Another Sunday, another best Over/Under article coming to you from Goingfor2.com. We just missed on a few of our bets last week but we also had some cash. Overall it wasn’t the best week but as you know, there’s going to be ups and downs throughout the NFL betting season. With that being said, here are my 3 best bets as well as a parlay and some prop bets I”ll be placing for NFL Week 3.
Embed from Getty ImagesArizona Cardinals (2-0) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (0-2)
Over/Under- 52
The Cardinals are one of the prolific offenses in the league so far in 2021. They rank 2nd in total yards (445.0), 3rd in pass yards (325.5) and 2nd in points scored (36.0) per game. They now get to face a bottom-of-the-barrel defense in the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jags have given up a total of 60 points in their first 2 games which were agains the Houston Texans and the Denver Broncos. Neither of those offenses compare to the Cardinals, who I expect to put points up in bunches tomorrow afternoon.
We have to keep an eye on Deandre Hopkins who will be a game time decision with a rib injury but either way it’s not hard to count on Kyler Murray and company to absolutely eviscerate the Jaguars. I don’t see anyway the Jags are able to stop Murray through the air or on the ground.
The Cardinals have put up 72 points total in their first 2 games. So hanging 40 against arguably the worst defense in the NFL should be a walk in the park. That means we will only need 2 touchdowns from Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars who I expect to to be chasing scores all game.
That feels like a very likely scenario, in which case I’m on the over in this one.
My Pick: Over 52
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New York Jets (0-2) @ Denver Broncos (2-0)
Over/Under- 42
The Broncos have covered in their first 2 games but despite two good offensive performances they also managed to hit the under in both games. They managed to go under game totals of 45 and 42. That speaks to the Broncos identity in 2021, which starts with their defense who has been absolutely outstanding to begin the season. The Broncos are top 5 in passing, rushing and total yards allowed per game, while only giving up 13 points in both of their games so far.
We know a Teddy Bridgewater led offense is going to be smart with the ball, short high percentage passes without taking much risk. A top defense and a low risk adverse quarterback is a recipe for a low scoring affair.I don’t see Denver’s approach to change on offense and I expect their defense to continue their dominance against rookie quarterback Zach Wilson who looks to be lost in between the lines to start his career.
Even with an unlikely explosion of offense from the Bronco’s, their defense will handle business and keep this one under the total for the 3rd game in a row.
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My Pick: Under 42
Embed from Getty ImagesGreen Bay Packers (1-1) @ San Francisco 49ers (2-0)
Over/Under- 49.5
This total is continuing to rise with bettors expecting a high scoring game tomorrow evening in California. Personally I agree, with Green Bay pulling out the win in the end.
Anytime you have Aaron Rodgers with Jimmy Garoppolo on the other side, at the games most important position, you’re going to have a tremendous edge. We need to throw that Week 1 loss out the window, it’s not indicative of how Aaron Rodgers and Green bay are going to play moving forward. They’re coming off two 13-3 seasons and at the beginning of the year a lot of people pegged them to win the SB.
Last year Devante Adams chewed this niners secondary up for 10 receptions and 173 yards. I’m projecting another huge game out of him to again tomorrow night against a injury depleted 49er’s secondary.
Th 49ers only put up 17 points against the Eagles last week, Jimmy G is far from the QB Aaron Rodgers is and they have a ton of questions at RB. If they can’t get consistent production out of one their running backs tomorrow then Shanahan may have no choice but to abandon handing it off which he has done over 50% of the time this year.
If Garoppolo does have to throw more he should have plenty of time to do it against this Packers pass rush who has only generated pressure on 14 of 57 QB drop backs in 2 games so far in 2021. Not to mention the 49er’s have a very good offensive line who is fourth best in the league in both pass-block win rate (68%) and adjusted sack rate (3.8%).
I think this one’s a shootout with plenty of big plays from lots of pass attempts on each side, which will lead to a lot of touchdowns. A great combination of events to cash in on the over. It also doesn’t hurt to know the over has went 9-3 in the last 12 meetings between Green Bay and San Francisco, I’m on the over in this one.
My Pick: Over 49.5/Green Bay ML
3 leg Parlay
Cowboys -3.5
Packers +3.5/Over
Seahawks -1.5/Over
A few prop bets I have already placed…
(DM me on twitter for the rest of my picks)
Justin Jefferson O/U 77.5 yards receiving (-115)
The Seahawks have given up 22 catches for 321 yards and 2 touchdowns to wideouts over the first two weeks. I love the over in this game so I expect a ton of scoring in which I project Jefferson to be a large part of that and the best receiver in this game, possibly on the week.
My Bet: Over 77.5 yards receiving
Robert Woods O/U 0/5 Rush Yards (-135)
We know how stout the Bucs run defense is so Sean McVay will be looking for creative ways to get around it, not to mention he’s going into this game with a banged up backfield. Woods has 60 carries over the past three seasons, I can see him being a go to option for a few gadget plays in-order to keep this Bucs defense guessing.
My Bet: Over 0.5 rushing yards
Daniel Jones O/U 26.5 rushing yards (-115)
When Saquan Barkley is your running back it’s hard to believe your leading rusher would be Daniel Jones but that has been the case so far through both of the Giants games this season. While I expect Barkley to get going in this game, between designed runs and scrambles due to a weak offensive line, Jones should easily be able to clear this prop.
My Bet: Over 25.5 rushing yards
That will do it for this weeks article. If you like the content please be sure to give me a follow on Twitter @ev_ritt3 and tune in next week for Week 4’s bets.
Until then, thanks for reading and good luck to all of you heading to the betting windows!
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