In this week’s ‘Game Plan’ I’m reflecting upon the halfway mark of the season based on my offseason work, but remember, all projections were made after the 2020 NFL Draft and leading up until the week before the season started so you’re going to see some shocking predictions in here but many have panned out as well. I’ll also give you plays to make in regards to your weekly roster construction, DFS selections, and Dynasty evaluations.
Enjoy!
Slant Route
Where I was right: Sell Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Le’Veon Bell to bounce-back, Allen Robinson makes all quarterbacks look good.
Where I was wrong: Draft Kyle Rudolph, Dwayne Haskins taking the reigns.
The silver lining: To be fair I lucked into Bell landing in Kansas after he and the Jets came to a mutual termination of his contract because I think the way it looks now his best looks like is yet to come. But I still stand up for the premise that selling Edwards-Helaire before the season started was the way to go. He now has Bell alongside him and that will stifle a lot of scoring potential for this year at least. This week they are both viable in a positive matchup against the Panthers with Edwards-Helaire ($6100) and Bell ($5100) are priced respectively.
Kyle Rudolph was nothing more than a long shot, and Allen Robinson making quarterbacks look better than what they are was an easy call. But thinking Haskins would have a massive year? Yikes. The guy is now third on the Washington depth chart and his career in D.C. looks to be over.
Flat Route
Where I was right: Ronald Jones‘ role, Nick Chubb / Kareem Hunt splits, the buy-low window on Corey Davis. Damien Williams‘ role in jeopardy.
Where I was wrong: Ian Thomas‘ impending breakout.
The silver lining: If you have Ronald Jones there is a chance that you still don’t know what to do with him as I said before, and Nick Chubb getting hurt has elevated Kareem Hunt like we thought it could but they both seemed to be in an even enough split before he missed time. Damien Williams opted out for 2020 due to COVID-19 and now sees not only Edwards-Helaire again when he returns in 2021, but now possibly Le’Veon Bell too. I’m not the biggest Ian Thomas truther, but when he played with Cam Newton while Greg Olsen was injured I thought the building blocks to a big 2020 would be there but he was barely featured.
However, I’m pretty happy with the idea of buying low on Corey Davis before the season starts coming to fruition. Both Davis and teammate A.J. Brown have had a solid 2020 campaign (despite injuries and the bye round hitting already) but Davis was coming into the season pretty much undrafted, and now leads the Titans in targets and receptions. Davis is currently the WR34 which doesn’t sound amazing, but he’s also the WR16 on a PPG basis. He’s still a ‘buy’ right now in my opinion.
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Comeback Route
Where I was right: Preston Williams slow burn, Tom Brady is having a year, Drew Lock getting some fun toys to play with.
Where I was wrong: David Njoku to star, N’Keal Harry to take over.
The silver lining: David Njoku is buried in Cleveland and let’s hope he lands somewhere decent in 2021, and N’Keal Harry just hasn’t worked in New England despite getting opportunities to do so. Drew Lock‘s season stalled with a shoulder injury but if his season takes off like his Week 8 performance against the Chargers then it’s wheels up, and while Preston Williams has flashed at times I am interested to see how his relationship with Tua Tagovailoa looks moving forward.
But it’s Tom Brady who has had the best comeback of those I wrote about that has been impressive and it’s about to get better. Now at the time of writing Leonard Fournette wasn’t a Buccaneer, and neither was Rob Gronkowski which are huge additions to that offense. Now he gets Antonio Brown from out of purgatory as well? This is huge for those who took Brady in their draft this year, but also huge for the Buccaneers who sit atop of the NFC South. Tampa Bay is now the odds on favorite to win the NFC Championship, currently paying $3.75, and $7.00 to win the Superbowl right now. Brady is currently the third favorite to win the NFL MVP at $9.00 which to me is a bit too short, but if the Buccaneers go on a title run it could very well happen.
Screen Route
Where I was right: Sammy Watkins is of value, Jack Doyle being of service.
Where I was wrong: Darren Waller‘s lowered ceiling, Duke Johnson to stand out, Devin Asiasi playing a role.
The silver lining: Shock that Sammy Watkins is hurt, again, but his role looked cemented at the start of the season and really nullified any ‘Mecole Hardman‘s taking over’ conversation for another year at least. Jack Doyle looks fine, he’s still a solid best-ball option and is normally cheap enough in DFS to be a play most weeks as well. Duke Johnson, has really done nothing worthy of note, and Devin Asiasi… I don’t think I’ve heard his name spoken this year at all.
But Darren Waller slowing down due to Jason Witten and Fabian Moreau eating into his work was a hell of a flop. In theory, Moreau and Witten are effective in the red-zone and that was my hesitation with him, thinking that his role would no longer expand and to an extent I was right he’s only had the three touchdowns this year, equalling his 2019 tally, but I’ll safely assume he’s going to add more by the end of the year. Waller has nearly twice as many targets as the next receiver on the Raiders roster and his 14.00 PPG sees him as the current TE2 and could very well stay in that spot as George Kittle is out likely for the rest of the season and with Mark Andrews has been bombing this year. If you have Waller, there is a chance that this year is his peak, so put the feelers out there if you think you have the roster to be able to survive by moving him on.
Out Route
Where I was right: Sell Kenyan Drake, Nick Foles is the cheaper alternative, John Ross love.
Where I was wrong: Dalvin Cook and Joe Mixon holding out, gauging Adam Thielen.
The silver lining: I was avoiding star running backs Joe Mixon and Dalvin Cook in redraft due to their potential holdouts due to contract negotiations stalling, Cook has been lights out phenomenal hasn’t he, but Mixon has been so-so. Adam Thielen has been one of the best receivers in the league and has been getting absolutely fed by Kirk Cousins this year. Thielen ($6700) has an awesome matchup this week against the Lions who have an OPRK of 23rd for the year. Nick Foles has ultimately taken over, and whether or not that matters is another thing because I’d be surprised if he or Mitchell Trubisky is about next season for the Bears and John Ross is still the forgotten man in Cincinnati.
I was absolutely right on Kenyan Drake though. He has been fine (running the ball at least), but Chase Edmonds has brutally stifled his upside in the receiving game. For those who had invested in him, he’s absolutely not repaid any of the first rounds (still, I have no idea how or why people let that hype get that out of control) draft capital. Drake is out injured and could miss a few weeks, so Edmonds ($6800) is probably going to be, dare I say, an overpriced play this week against the Dolphins who are ok against the run. Personally, I would fade down to David Johnson at $5600 who has a better matchup against Jacksonville.
The Go Route
Where I was right: Buy Antonio Brown.
Where I was wrong: Steven Sims to be a big contributor, DJ Chark continuing from 2019’s form, JuJu Smith-Schuster being ‘the’ guy, Quez Watkins to take over from DeSean Jackson.
The silver lining: I couldn’t have been much more wrong in this department but Antonio Brown has saved me here, and I am probably the only person in the past year who he has helped out. Sims was ok but injuries have plagued his season, while JuJu Smith-Schuster has been in a bit of a rotation with Chase Claypool, Diontae Johnson, and James Washington as Ben Roethlisberger plays the best matchup each week. Quez Watkins has barely been featured in a team that has been starved for wide receivers so I’m not sure that bodes well for his future also.
This brings me to DJ Chark (WR47, 12.2 PPG) who is currently being outproduced by teammate Keelan Cole (WR35, 11.9 PPG). It looks like Mike Glennon or Jake Luton is starting for them this week as Gardner Minshew is out with an injury and for all we know, the Jaguars could be in full tank mode and as someone who has Chark, that would bother you. But for what it’s worth Keelan Cole, Dede Westbrook and Chris Conley will all hit free agency in 2021, and Chark will likely be paired up with a new quarterback. His value right now isn’t at its highest so you have to hold onto him for now but brighter days in the short and long term are coming, you just need a little patience.
Hail Mary
Where I was right: Greg Ward will contribute more.
Where I was wrong: Why not Dante Pettis, Jeremy Sprinkle the top tight end in Washington, Jordan Howard getting a chance, Cole McDonald to make the Titans roster.
The silver lining: Dante Pettis is now a New York Giant – so that says about all you need to know how his season is going. Cole McDonald was cut in camp and is nowhere to be found, and I was half right about a tight end in Washington taking off – but it was Logan Thomas and not Jeremy Sprinkle. Jordan Howard lost his job to Myles Gaskin and the way Gaskin is playing we shouldn’t be at all surprised.
So that leaves me with the one thing I did half right this year and that is back Greg Ward to be the Eagles’ best wide receiver this year. Now that may change in nine weeks with Travis Fulgham joining the team and going berserk, and with Jalen Reagor finally getting healthy too. But for eight weeks Ward has been solid. In August at the FFPC, Ward had a draft ADP of 350th overall, where he had deep value as the WR147. To drive my point home, Andrew Luck was being drafted ahead of the current WR44. This year. I’ll say it one more time: Andrew Luck was being drafted ahead of him this year. He’s going to give you a solid floor of 9.5 PPG, and while his teammates can’t stay healthy, he’s sure to score more. He currently leads the team for targets which is something, and with the Eagles soft schedule coming up could be a solid buy-low during the bye rounds as a flex play each week.
I want to thank you for checking this article out! As always you can follow me at @TheBLeagueSays and feel free to check out my @BackRowGiants podcast out (https://linktr.ee/TheBLeagueSays) – subscribe, rate, review, share, and listen.
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