I asked the team at GoingFor2 to give their most Overrated wide receiver in fantasy for 2021, and man did they go hard in the paint on this one. I had to double-check I worded the question correctly when I saw some of the names on this list. But, don’t worry, I attached their names and Twitter handle, so feel free to reach out to them and ask them WTF?? Enjoy…
Embed from Getty ImagesTyler Lockett (SEA)
Brian Craighead @vandygrad92
Tyler Lockett has finished the last two seasons in the top 15 for PPR WR rankings, finishing 15th in 2019 and 8th in 2020. Although it would be impossible to classify those results as disappointing, one has to take a much deeper dive into Lockett to identify his complete lack of consistency. Over the last two seasons, Lockett has combined for 182 catches(242 targets), and has amassed 2,111 yards and 18 touchdowns. Much of this production(68 catches on 91 targets for 816 yards and 12 TD’s) has occurred over six games, three each in 2019 and 2020.
Over the remaining 26 games, he has accumulated 114 catches(4.4 catches/game) for 1295 yards(49.8 yards/game) and 8 TD’s(.31 TD/game). These totals equate to 9.69 fantasy points/game. To break down the previous information even further, Lockett has had 14 games over the last two years with 11 or fewer fantasy points and has also had a declining yards/reception for each of the last three seasons(16.9 to 12.9 to 10.5).
With additions to the receiving corps(TE Gerald Everett in free agency and WR D’Wayne Eskridge in the second round of the NFL draft), Lockett could likely see a reduction in targets. Combined with the Seahawks’ balanced attack(tied for 13th fewest passes/game), Lockett will continue to disappoint fantasy owners in any given week and not provide the WR2 output that his ADP suggests.
DK Metcalf (SEA)
Charlie Friar @CharlieFriar
There’s no doubt DK Metcalf can be a dominant force. However, that domination only existed for half the season in 2020. DK ranked WR3 from weeks 1-9 last season with four 100+ yard games and eight touchdowns. Then in weeks 10-16, DK was MIA. He ranked WR17 with just one 100+ yard game and two touchdowns. In addition to DK’s 2020 finish, Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll has been adamant about running the football in 2021. He even fired the offensive coordinator who ‘let Russ cook.’ Combine his 2020 finish with Pete Carroll’s intense offseason narrative about the ground game, proceed with caution on DK’s current WR7 ranking on Fantasy Pros.
Michael Thomas (NO)
Devin Deal @DevinDeal
According to FantasyPros Expert Consensus Rankings, Michael Thomas is WR9 overall. Michael Thomas has been an elite receiver over the years, but he is coming off a season where he missed a lot of time due to injury and now has Jaemis Winston, Taysom Hill, or a combo of the two will be throwing him the ball. Gone are the days of elite accurate passes coming his way from Drew Brees in a very pass-heavy offense.
I see the Saints running the ball more than they ever have compared to when Brees was under center which will hurt his stock a bit. This is not to say Thomas will not be a solid asset in 2021, but Thomas does have some hurdles in his way to end up finishing as a top 10 wide receiver. I see Thomas as more of a WR2 with upside depending on his quarterback play and how he rebounds from an injured ankle.
High ankle sprains have been notorious for hanging around and being difficult to rebound 100% from. I would personally rather draft Terry McLaurin or Keenan Allen, both of which are currently ranked behind Thomas. Also factoring in that wide receiver is one of the deepest positions across all fantasy formats, to draft Thomas as the current WR9 is just too rich for me. I personally have more questions about Thomas and his quarterback situation heading into the 2021 season than locked in confidence that he will recapture his dominant form.
Embed from Getty ImagesJustin Jefferson (MIN)
Erik Johnson @FantasyBBQ
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Justin Jefferson is currently the WR6 in FantasyPros Expert Consensus Rankings above players like A.J. Brown, Michael Thomas, and Keenan Allen. This is not a “Jefferson is a bad WR” take. This is a “he is incredibly overvalued” take. Excluding Weeks 1 and 2, he finished inside the top 24 in eight-of-fourteen weeks and conquered the rookie receiving yards record. He played against one good CB in those games.
The other seven games he played against PFF’s 118th, 84th, 94th, 64th, 90th, 74th, and 88th ranked CBs. The defense was a liability in 2020 ranking fourth in points against and sixth in yards against. Minnesota scored the second-most points in the second half in 2020. Translation: they were playing from behind and throwing the ball way more than Mike Zimmer intended. That won’t be the case in 2021 considering the defense will round into form with the return of Danielle Hunter, Anthony Barr, Michael Pierce, and Eric Kendricks.
They added Dalvin Tomlinson and Sheldon Richardson to shore up the sixth-worst run defense in 2020. The philosophy is to slow down the game with Dalvin Cook and play incredible defense. Jefferson will also be the focal point of the passing game for opposing defenses. He is a talented young WR who has many years of fantasy excellence in his future but do not reach for him at WR6. Only disappointment will accompany that pick.
Julio Jones (TEN)
Chris Moshinskie @TheCommishFF
Have you heard that Julio was traded and is now in Tennessee? I think some drafters haven’t realized this yet as his ranking is currently WR15 on Fantasy Pros. I know that sounds low for Julio Jones but it’s not quite low enough. Is he getting older? Sure. Are there injury concerns at this point in his career? Maybe. That isn’t what my issue is here. Julio is leaving the Falcons where he averaged 158 targets over the 3 seasons prior to missing almost half the season is 2020. In fact, in the previous 6 seasons, he failed to reach 148 targets only once.
The point being, in Tennessee, Julio has a limited target ceiling. The Titans threw the ball 485 times in 2020 which is a 3 year high but isn’t near 600 plus attempts by the Falcons each year. So in 2021, Julio will have his target ceiling reduced greatly. Even with a 25% target share, he will see around 125 targets which leads to 75-80 receptions. That is based on his career catch rate of 64.2% with a slight increase from Tannehill’s efficiency.
The last downfall for Julio is that he has never been a huge touchdown producer. Maybe that changes this year but I wouldn’t count on that. AJ Brown will get plenty and Tannehill does like to use the tight ends down close, whoever that may be. Julio is an all-time great receiver and his name is what keeps that ADP above his realistic output. He will be a solid flex option provided he plays most of the season but he’s not a high-end WR2 or possibly low-end WR1 like he’s being drafted. Tread carefully!
Embed from Getty ImagesKenny Golladay (DET)
Miguel Chapeton @ProFootballPSI
Kenny Golladay has a lot of red flags that I try to avoid in wide receivers. First, he switched teams this off-season. Receivers who switch teams more often than not struggle in year one on their new team and while a Golladay is good he’s not DeAndre Hopkins good so he’s not someone I’m willing to bet on to overcome this trend. next, he down grading at Quarterback.
Kenny G had the luxury of playing sweet, sweet music with Matthew Stafford the last few years and now he’s going to New York where he’s arguably going to the worst starting quarterback in the NFL in Daniel Jones. To top it all off he’s going to a team that has one of the most unimaginative offensive coordinators in Jason Garrett who doesn’t inspire any sort of confidence that he can help lift the offense or Daniel Jones.
All of this leads me to believe Golladay is at best a backend top 24 receiver and that’s where he’s currently going in MFL drafts at #25 according to FanatsyPros, but most likely I believe he will finish somewhere around 36 which makes him an unreliable/match-up dependent receiver and too expensive to take at his current ADP.
Brandon Aiyuk (SF)
Jay Christensen @JayC_DFF
Entering 2021 Brandon Aiyuk is ranked as WR26 on Fantasy Pros. That puts him ahead of Tee Higgins, Courtland Sutton, D.J. Chark, and Ja’Marr Chase. Now, I like Brandon Aiyuk. His 2020 season was even better than I had expected. For 2021 however, I am not sure he is even the clear WR1 on the San Francisco 49ers. Aiyuk ranks far above teammate Deebo Samuel in most rankings and goes at least two rounds ahead of him in ADP. Last season, Aiyuk shared the field with Samuel and George Kittle on only four occasions (Week 4 to Week 7). During those weeks, Aiyuk averaged only five targets, three catches, and 47 yards.
Aiyuk excelled last year when both Samuel and Kittle were out of the lineup. With Kittle and Samuel both entering 2021 healthy, how will the targets be divided? Additionally, the 49er’s offense will look a bit different when Trey Lance is given the reins at quarterback. Now add on the 49er’s love of the run. They ranked 14th and 2nd in rush attempts the past two seasons. With the addition of designed run plays for dual-threat Lance, I expect them to be top ten in rush attempts. This could result in fewer targets to go around. Overall, this gives me enough questions on Aiyuk’s fantasy outlook for 2021 to take him at his current ADP.
Mike Evans (TB)
Gary Zamarripa @garyzam01
Mike Evans had 70 receptions for 1006 yards and 13 TDs last season. His Fantasy Pros ADP has him at WR 14 (40th overall). Those are solid numbers that placed him at WR 11 in PPR leagues. So what’s the problem? His game-by-game stats left a lot to be desired. His weekly stats were buoyed by touchdowns. TDs are tough to predict. If his TD totals fall back to where they have been the last 3 seasons (5, 8, 8) then his ADP is way too high. At his surrounding ADP, there are many more players with solid floors as well as ceilings.
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