Last week was our first week writing an article with our favorite THRIVE fantasy picks and we put up a very respectable 3-1 effort. Our only miss was a longshot pick of Austin Ekeler rushing yards but we still found ourselves on the right side of the payline. This week, the lines on THRIVE look to be very sharp, but there are a couple of spots where I think we can find an edge. Again, playing on THRIVE these past couple of weeks have been an absolute blast and THEY’RE GIVING AWAY FREE MONEY – just use promo code ARMCHAIR and they’ll match your 1st deposit up to $50!!
Embed from Getty ImagesFAVORITE
Ryan Tannehill – OVER 17.5 Completions (80pts)
This is one of the biggest favorites on the slate and for good reason. Tannehill is averaging just over 20 pass attempts per game and this game projects as one where he should have a clean pocket to throw from; a setting where he’s completing more than 70% of his passes. Also, for however much we want to poke fun at the Jaguars, Jacksonville manages to stay in more games than you’d expect and allow opposing QBs to complete a little better than 24 passes per game.
UNDERDOG
Embed from Getty ImagesAllen Robinson – OVER 0.5 Receiving TDs (115pts)
This one is for the math nerds. Allen Robinson’s prop to score a TD currently sits at +105 on the betting market, so what equates to +115 here on THRIVE presents us with a nice little value spot. Let’s not forget that Allen Robinson has scored 3 TDs in 5 games with Trubisky under center and this week he walks into this game against a Houston team allowing 1.33 TD’s per game to opposing wide receivers and a matchup in the 111th ranked CB in Vernon Hargraves.
Embed from Getty ImagesDrew Lock – UNDER 1.5 Passing TDs (115pts)
I’ve run through this one with a fine-toothed comb and I can’t for the life of me figure out why this play is offering plus odds. Yes, Drew Lock sneakily has one of the more impressive sets of pass-catchers at his disposal but he’s also only managed 1 passing TD per game, even with all of those weapons on the field. The matchup against the Panthers projects to be one of the lower-scoring affairs on the slate and their defense against the pass is actually a bit better than the league average. I usually opt-out of lines like this one, but the odds here are too good to pass up.
DARK HORSE
Embed from Getty ImagesEzekiel Elliot – OVER 97.5 Total Yards (100pts)
I’ll admit it – I don’t love this bet. Ezekiel Elliot has been one of the more disappointing players of the last 5 or 6 weeks. While his productivity has left a lot to be desired, he’s still seeing an elite workload week in and week out – touching the ball about 20 times per game on average. Pair that with a matchup against a Cincinnati Bengals team that is averaging 148.5 total yards/game to opposing running backs and I think this play actually presents an interesting opportunity to get different with your lineup.
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