS. Namely, targeting the LAC/BUF matchup where I’m heavily invested in the over.
Embed from Getty ImagesWayne Gallman: OVER 56.5 Rushing Yards (-112)
This is possibly my favorite play on the board this week. Gallman’s workload has been steadily increasing over the last 4 weeks, with carries of 10, 12, 14, and 18, and he’s averaging a more-than-respectable 4.1 yards/carry on the season. What makes this one truly irresistible is the matchup against 29th ranked Bengals rush defense, who’s giving up over 136 rushing yards per game this season. I see the Giants winning this game handily, largely by winning the time of possession battle, and that will be accomplished on the back of Wayne Gallman.
Kyler Murray: UNDER 8.5 Rushing Attempts (+115)
Plus odds on a player prop is usually an indicator of the long-shot plays that I typically avoid, but this is one of those spots where I’ll make an exception. Kyler Murray is nursing a hurt wing and while his feet will always be a part of the game plan in Arizona, I do expect Kingsbury to limit how many times he carries the ball and exposes himself to further injury. The line is hovering right at Murray’s season average for carries (9.2) and in a game where I expect the Cardinals to largely be in control, I see them deferring carries (and hits) to their recently healthy duo of Kenyan Drake and Chase Edmonds.
Derrick Henry: OVER 86.5 Rushing Yards (-113)
86.5 is a BIG number, even for the reigning rushing champ. Derrick Henry, however, is averaging an absolutely insane 107.9 yards/game on the ground this year, including 103 yards against these Colts just 2 weeks ago. The icing on this cake is that Indianapolis, who was already allowing 111 yards on the ground in their last 3 games, is missing key pieces on defense with Buckner, Okereke, and Autry all on the COVID-19 list. I expect King Henry to reign over the Colts this week and rush right past this line.
Justin Herbert: OVER 15.5 Rush Yards (-110)
This one is a little sneaky. Justin Herbert has shown an ability to buy time in the pocket and move to find the best passing window, but he doesn’t exactly profile as a “mobile” quarterback. In fact, Herbert is averaging just over 20 yards per game on the ground and a respectable 4.7 yards per carry. We’ve seen Herbert be more active with his feet when coverage is tight downfield and with Keenan Allen facing a tough matchup against Tre’Davious White; I expect him to scramble when he can’t find the throws he wants and to blow past this line early in the game.
Cole Beasley: OVER 5.5 Receptions (-105)
Cole Beasley is already one of those sneaky plays who’s prop lines don’t align with his on-field production that I find myself targeting often. When you drop him into what projects to be one of the highest volume spots on the slate, it’s just too good to turn away. Cole Beasley has settled into his dependable, underneath, passing role in the Bills offense where he averages just under 6 catches per game and about 18% target share. The kicker this week is that John Brown has already been ruled out and in games that Brown has missed, Beasley’s target share explodes to over 25%. Look for Cole to stay busy in this shootout against the Chargers.
Golden Tate: OVER 24.5 Receiving Yards (-112)
Honestly, I was going back and forth between this and his 2.5 receptions prop. As a general rule, whenever I’m betting on one of the lower-volume players on the slate I err on the side of yards. Just one catch against this soft Bengals defense can get Tate over the line. Over his past 3 games, Golden Tate is seeing just over 3 targets and accounting for 38 receiving yards; making this line on my favorite soft spots in the market.
Hunt OVER 53.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Back at it again with the white Vans! Hunt’s miss against Philly was definitely one of my biggest disappointments of the week, but I just can’t quit him. This line dropped down by almost 20 yards in one week and that type of movement is always indicative of an overcorrection and needs to be exploited. Hunt did have a VERY rough outing against the Eagles last week, putting up just 11 yards on the ground, but given that his workload (13 carries) is right in-line with his season average; I’m willing to write off this result as an outlier. Hunt has passed this line in 4 of 6 games he’s played with Nick Chubb, where he is averaging 14 carries and 65 yards on the ground. Jacksonville is allowing just over 4.3 yards per carry on the year and given Hunt’s workload and Cleveland’s mission to keep the ball out of Baker Mayfield’s hands; plan on Kareem trotting past this line with ease.
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