”The Case for…” is a new series I’m going to do over the next few months where I feature one player, and, well, make a case for him to be a fantasy standout this season. The first player on my list is Bears’ RB David Montgomery.
Let’s start with Montgomery’s workload in 2019. He had 242 carries for a mere 889 yards and six TDs, while also catching 25 passes on 35 targets for another 185 yards and one TD. Let’s break those numbers down.
First off, that’s 267 total touches for a rookie RB. That’s the highest amount of touches for any rookie running back last season, slightly ahead of Josh Jacob’s. Jacob’s missed a few games, so he likely would have ended up with more, but sticking with just Montgomery here, 267 touches is a lot. In fact, it was 12th in the league overall. So this stat works in his favor.
Next we have the efficiency. He averaged 3.7 yards per carry, and when looked at as a static number, it doesn’t look good. However, he faced more stacked boxes (8 or more defenders at the LOS) on his runs than did Ezekiel Elliott, Nick Chubb, Saquon Barkley and Joe Mixon. Mitch Trubisky wasn’t exactly scaring defenses to back off.
Montgomery broke 28 tackles in 2019, which ties him for third in the NFL with Seahawks running back Chris Carson. It doesn’t help that the Bears’ offensive line’s adjusted line yards was a mere 3.86, fourth worst in the league and were ranked 31st in their power ranking overall (via FootballOutsiders.com). The unfortunate part of this for Montgomery is the Bears did little to improve their offensive line, they will just have to play better in 2020.
Okay, that was a lot of statistical mumbo jumbo that basically says, Montgomery wasn’t great last year, but he wasn’t terrible — and not all of it was his fault. The workload is there with 260-plus touches, which could increase in 2020 if the Bears can be even slightly more competitive this year.
Now let’s get to the real reasons why I like David Montgomery for 2020…
“With the 43rd pick in the 2020 NFL draft, the Chicago Bears select…” RB Cam Akers? Nope. RB J.K. Dobbins? Nope.
Ok, but they had two second-round picks…
”With the 50th pick in the 2020 NFL Draft, the Chicago Bears select…” Surely it’s Cam Akers this time, right? Nope. J.K. Dobbins then? Nope.
That’s right, they twice passed on drafting one of the top four-to-five running backs in this year’s class, despite the fact that Montgomery was not very efficient in his rookie season, and their other running back, Tarik Cohen, is going into the last year of his contract and the Bears will likely be unable to retain his services. The third running back behind Montgomery and Cohen is undrafted 2nd-year player Ryan Nall who had two touches all of last season.
I’ve said this before and I’ll say it again, opportunity trumps talent. Personally, I think Montgomery is a talented — albeit not special — player, and he will be given every opportunity to succeed this year. It is a very realistic possibility that he eclipses the 300 touch plateau this season. Not to mention, they brought in Nick Foles, and while I don’t think he is a great quarterback, he is better than Trubisky, and he isn’t afraid to throw it down the field to keep those safeties from creeping up to the line of scrimmage.
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Montgomery finished as the RB24 last season. A low-end RB2, but everyone will have you believe that he was downright un-startable. He is being drafted as the RB27 in PPR leagues and 62nd player overall, behind players like Raheem Mostert and DeVante Parker. There is no doubt that if he stays healthy, he will finish much higher than that, and if the cards fall right, he could flirt with high-end RB2 value.
And that is “The Case for David Montgomery.” Thank you for reading. As always, you disagree with my take, comment below or hit me up on Twitter @geofflambert77.
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