One year after being just four yards shy of a 1,000-yard rookie rushing season, Nick Chubb finished 2019 just six yards shy of 1,500 rushing yards. He did this on 298 carries and added 8 touchdowns on the ground with 36 receptions for another 300+ yds. A second-year running back behind Cleveland’s porous offensive line, in a problematic offense with a head coach no longer there was able to achieve: what’s not to like?
Unfortunately, the hesitation with Chubb has nothing to do with his talent or performance, rather the fact that on the roster lies another running back who led the league rushing as a rookie in Kansas City. The polarizing figure we are referring to is, of course, Kareem Hunt. He was a star with Alex Smith and Pat Mahomes under center before an off-field incident ended his tenure as a Chief. It’s a shame to think Hunt could have been seeing empty boxes with Mahomes and co. as major passing threats and Andy “Big Red” Reid scheming for him. Alas, life goes on. Now the stud running back is a very valued backfield partner in Cleveland. Not only is this evidenced by his immersion into the game plan last year when his suspension was served, but also by the Browns’ front office move to place a second-round tender on him. This was done after Kevin Stefanski was a newly hired head coach.
As someone who picked up Hunt late last year with Chubb a keeper from the year prior, I thought not only did I have the most talented hand-cuff in the league, but a potential keeper this year if Hunt went to an RB needy team. I had my hopes pinned on the Texans but Lord knows that front office is not one to be relied upon when it comes to off-season moves (see: DeAndre Hopkins trade). So with Chubb and Hunt both on my roster, what value does Chubb hold. Is he still a top keeper? Will Hunt vulture him completely?
The answer, as usual with anything in life, is it depends. Let’s take a look at the whole offense first. Baker Mayfield at QB had a down year after a record-setting rookie year. Odell Beckham Jr. and Jarvis Landry cannot be please with their output from a year ago, and now another mouth to feed is newly signed Austin Hooper. Can all these fantasy stars get the volume we players depend on? Probably not. But let’s try to compare a bit to what Stefanski did in Minnesota with Kirk Cousins and two elite receivers in Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs: they were definitely fantasy relevant. Kyle Rudolph was not much of a performer, but he never has been a fantasy stud. He plays TE anyways which is a wash of a position. An interesting observation is Stefanski’s use of Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison. The former had a breakout year in his first majorly healthy season, while the latter was one of the hottest hand-cuff pickups down the stretch as we all awaited Cook’s inevitable injury (that never came). One thing to note is Mattison ran well; he was not just the backup. With that said, I doubt he is as talented as Kareem Hunt. Stefanski’s previous roster talent seems to suggest he can balance out the touches in an offense with many stars, but let’s take a look at some other data first.
Let’s take a look at the snap count numbers and snap percentage for Chubb and Hunt.
We can see that Chubb’s snap count down oscillate up and down at the beginning of the year before Hunt takes the field. However, we do see a clear downward trend when Hunt comes back. Hmm, but maybe Chubb’s decrease in snap count did not affect his production. Maybe he had more rest and more productivity. Let’s take a look at his carries and rush yards.
We can see that Chubb’s attempts do fall off at the end of the season. Instead of hovering around 20 carries, he hovers around 15-17. Interestingly, his yardage does not seem to take much of a hit. While that is encouraging that he was able to still perform well with fewer touches, this is fantasy football. And we need our running backs to get volume. I wanted to take a look at two more plots. One of receiving yards, and arguably the most important at all, fantasy points.
We see that the receiving yards plot shows a very interesting trend. When one of the RBs had more receiving yards, the other had the inverse effect. It seems Chubb’s main sacrifice effect was for Hunt to become the receiving back. In fact, Hunt was scoring very well in PPR leagues at the end of the year. The right side plot shows Chubb’s fantasy production dropping off as Hunt becomes more involved in the offense. His worst two games of the year are with Hunt in the lineup. However, Hunt also performed poorly in those games, so we don’t necessarily think Chubb was vultured in those games.
So what is our verdict after all of this? I still like Nick Chubb a lot. I think his talent is impossible to ignore. In today’s NFL, to have an RB get nearly 1500 yards on the ground is enviable. It is something only a guy like Derrick Henry can do! With that said, in fantasy football talent is not all it takes. We need volume, and with Hunt arguably one of the more talented backs in the league, it will be hard to keep him off the field as well. The best-case scenario for a Chubb owner is somehow still an RB needy team trading for Hunt. After that, we can hope Stefanski gives 18-22 carries to Chubb per game, with Hunt getting 12 total touches between receptions and rush attempts. If Chubb can still get goal-line carries, it would be a boon. If Hunt starts serving as a goal-line back, I’m not sure Chubb’s rush yards only could carry him as an RB1. I like Chubb as a Joe Mixon or Aaron Jones level player. A player that will be teetering between RB1/2 levels and constantly teasing us with lack of consistency! Just kidding. I do think Chubb will be a consistent part of the game plan and is a top 8-10 RB. I think he is a late first or high second-round pick. I’d take certain receivers ahead of him, but only true studs.
What are your thoughts on Chubb and Hunt?
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