I asked the GoingFor2 team a bunch of questions about the upcoming Super Bowl, and this is what they had to say…
Most Passing Yards Brock Purdy (+14.5) yards or Patrick Mahomes (-14.5)?
This is a tough one as I would like to root for Purdy but it is hard to bet against Mahomes in the spotlight. Over the last three games, Purdy is averaging just over 249 yards through the air while Mahomes is just behind him at 239. With Purdy getting +14.5, I want to put my money here. Over the last two weeks, San Fran has held Jared Goff to 273 and Jordan Love to 194. Conversely, KC allowed 272 to Jackson and only 186 to Allen. Predicting a shootout where Mahomes has to throw often and CMC being unstoppable I would recommend going with Mahomes. @QuinnFloydG
Embed from Getty ImagesMost Rushing Yards Isiah Pacheco (+23.5) or Christian McCaffrey (-23.5)?
If the Chiefs can find a way to stop CMC – more power to them, but you won’t catch me betting against Christian McCaffrey going “god mode” in the biggest game of his career on the NFL’s biggest stage and leaving everyone else in the dust. The potential return of Jerrick McKinnon is an underrated development that would make the KC backfield (also with former 1st round pick Clyde Edwards-Helaire) a three-headed monster – and even though my fellow NJ native and Rutgers alum Isiah Pacheco would remain at the head of any committee by a wide margin, that just reinforces the play to push the bet to CMC. @TFSDoc
Most Receptions Deebo Samuel (+1.5) or Rashee Rice (-1.5)?
As @targetshares stated, the Chief’s defense has been good against the pass. 4th in pass yards allowed per game with 176.5 yds. Mahomes has been much more efficient in the postseason than the regular season, as has Kelce which makes me think the 49ers will be covering Kelce well. In turn, that opens up Rice. The thing is Deebo is better and more experienced than Rice.
I know Mahomes is better than Purdy but I believe in the 49ers more. I think it’ll go back and forth and with the Chiefs blitz, Deebo and CMC will be there for the easier receptions unlike Rice since that’s mainly Pacheco’s role. In both divisional games, each WR had 8 receptions. Vegas has Rice’s o/u at 6.5 receptions and Deebo’s at 4.5, but I want Deebo here. @luvtractor3
Most Receiving Yards Brandon Aiyuk (+3.5) or Rashee Rice (-3.5)
The Chiefs defense has been incredibly stingy against opposing WR1s this season. They’ve allowed their opponent’s WR1 to earn over 73 receiving yards just once. However, that one time was last week with Zay Flowers going off for 115 receiving yards. And, I’d bet that the Chiefs’ defensive prowess is already fully priced into the market. Speaking of the market, it’s not fully clear that Aiyuk should be the player gaining the 3.5-yard buffer.
As of writing this, the odds on DraftKings for Brandon Aiyuk to lead all players in receiving yards is +210. The odds are slimmer for Rashee Rice at +320. Additionally, my modeling doesn’t think the difference in team pass attempts is as large as the market does. As a result, I like Aiyuk over Rice in receiving yards straight up. But I’ll take the extra 3.5 yards to bet on ESPN Analytics’ number-one-rated receiver in 2023. @TargetShares
Receiving Yards George Kittle (+26.5) or Travis Kelce (-26.5)
Kelce should be leaned on heavily for this game as he is without question the top target in the offense. Over the last three games, Kelce has averaged just over 87 yards. On the other side, Kittle has averaged just 48 yards. San Francisco’s offense is loaded with playmakers so any of them can pop off but the odds are it won’t be Kittle. Take Kelce and feel good that the odds are in your favor. @QuinnFloydG
Embed from Getty ImagesThe 49ers have won the Super Bowl and the MVP is _____? Why?
Smart money says go QB for Super Bowl MVP; however, I am going a different route with Christian McCaffrey. There hasn’t been an RB to win the Super Bowl MVP since Terrell Davis in 1997 (XXXII), where he finished with 32 touches, 165 total yards, and 3 total TDs. While there are many playmakers on the 49ers offense, even against a stingy run defense in the NFC Conference Championship McCaffrey generated 132 total yards and 2 TD’s on 24 touches. And for the sake of Super Bowl narratives, it was Christian’s dad, Ed, who was on that Super Bowl team that saw Davis win the MVP. Fire it up, Christian McCaffrey is your Super Bowl LVIII MVP! @FatherDynasty
The Chiefs have won the Super Bowl and Mahomes is NOT the MVP, who is it? Why?
As it’s been already stated, QBs are the favorites for Super Bowl MVP (they have won 32 out of 57 MVP awards after all, and Patrick Mahomes has two of them in his trophy case already…) but what if THIS year was different, well let me make an argument for none other than…Mr. Travis Kelce. Now sure, a Tight End has never actually won Super Bowl MVP, but…Travis Kelce isn’t just any tight end – he functions more like a Wide Receiver (WRs have won 8 SB MVPs for what it’s worth) and he’s really the top pass-catching option on the Chiefs and has been all year – but there’s more. Kelce is one of the best to ever play the position and a lead-pipe-lock future Hall of Famer. Want more? Okay.
He’s a co-host of a very successful podcast (with his brother Jason who is also a future HOFer), a fun interview, very quotable, high energy, and immensely likable. All things that the NFL would love to showcase and then some. But there’s one more thing…There’s a pretty good chance that his girlfriend Taylor Swift will be in attendance as well – and whatever you think of her and her music (I think she’s great by the way – sue me), NO ONE can argue that she’s brought tens of thousands of new fans and MILLIONS (if not tens or hundreds of millions) of dollars to the NFL this year.
Now, call me a conspiracy theorist if you want, but the NFL didn’t get to be a 4 BILLION DOLLAR A YEAR business by accident, and if the Chiefs win and Kelce has a good enough/impactful enough game to make a plausible argument for the award, I think eschewing the QB with 2 SB MVPs already in the bag for the chance to hand the hardware to Travis Kelce on the NFL’s biggest stage, on their biggest night, while he’s celebrating with one of the biggest and most popular musical artists…ever miiiight just be too big of an opportunity for the NFL Marketing Team to pass up. The good news is, we’ll find out soon enough! @TFSDoc
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What on-field head-to-head matchup are you most excited to see?
As the resident 49ers fan here at GoingFor2 I will be watching our defense against the Kansas City run game. I’m not sure I’d use the word “excited” with how the 49ers defense has played in these playoffs. Aaron Jones rushed for 108 yards on 18 carries in the Divisional Round and of course, everyone saw the Lions dominate the 49ers in the first half of the Championship round with the majority of it coming on the ground. The 49ers will need to set the tone early and dare I say, “force Patrick Mahomes to throw it” if they want to have a chance to win this game. If the Chiefs’ run game can move the ball and get first downs on the 49ers defense, it will be a long game for them. @geofflambert77
Embed from Getty ImagesFor the 49ers to win this game they must _______
The key to winning any game when playing a QB of Mahomes’s caliber is to limit the turnovers. The 49ers simply can’t afford to face the same deficits they did in both the Divisional Round and NFC Championship. The Chiefs are an astounding 37-3 when going into halftime with a double-digit lead. You will not be able to play your worst football in the first half and simply out-will the other team in the second, that’s not how it works with the Chiefs. The limiting of turnovers for the 49ers is also extremely dependent upon the success of their ground game.
The 49ers must position themselves so that they are the ones dictating the game flow, allowing them to open up shot plays downfield due to the defense’s over-commitment to the run. To do this you have to run early and often, impose your will on the defense. Like many of the 49er’s games this season, CMC is the key to victory. If he can rush for over 75 yards (12-1 in games he does) I see the Chief’s somewhat lackluster run defense (allowing 4.5 YPC on the season) not being able to corral this explosive 49ers offense. @FFMailMann
For the Chiefs to win this game, they must ______
Continue to play great defense. Sure the Chiefs are in their 4th SB in 5 years, but instead of “shock and awe” offense and “Pat Mahomes heroics,” defense has been KC’s calling card pretty much all year. So for the Chiefs to win; their D will need to be one of the few teams this year to stop Christian McCaffrey both on the ground and through the air AND find a way to get the clock to strike midnight on the Brock Purdy Cinderella story. If they can do those things, there is a really good chance that we’ll have back-to-back Super Bowl Champions for the first time since 2005. @TFSDoc
Who’s that one player for the 49ers that no one is talking about that could play a huge role in the outcome of this game?
Ladies and gentlemen, I give you Jauan Jennings. WR110 for fantasy in the 2023 season Jennings is “The Other Guy”. When Deebo Samuel went out with an injury in the Green Bay Packers game, Jennings stepped in for five receptions and 61 yards. He is on the field for 45.8% of the offensive snaps (mainly because of his blocking ability) but that makes him available.
Jennings has the highest win rate versus man coverage (45.1%), more than Samuel (24.5%) and Brandon Aiyuk (37%). The Kansas City Chiefs play press man although they will put in Cover 2 and Cover 4 zones. For the season Jennings has +14.4 EPA. With the Kansas City defense attempting to shut down Christian McCaffrey look for Kyle Shanahan to dial up some plays for “the Other Guy”. @GladysLtyler
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