I stayed away from betting anything but prop bets in Week 1 like I do most years to start the NFL season. I like to just watch the games and allow some data to be collected without being in full tilt mode, at least for the first Sunday. It gives me the chance to watch, take notes, pay attention to schemes, etc. without any bias. With that being said, Week 2 is here and I’m ready place some bets! Here are a few over/under’s I’m partial to this week and I’ll toss a few props, as well as a parlay I’ll be taking a shot on.
Embed from Getty ImagesNew England Patriots (0-1) @ New York Jets (0-1)
Over/Under- 43
While Zach Wilson started off slow in the first half of Week 1, he did begin to settle down and become more comfortable in the second half. Unfortunately, his level of comfortability will be similar to a fish out of water tomorrow when he faces the Patriots and their head coach Bill Belichick who is 21-6 against rookie quarterbacks. I expect Belichick to throw blitzes, disguises and complicated coverages at the first year QB that will keep him guessing. First downs and scoring opportunities will be slim to none for Wilson and company tomorrow.
The Jet’s will also be without their promising left tackle Mekhi Becton (knee) who is expected to miss 4-6 weeks which will add to their struggles tomorrow afternoon. They only ran 60 plays for an average of 4.2 yards per play against the Panthers in Week 1 and while Carolina’s defense is decent, the Patriots are better and the scoreboard should reflect that when it’s all said and done.
The Patriots are also coming off a low scoring 17-16 loss in Week 1 against the Miami Dolphins. They too had their own offensive struggles. Mac Jones was the best rookie QB to open the season in my opinion but he still has a long way to go in his development process. They are also down an offensive lineman, right tackle, Trent Brown (calf). Being without one of your best pass protectors isn’t ideal for a quarterback in just his second NFL game.
I think the Patriots will play hard nose defense keeping the Jets to very short drives. Offensively, I think they will lean on Damien Harris and their running attack while dialing up intermediate routes to allow Mac Jones to be a game manager. That type of game plan allows the Pats to lessen the risk of starting the season 0-2 but not one that should put many points on the board. I would take this under all the way down to 41.
My Pick: Under 43
Dallas Cowboys (0-1) @ LA Chargers (1-0)
Over/Under- 55
The Chargers offseason moves to bolster their offensive line immediately netted positive results. Herbert was pressured on only 12.2% of his dropbacks, the lowest among all Week 1 starters and they were going against arguably the best defensive line in all of football with Chase Young and the rest of the WFT defensive front. Rashawn Slater looks to be the truth and if the Chargers offensive line is going to be this stout and Herbert is going to be able to pass from a pressure free pocket most of the time, I expect him to lead a top offense this year.
I think we see him ball out against my Dallas Cowboys this week who just lost their top pass rusher in Demarcus Lawrence (foot) and will be down another in Randy Gregory (Covid Protocol). I mean Herbert just put up 300 passing yards and 20 points as a road underdog against a WFT defense that is by far a superior unit to the one the Dallas Cowboys will be putting on display this Sunday. A unit that just allowed Tom Brady to carve them up for 379 yards with a 64% completion rate and four touchdowns.
With that being said, the Cowboys are just as deadly if not deadlier on the offensive side of the ball. Dak Prescott wasted no time getting back into MVP form throwing for 403 yards and 3 touchdowns against a Super Bowl winning defense. He spread the ball around to 8 different receivers but leaned heavily on Amari Cooper and Cee Dee Lamb who should each be peppered in targets again with the absence of Michael Gallup (calf). The WR duo combined for 20 catches on 31 targets, 243 total yards and all 3 of the Cowboys touchdowns.
There should be plenty of offense in a matchup that projects to be the highest total on the slate. The best of this number has passed (opening at 50.5) but I still have no problem betting the over at it’s current total of 55. DraftKings has reported 80% of the bets coming in on the over and 97% of the handle also betting on a high-scoring affair tomorrow in LA.
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My Pick: Over 55
Embed from Getty ImagesHouston Texans (1-0) vs Cleveland Browns (0-1)
Over/Under- 48.5
While both of these teams hit their respected overs last week with the Browns putting up 29 points and the Houston freaking Texan’s scoring a whopping 37! Lets be real, no one expects the Texans to repeat that fate against a well rounded and revamped Cleveland defense.
I expect the Texans to be down big in this one which will force them to abandon their running attack early and force Tyrod to press the issue down field against a very good secondary. That’s not Tyrod Taylors typical approach and even with the extra pass attempts I expect him to take, outside of Brandin Cooks there really isn’t a receiver that’s a real threat.
I don’t see the Texans scoring anymore than 1 to 2 touchdowns in this one, meaning it will be on the Brown’s to score the rest in-order to take this total over the mark of 48.5. After a tough loss last week to the Chiefs, Cleveland is going to want to come out of this game with a win.
I expect them to turn to the best running back duo in the league in Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, turn out long drives while eating up a ton of clock. Chewing up that much clock would have to result in the Brown’s punching it in for 6 on every drive and while that’s not impossible I think it’s a lot to ask any team to play perfect football.
The Browns will be up in this one and lean heavily on their run game to chew up clock. Their defense will play through the whistle for all four quarters to ensure there’s no garbage time touchdowns from the Texans or late comeback heroics keeping this game under the total.
My Pick: Under 48.5
Prop Bets I like
Nick Chubb Over 17.5 Carries
He was on the field for 53% of the snaps in week 1 which I expect to continue in Week 2 with the Browns poised for a run heavy approach. Against Houston last year he ran for 126 yards on 19 carries and the Browns as a team ran the ball for a total of 41 times in a game they won 10-7.
James Robinson Over 9.5 Carries
In week 1 Robinson only ended up seeing 5 carries but was on the field for 64% of the Jaguars offensive snaps. That’s helping keep this over/under down for week 2 but I think Robinson’s lack of carries this past week were a product of game flow. Look for Urban Meyer to lean more heavily on Robinson in Week 2.
Devonta Smith Over 3.5 Receptions
The rookie wideout established himself right from the gate as the clear cut number one receiver in this offense finishing with 8 targets and hauling in 6 of them for 71 yards. The 49ers defense is beat up and they just lost their top cornerback to a season ending ACL injury. Look for Smith to easily go over this number again and I will be continuing to bet his reception props week in and week out until the market catches up.
MoneyLine Parlay
Eagles +140
Cowboys +165
Titans +205
Bet $100.00 to WIN $1,839.80 to PAYOUT $1,939.80
Those are some of my favorite bets for Week 2. Please give me a follow on twitter @Ev_Ritt3 as well as @goingfor_2 @GoingFor2Live
Always open to talking shop and look forward to putting this article out every week this NFL season, it’s going to be a good one! Good luck to all of you and see you next week!
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