It’s @TheBLeagueSays here with this week’s ‘Game Plan’, where I give you plays to make for seasonal and daily roster construction, prop bets, and dynasty evaluations. Before you make any start and sit decisions this weekend make sure you check out our weekly rankings also.
Thank you, and enjoy!
Slant Route
Pack it up, pack it in:
Let me begin: you came to win, battle thee that’s a sin. And what would be a sin is not stacking Aaron Rodgers ($7500 vs OPRK or 25th to quarterbacks) and his receivers over the next three weeks. Along with that, the beautiful thing with Green Bay also is that for the next month they are still vying for that top spot in the NFC as they are still one win off New Orleans, as the Saints still have Kansas in their future. For all intents, the Packers are likely playing a full-strength team through to Week 17 with the coveted ‘Bye in the Playoffs’ at stake and a soft schedule over December I believe puts the Packers at the top of the table.
Speaking of positive matchups, Green Bay meets Detroit, Carolina, and Tennessee all of which allow quarterbacks to go ham on them. Since 2015, Aaron Rodgers has had less than two touchdowns only once against Detroit (which was in Week 17 where he made five pass attempts total for 26 yards), under 250 passing yards only twice, and lost only twice in that span. Using Davante Adams this week ($9300 vs OPRK of 25th to wide receivers) is the easy yet expensive call to make, so I like teaming Rodgers this week with a cheaper stack using Allen Lazard ($5000) instead.
Flat Route
Wentz on a bench:
Yeah ok, picking on Carson Wentz and the Philadelphia Eagles right now is like shooting fish in a barrel at this point because you know, again, how much I can’t stand either. But for those who are living under a rock, Carson Wentz has been dropped for rookie Jalen Hurts in their must-win matchup with New Orleans IF the Eagles think they can still make a run at the playoffs which seems like it’s slipping further and further away at this point – it’s not impossible that they can’t make it in just improbable. But before being benched, Wentz was the QB11 for fantasy and if he is someone you had invested in and helped you to the fantasy playoffs then you must be absolutely steaming about this. Not to mention that if you had picked up Hurts because of this benching, the Saints are ‘allowing’ the third-fewest points to quarterbacks per week (15.1 ppg), the least amount of points to running backs per week (11.8 ppg), and a combined total of 30.7 points per week to wide receivers and tight ends. Put bluntly, I don’t believe any of your Eagles are startable in week one of the fantasy playoffs. If you are someone that needs things to be spelled out for them: fade ‘Philly’.
Comeback Route
A Football Team lead by A Quarterback:
Is doing pretty well considering Alex Smith‘s career was written off about two years ago from a horrific injury, and here we are looking at Washington with Smith under center on the precipice of a playoff birth. There aren’t enough ways to talk about the intestinal fortitude this man has let alone the mental strength to get through it all as well. Put simply, Alex Smith is a g-d inspiration to the most hardcore of ‘WFT’ fans to the most casual of NFL viewers.
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But nows the time to stop with the adulations of just ‘being there’, because he’s had two games with over 3oo-passing yards, and was four yards shy this week to hit that marker again this week against Pittsburgh. Look, for fantasy he is not setting the world on fire and I’m not going to try and convince you otherwise but in the fantasy playoffs, anything can happen. So keep in mind that the ‘Football Team’ has Seattle (giving up the second most ppg to quarterbacks) in Week 15 and Carolina in Week 16 (giving up the 14th most ppg to quarterbacks) just in case you find yourself needing a new play-caller.
Screen Route
I mean… who else is left?:
I can’t imagine endorsing a running back for a team that hasn’t won a game, coming up against a team that is one of the highest-scoring in the NFL, but it’s 2020 and here we are. I can’t imagine that Ty Johnson of the New York Jets is someone that people in your league were clamoring for off waivers this week, but in a three-game series of fantasy playoffs, it’s always the guy from out of nowhere that puts up points that wins people championships. In 2019 it was Boston Scott. In 2018 it was Damien Williams and Elijah McGuire. In 2017 it was C.J. Anderson and so on, and so on. Every year without fail it happens.
Last week, with Frank Gore taking a hit to the noggin’, and Johnson ended up the RB7 for the week scoring 19.7 points against the Raiders and now meets the Seahawks who just had Wayne Gallman drop over 100 rushing yards on them while Alfred Morris punched in two touchdowns. Ladies and gentlemen, this is where the ‘guy from nowhere that won me a championship’ story begins. Ty Johnson is currently rostered in 17% of Sleeper leagues and I would think he has similar roster numbers across other platforms – if he is available in your league you must pick him up now.
Out Route
That’s impressive:
As Darren Waller had himself a week against the terrible New York Jets. Waller went off (17-13-200-2, no, I’m not joking) for 45 points. That’s ridiculous. But it was also against the Jets. This week Waller is insanely priced up at $6800 coming up against one of the toughest matchups for tight ends in the Indianapolis Colts (OPRK 1st vs tight ends) who allow a measly 8.6 ppg to the position. Yeah, I get it, Waller’s a machine and a mismatch nightmare but not at that price or against that team. I’m paying down for Dalton Schultz ($3500 vs Cincinnati) or Jordan Reed ($3500 vs Washington) instead who has better matchups and a price that’s more appealing to allow you to spend up on better matchups on other positions.
The 9 Route
Right up the guts:
We just saw Baltimore put up about 300 rushing yards on Dallas this week. They’ve given up the second-most rushing yards, the fourth most rushing touchdowns with an average of 22.0 ppg to the position, the Cowboys, put bluntly, look like they couldn’t care less and have half a leg in Cabo already. This week they play the Bengals, a team with one less win and also, like Dallas onto their third-string quarterback actually play with pride and passion and have at least been competitive in the games they have lost.
Enter Giovani Bernard ($5000) who is going to get a fair bit of work this week with Joe Mixon ruled out yet again. He’s had a few quiet weeks since his mid-season burst, but I like him to have a big week. I also like the Bengals (props taken Thursday evening) with the +3.5 headstart in a game that will likely go over the currently set 42.5 points total.
Hail Mary
Hook ’em:
Collin Johnson has stood up as the receiver to have in Jacksonville right now as he holds a team-high 18% target share with Mike Glennon under center. And while I’m not sure how that sounds appealing, Mike Glennon has led the Jaguars to nearly 50 total points in that time span. Jacksonville this week is at home to Tennesee, who have allowed in an average of 31 points in their last month, and two receiving touchdowns per game on average in that four-week sample as well.
This week and I started this article off with a stack that seemed pricey that included Aaron Rodgers alongside Devante Adams or Allen Lazard. So I’m going to finish the article with a cheaper stack with Mike Glennon ($5100 vs OPRK 28th to quarterbacks) and Collin Johnson ($3600 vs OPRK of 27th to wide receivers). This should give you cheap upside at quarterback and in the flex while allowing you the extra cash to spend up elsewhere.
I want to thank you for checking this article out! As always you can follow me at @TheBLeagueSays and feel free to check out my @BackRowGiants podcast out (https://linktr.ee/TheBLeagueSays) – subscribe, rate, review, share, and listen.
Let’s all get better together!
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