Last week was a real kick in the teeth. We managed to put up a winning effort at 5-4, many of which were at even or plus odds, but man do I hate getting caught by the hook. We were a Jonathan Taylor half-yard and a Gio Bernard ridiculous benching away from a HUGE 7-2 week. Now that I’ve vented – on to Week 15. This week’s lines feel pretty sharp and I find my eye drawn toward more unders and low-lines than usual. There are also a couple of spots where the market doesn’t look to have adjusted for injury or other correlations and that’s where we focus our attention for Week 15.
Embed from Getty ImagesKyler Murray – UNDER 8.5 Rushing Attempts (-115)
This play has been a staple of this article week in and week out. Kyler’s rushing attempts have bottomed out ever since he hurt his shoulder a few weeks back and we have been hammering the under on this line. This week I’m at the same place but got there a different way. Last week Murray’s carries did revert back to the volume we saw at the beginning of the year (13), so I am less concerned with him feeling the need to minimize contact to protect his shoulder. This play is all about DeAndre Hopkins. Nuk will be the beneficiary of Darius Slay’s absence this week and stands to have an explosive game. With such a reliable target conceivably wide open all day, the need for Kyler to carry the ball himself will be minimized and that has me really happy going under on 8.5 rushes.
Embed from Getty ImagesTodd Gurley – UNDER 35.5 Total Yards (-105)
This one is worth shopping around for. Not many books carry total yards lines in general, but this one is worth the extra research. Generally, Gurley’s rushing yard line is sitting around 26, and his receiving mark around 5.5. Anytime you come across a total yards line that is this disparate from the combined individual lines, you have to pounce. Couple this soft-spot in the market with the fact that Gurley’s opportunity share has been plummeting for weeks, down to just 34% of snaps last week, and an absolutely BRUTAL matchup against the Buccaneers this week; This under is one of my favorite plays on the board this week.
Embed from Getty ImagesD.J. Chark – OVER 46.5 Receiving Yards (-105)
This matchup against the Ravens defense sounds like a fade on paper, but when you consider that the entire starting secondary is on the injury report this week it warrants a closer look. Jimmy Smith, having already been ruled out for this game, and Marcus Peters, who turned in a DNP on Friday, headlines the group of five Raven CBs with injury designations. All of this sets up nicely for Chark who averages almost 54 receiving yards and over 100 air yards per game and who gets to rekindle his bromance with QB Gardner Minshew returning to the starting lineup. With how often D.J. Chark is targeted downfield, this one could be over early.
Embed from Getty Images
Jameson Crowder – OVER 3.5 Receptions (EVEN)
William Hill is the only place where I found a line published for Crowder and, with his questionable tag, it is soft on the over. Reporting out of New York suggests that Crowder is expected to play against the Rams this week and I expect these odds to adjust significantly as we get closer to game time. Yes, the Rams are allowing the 2nd fewest yards to receivers on the season but the slot CB is the “weakest” position in that backfield and they do allow a fair number of receptions per game. Crowder is averaging almost 8 targets and 5 receptions per game and this game-script that sets up nicely for heavy passing attempts from the Jets. This is a glaring soft-spot in the prop market and I am hammering the over here!
Embed from Getty ImagesDarius Slayton – UNDER 37.5 Receiving Yards (-112)
I have a love/hate relationship with sweating lines this low, especially with a player who is mostly used as a down-field threat, but this one is too good to pass up. Daniel Jones is trending toward missing this week’s game against the Browns and another week of Colt McCoy at the helm. In games where McCoy is under center, Slayton is averaging just 3.5 targets and a whopping 15 yards/game. Add that to a matchup against the #5 ranked CB in Denzel Ward and Darius Slayton is a clear fade this week. Happy sweating!!
J.K. Dobbins – OVER 8.5 Receiving Yards (-111)
If you manage to find ANY receiving lines out there for the Ravens, hit me up! The entire Ravens receiving room is back in the tangles of a COVID outbreak and most books have pulled down their betting lines until the situation gets less murky. In the meantime, Dobbins’ line is still available and hasn’t budged from where it has been all season. A line this low really equates to whether or not you think J.K. catches a pass and in a game where there might not be a single starting option available to Lamar Jackson in the passing game. I’ll take that bet
**Note – I’ll be walking away from this bet should any of the pass-catcher for Baltimore end up playing**
ATTN Dynasty Commissioners: Do you want to do something cool for your league? How about a 1-hour live show dedicated to YOUR league? Team-by-team breakdowns, rankings, and more. For details and to book a show, visit: GoingFor2.com/plp.
