Hello again to all of you IDP fantasy football fanatics. It is great to have swing by for another week of ‘The Only IDP Sit/Start You Need to Win Week 4’.
As always, the goal of this series will be to take a look at those players we are not quite certain on each week and help identify at each level (DL, LB, DB) an individual you should be starting with confidence and one you should be fading.
The big question mark with IDP though is what scoring format are you using. IDP fantasy football leagues haven’t reached a level of a “standard” scoring that the vast majority of leagues play with. So for our purposes, we will focus on a format known as ‘IDP123’ (example: Tackles 2 points, FF/FR 3 pts, Sacks/Ints 6 pts) With that being said, let’s get into why you came here!
Defensive Line, Start – Sam Hubbard, DL, Cincinnati Bengals
Sam Hubbard is off to the best start of his IDP Fantasy Football career. He is producing across all categories at a pace that will place him securely as a top 12 DL this year. After a slower start in week 1 with a higher total opportunity (snaps played), he has delivered in back-to-back weeks making plays in the backfield and generating pressures. This has resulted in 1 hurry, 2 knockdowns, 1.5 sacks, 2 TFLs, and 14 total tackles.
Production has been there and he is now going into a matchup against the Jaguars where the game script will most likely be a positive one for Cincinnati, which means plenty of pass-rushing chances as the Jaguars spend most of the 2nd half playing from behind. This may be a cheap start option, but take this as a chance to go buy Sam Hubbard from the owner as well before he continues to blow up and make him a DL1 for your team.
Defensive Line, Sit – Chandler Jones, Edge, Arizona Cardinals
Week 1 Chandler Jones blew up for IDP Fantasy Football with an insane performance. Week 2 he followed that up with a goose egg (unless you score QB hits, he had 3). Then week 3 he produced 3 QB hits, 3 solo tackles, 1 TFL, and a fumble recovery (not a sticky big play for IDP). With a boom week, a bust week, and an in-between week, for Jones, what is the outcome we should expect this week?
What to expect is an offensive line in the Rams that is ranked highly across PFF (Tackles have both inside the top 20, Guards have both inside the top 15 and Brian Allen at Center is 3 overall) and has only allowed 3 sacks so far this year. A coach and QB combination that have been hyper-efficient in moving the ball so far this year. These things combined look like a poor outcome for the Cardinals pass-rush this weekend.
Linebacker, Start – De’Vondre Campbell, LB, Green Bay Packers
De’Vondre Campbell’s production and athleticism when on the field have never been questioned. However, his ability to be on the field and stay on the field has been his biggest challenge through his first 5 years. But it looks like he has won over this defense with his 100% snap share the last two weeks and his combined 25 tackles over those games as well. He seems to have a firm grip on the center of that defense in base and sub-packages and has taken full advantage of it.
Campbell’s matchup against a Pittsburgh Steelers offense that targeted Najee Harris 19 times last week due to Diontae Johnson missing the game and Juju going out with a rib injury, this is a perfect opportunity for Campbell to feast. Along those same lines, over 50% of all runs by the Steelers have resulted in initial contact at or behind the line of scrimmage, a great chance for De’Vondre to stack up some nice impact plays too.
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Linebacker, Sit – Devin White, LB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Devin White was the top-scoring IDP Fantasy Football player in most scoring formats last year. However, this year has been a slow start for White as he has not been able to find a way into the big-play or impact plays. He is averaging about 8 combined tackles a game and has 4 QB hits, but across his 20 pass rush attempts, he has not converted 1 sack yet. Last year he was converting 1 sack every 10 pass rush attempts, which is an unrealistic efficiency to keep up over your career. With that said, not getting 1 yet to this point either is a bit concerning as this is what pushed him to the top spot.
White’s success last year game almost exclusively from playing at or behind the line of scrimmage and being very efficient there. He continues to struggle in pass coverage and even more concerning, in run support while he has seen a dramatic drop from 89 to 65 in his pass rush grade from PFF. If White doesn’t find a way to convert more pass rush attempts soon or build up his run support work at or behind the LOS soon, he could quickly fade down the LB1 spot into a mid-range LB2. Depending on roster composition you may be forced to start White based on where you drafted him and what else you have, but looking to sell him on his name and success of last year, maybe your best bet for this season.
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Defensive Back, Start – Reyshawn Jenkins, DB, Jacksonville Jaguars
Rayshawn Jenkins is taking some of the highest amounts of defensive snaps inside the box and getting all of the snaps for the Jaguars starting strong safety. The one problem, the run, and the ball have kept going away from him almost all season. If you want a little visual, check out @PFF_Macri and this piece here. This is just a run of bad luck as far as IDP Fantasy Football is concerned and Reyshawn is a talent you want on your roster and his opportunities will turn into production very soon.
Looking into his matchup versus Cincinnati, this is not the Bengals we saw last year where Zac Taylor wanted to let any QB sling the rock. Now with a Joe Burrow seemingly not 100%, they seem very content to work the offense and the game through Joe Mixon, which for Reyshawn, means those opportunities are right where he needs them to be to start stacking up that coveted IDP Fantasy Football production.
Defensive Back, Sit – Marlon Humphrey, DB, Baltimore Ravens
Marlon Humphrey made the bulk of his IDP Fantasy Football production in two key spots last season. Working out of the slot position and forcing 8 fumbles. Due to the Marcus Peters injury this off-season, he is not seeing nearly the same amount of snaps in the slot and missing out on those opportunities to punch out the ball (ala Charles ‘Peanut’ Tillman).
There is no indication that Humphrey will be switching up this year unless they make a trade or find a free agent to absorb some of those outside alignment snaps. I would continue to fade Humphrey but keep a watchful eye to see how the alignment goes for him and this Ravens defense as that seems to be the only path to continued IDP relevance.
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