First, let’s just get this out of the way! I am beginning to realize how John Elway felt when evaluating quarterbacks for the Denver Broncos. It’s not a sweet feeling, my friends.
Last week the top five fantasy quarterbacks were mostly the usual suspects:
- Lamar Jackson, 40.42 fantasy points (Baltimore, you done messed up now that man is about to get PAID)
- Jalen Hurts, 27.60 fantasy points
- Josh Allen, 26.70 fantasy points
- Trevor Lawrence, 25.18 fantasy points
- Joe Burrow, 23.00 fantasy points
All I have to say to Lawrence is, “Welcome to the party, pal”! Pretty sure we will see you here again.
And should I explain Matthew Stafford’s 12.7 fantasy day? Can I? It was the first time he had not thrown a touchdown as a Los Angeles Ram. It ended his 24-game touchdown streak. The two drops in the end zone were painful. Am I making excuses for both of us, probably? Except Stafford did throw for 249 yards with zero interceptions and, yes, zero touchdowns, and his team won the game. So, who am I really making excuses for?
Let’s not dwell on the past and move on…shall we? And for those of us who don’t have the top four or five to put in, let’s see what the week has for us.
QUARTERBACKS
MUST START
Cooper Rush, Dallas Cowboys v Washington
Rush is currently 3-0 as a starter in the NFL. It helps that Cee Dee Lamb decided to join the gang, and Rush discovered that Noah Brown is pretty good at football.
This week the Cowboys will play Washington. Washington has allowed the fifth most passing yards per game (274). They have allowed an average of 22 completions per game (15th). And they have given up the second most fantasy points to the quarterback position (27.3).
MEH
Matt Ryan, Indianapolis Colts v Tennessee Titans
The fact is (if you can say “fact” after three games, Ryan is better when Michael Pittman is on the field. For “proof,” with Pittman on the field throws for over two hundred yards. Without Pittman throws for 195 yards. With Pittman on the field throws for three total touchdowns and one interception. Without Pittman on the field, throw for zero touchdowns and three interceptions. See?
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Or maybe Ryan is better when he is not playing the Jacksonville Jaguars. It’s a small sample size, so it’s hard to say definitively.
What we do know is that a) Pittman will be playing this game, b) the Titans are allowing the ninth-most passing yards (256.3), and c) the Titans are given up the fourth most fantasy points to the quarterback position.
TEMPER YOUR EXPECTATIONS
Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Chargers @ San Francisco 49ers
On paper, it appears Stafford is in a less-than-ideal position. The 49ers have allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to the quarterback position. The 49ers have only played Justin Fields, Geno Smith, and Russell Wilson. Now, not to throw shade at any of the gentlemen mentioned above, but…ahem.
Also, the 49ers’ defense is legit. But supposedly (thinking back on last week), so is Stafford.
Stafford hasn’t thrown for less than 240 yards this season, and his touchdown-to-interception ratio is 4:5. None of that is good news. I am sort of hoping that things get better. After three weeks, Stafford currently sits as QB23 (behind Smith, Baker Mayfield, and Daniel Jones, to name a few). Things have to get better soon… right?
It is a Monday Night Football game with the third-lowest predictive total and the 49ers a 1.5-point favorite at home.
LONGSHOT
Russell Wilson, Denver Broncos @ Las Vegas Raiders
I know, I should stop this. And after this week, if it doesn’t happen, I will…most likely. But this is a matchup that just smells get right, Russ time.
The Raiders are a mess. Thanks, Josh McDaniels, on both sides of the ball.
The Raiders have allowed the sixth-most passing yards (267) and have given up the sixth-most fantasy points to the quarterback position (25.3). The secondary is 29th in passing defense. The defense is blitzing twice as much as they did a year ago, but they only have two sacks on the season.
Wilson, one more time, Let’s Ride.
WEEK 3 TOP 5 SCORING RUNNING BACKS (PPR)
- Khalil Herbert, 30.9 fantasy points
- Derrick Henry, 25.3 fantasy points
- Jamaal Williams, 24.7 fantasy points
- Devin Singletary, 24.1 fantasy points
- Saquon Barkley, 22.6 fantasy points
RUNNING BACK
MUST START
Khalil Herbert, Chicago Bears @ New York Giants
This feels way too easy. The Bears run the ball on 65.41% of their offensive plays (1st in the NFL). They average 34.7 rushing attempts per game (34.7).
Last week Herbert was on the field for 60% of the snap count, and he collected 157 yards and two touchdowns on 20 carries. And the cherry on top, the Giants are giving away the third-most fantasy points to the running back position.
Don’t overthink it.
MEH
Rashaad Penny, Seattle Seahawks @ Detroit Lions
The matchup is running back delight. This has less to do with Penny than with the Seahawks’ offense. The Lions give the second most fantasy points to the running back position.
But this game has a sneaky shoot-out feel, and the Lions are a six-point favorite at home.
Last week Penny was on the field for 69% (teehee) of the offensive plays. Dee Jay Dallas had a whopping 21% snap share. I say whopping because Dallas came out of nowhere when Travis Homer went down. Penny had 14 carries to Dallas’s three carries. But Dallas had two targets and Penny only one. So, in a shoot-out, look for Kenneth Walker…wait, what?
See, that’s what I mean. Walker had three targets on a 3% snap share last week. Who knows what they are going to do? Penny should be the man. But remember that he hasn’t scored over seven fantasy points this season in a game.
TEMPER YOUR EXPECTATIONS
Aaron Jones/AJ Dillon, Green Bay Packers @ New England Patriots
The Patriots’ defense is a welcome wagon through the air. They have allowed six touchdowns through the air and only one rushing touchdown. And that stat is absolutely skewed by Mr. Jackson of the Baltimore Ravens, who had four touchdowns through the air and one rushing touchdown.
So, to rephrase, no running back has scored a rushing touchdown on the Patriots. But to be fair, this duo is far from just plain running backs.
LONGSHOT
Clyde Edward-Helaire, Kansas City Chiefs @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
This would be an aw hell Nah for me, but I understand for some, with the draft capital you have spent, you are going to play him. So, think of this as a cautionary tale.
Week3 lost among the bruhaha of the Patrick Mahomes v Eric Bieniemy saga was the seven rushing attempts, zero yards, and one touchdown stat of CEH. Seven rushing attempts, zero yards, and one touchdown. You got that, right?
Yes, he also had five receptions for 39 yards, but it appears he is becoming an afterthought in an offense that is trying to find its way. Last week he was on the field for 40% of the offensive snaps. In Week2, he was on the field for 44% of the offensive snaps. That’s trending the wrong way.
Oh, and Tampa Bay is legit good against the run. But you knew that.
WEEK 3 TOP 5 FANTASY SCORING WIDE RECEIVERS (PPR)
- DeVonta Smith, 30.9
- Mack Hollins, 30.0
- Marquise Brown, 28.0
- Russell Gage, 24.7
- Zay Jones, 24.5
WIDE RECEIVER
MUST START
Cee Dee Lamb, Dallas Cowboys v Washington
I never thought I would be writing that. I am one of those who firmly believe that Lamb is a WR2 when he is at his best. But last week against the New York Giants (who were statistically good against wide receivers), Lamb recorded eight receptions on 12 targets for 87 yards and a touchdown. Yep, it could have been two if you were a glass-half-full kind of person.
This week the Cowboys play Washington, whose defense has been very generous to the wide receiver position. They are giving up the second-most fantasy points to the wide receiver position (31.7).
Here is something to watch for, Lamb has taken 36% of his snaps from the slot, while Noah Brown has a 30.8% slot snap rate. Washington has given up more fantasy points to the receiver playing wide (34.1) than the slot receiver (12.4). (Those amazing stats, thanks, Bobby LaMarco over at Razzball)
MEH
Drake London, Atlanta Falcons v Cleveland Browns
I like Drake London. I like his matchup against the Browns, who allow the sixth most fantasy points to the wide receiving position (26.3).
I don’t like that the Falcons are 31st in passing attempts per game (26.3).
TEMPER YOUR EXPECTATIONS
Rashaad Bateman, Baltimore Ravens v Buffalo Bills
This is a nasty matchup all the way around. The Bills’ defense only allows an average of 16.3 fantasy points per game to the wide receiving position.
Last week Bateman was on the field for a 62.71% snap share. He ran 27 routes and was targeted four times. He didn’t receive his first reception until the fourth quarter.
Do not be mistaken. This offense is the Jackson-Mark Andrews show. And this matchup is the weekend marquee event between the two best quarterbacks in football.
Bring your popcorn. Just don’t roster Bateman.
LONGSHOT
Brandin Cooks, Houston Texans v Los Angeles Chargers
Again, this is less about the talent of the receiver than the offensive system for which he plays.
The Chargers allow the seventh most fantasy points to the wide receiver position (25.7). Cooks was on the field for 88.14% of the offensive snaps last week. He ran 32 routes. But he was only targeted six times.
Do you believe in Davis Mills? That’s pretty much you have to decide. The Chargers are a 6.5-point favorite. The game script would dictate that the Texans need to throw the ball. Cooks should be the man. Do you trust Mills to make it so?
WEEK 3 TOP 5 FANTASY SCORING TIGHT ENDS (PPR)
- Mark Andrews, 28.9
- David Njoku, 23.9
- Travis Kelce, 17.9
- Tyler Conklin, 16.4
- Jelani Woods, 15.3
TIGHT ENDS
MUST START
David Njoku, Cleveland Browns @ Atlanta Falcons
Oh, David Njoku, who decides to play up to his potential against my Pittsburgh Steelers. Yes, fantasy fans, Njoku had 10 targets, nine receptions for 89 yards, and one touchdown last week against the Steelers.
This week he plays the Falcons, who are giving up the third-most fantasy points to the tight end position. That’s all I have to say about that.
MEH
Ian Thomas, Carolina Panthers v Arizona Cardinals
After fixing their tight end problem last season, the Cardinals have regressed to two seasons ago and are the worst defense against tight ends.
Now having said that, the Carolina Panthers’ offense is painful to watch. Thomas should ball. Baker Mayfield is throwing him the ball. Um, that hasn’t turned out too well just yet.
TEMPER YOUR EXPECTATIONS
Irv Smith Jr., Minnesota Vikings v New Orleans Saints (London Game)
This is an early Sunday morning game. I believe 930am if you are on the East Coast. Nevertheless, if you are rostering Smith, it’s an early game, and the Saints have only allowed one fantasy point to the tight end position.
LONGSHOT
George Kittle, San Francisco 49ers v Los Angeles Rams
I love everything I know and see about Kittle. I don’t love this matchup against the Rams, who are giving up the third-fewest fantasy points to the tight end position.
But I do love Kittle.
“I’M SO GLAD I LIVE IN A WORLD WHERE THERE ARE OCTOBERS.”—L.M. MONTGOMERY ANNE OF GREEN GABLES
A little premature, but when Sunday hits, it will be October! Happy October, everyone, and get those league-winning lineups in!
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