There are plenty of times to panic. The first week of the fantasy football season would not be that time. Week one was crazy y’ll. Did you expect Derek Carr to outscore Aaron Rodgers? Or Elijah Mitchell to be the third-best rushing leader after the week? How about Brandin Cooks landing in the top five for receiving leaders?
Is it a trend? Doubtful. Fully expect the poor play of Rodgers to be an aberration. The use of only one running back in the Niners backfield to be a lucky happenstance. And well, as for the Texans, I got nothing.
But that shouldn’t stop us from examining whatever data we have, utilizing our gut/knowledge, and forging ahead. So here we go.
Your week two start-sit-temper your expectations for each game.
(Games are listed from lowest predictor over/under to highest)
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS @ NEW YORK JETS, Patriots 5.5 point favorite, 43 o/u
START: TIGHT END, HUNTER HENRY, PATRIOTS
There is an ongoing debate about which tight end will be the fantasy darling in New England. Last week the Patriots ran 12-man personnel in 31 of their 71 offensive plays. Jonnu Smith was on the field for 55 of the 75 offensive snaps, while Henry had 54 of the 75 offensive snaps.
Smith finished with five targets, five receptions for 42 yards. Henry had three targets for three receptions and 31 yards.
If you are tight-end bereft, either could slide into your lineup as both were on the field for more than 70% of the Patriots’ offensive output. I just feel it’s Henry’s time.
SIT: QUARTERBACK, ZACH WILSON, JETS
The Jets’ offensive line is porous. It doesn’t appear it will get better with the loss of Mehki Becton. Without an effective run game, it will be left to Wilson, who was sacked six times last week. He also threw an interception.
Love our content? Check out the GoingFor2 Live Podcast Network!
Bill Belichick’s defense is notoriously brutal on rookie quarterbacks. This should be no different.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS @ CAROLINA PANTHERS, Saints 3.5 favorite, 44 o/u
START: QUARTERBACK, JAMEIS WINSTON, SAINTS
Today this seems like a no-brainer…but it is Winston. Coming off a shellacking of the Green Bay Packers were Winston tossed in five touchdowns to four different receivers on 148 passing yards, yeah, weird. But what is giving us the most cause for hope is that there were zero interceptions…ZERO.
Now he will meet up with a Panthers’ defense that allowed rookie quarterback Wilson to throw two touchdowns and 258 passing yards.
SIT: QUARTERBACK, SAM DARNOLD, PANTHERS
The Saints’ defense just held last year’s Offensive MVP to 15-of-28, for 133 yards, zero touchdowns, and two interceptions. They made Aaron Rodgers look inept. Imagine what they will do with Darnold.
CINCINNATI BENGALS @ CHICAGO BEARS, Bears 3 favorite, 45 o/u
START: WIDE RECEIVER, TYLER BOYD, BENGALS
Boyd was on the field for 51-out-of-69 offensive snaps (74%). He had four targets, three receptions, and 32 receiving yards. What matters here is that out of a 74.6% snap share, 33 were slot snaps.
Now Chicago employed Marqui Christian as the slot corner in week one. He allowed five catches on six targets for 85 yards and two touchdowns. That seems like something quarterback Joe Burrow and Boyd can exploit.
SIT: QUARTERBACK, ANDY DALTON, BEARS
First, will Dalton play the who game? Who knows? Second in his week one debut, he didn’t have a pass attempt beyond 16 yards. And perhaps most important is the Bengals’ defensive end Trey Hendrickson amassed seven quarterback pressures.
With the immobility of Dalton, it isn’t a reach to see the Bengals going after him and getting to him often.
DENVER BRONCOS @ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS, Broncos 6 favorite, 45.5 o/u
START: TIGHT END, NOAH FANT, BRONCOS
With the injury to Jerry Jeudy, there is a new pecking order in Denver. Luckily, quarterback Teddy Bridgewater gave us a little glimmer in week one.
Fant led the team in targets with eight. He also tied for receptions (with Jeudy) with six and was second in yards with 62.
The Jacksonville Jaguars just surrendered 281 passing yards to the Houston Texans. Tight end Pharaoh Brown contributed with 67 yards on four targets. Just betting Fant will outdo that production.
SIT: QUARTERBACK, TREVOR LAWRENCE, JACKSONVILLE
Not really sure what is happening in Jacksonville. Carlos Hyde only rushed nine times and James Robinson five times in a game that should have been a smash for the running backs.
That left quarterback Lawrence to attempt 51 passes. It is a safe bet that if he is asked to pass that much this week, Von Miller, Bradley Chubb, and the rest of the defensive line will make him regret it.
LAS VEGAS RAIDERS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS, Steelers 5.5 favorite, 47 o/u
START: RUNNING BACK, NAJEE HARRIS, STEELERS
Okay, yes, in week one, Harris averaged a measly 2.8 yards per carry. He had 16 carries and three targets. But Harris was on the field for 100% of the offensive snaps.
The offensive line is still a worry, and quarterback Ben Roethlisberger not having a pass over 20 air yards; if Harris isn’t utilized in the run, he will get his time in the passing game.
He was on the field for 100% of the offensive snaps!
SIT: RUNNING BACK, JOSH JACOBS, RAIDERS
There is not only the concern that Jacobs is still injured, but the Ravens held him to 34 rushing yards on 10 carries. He did have two rushing touchdowns, but his usage, injury, and the Steelers’ front seven should be enough of a concern.
LOS ANGELES RAMS @ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS, Rams 4 favorite, 47.5 o/u
START: TIGHT END, TYLER HIGBEE, RAMS
The Colts’ secondary is a work in progress. Last week quarterback Russell Wilson diced them up for four passing touchdowns. The tight ends combined for five receptions, 57 yards, and one passing touchdown.
For his part, Higbee was on the field for 52 of the 52 offensive snaps in week one. He finished the game with six targets, five receptions, and 58 yards.
Being on the field for 100% of the offensive snaps helps (see above) but having quarterback Matthew Stafford go against a shaky secondary is better.
SIT: QUARTERBACK, CARSON WENTZ, COLTS
Wentz and head coach Frank Reich may eventually rekindle their Super Bowl magic. But it isn’t going to be against Aaron Donald and the Rams’ defense.
Last week Wentz was sacked three times against a revamped Seattle Seahawks defense. Doubling that doesn’t seem so impossible against the Rams.
BUFFALO BILLS @ MIAMI DOLPHINS, Bills 3.5 favorite, 48 o/u
START: WIDE RECEIVER, COLE BEASLEY, BILLS
Last week the Pittsburgh Steelers defense blitzed 3.7% (two of 54 dropbacks). They made quarterback Josh Allen uncomfortable, which resulted in 13 targets to slot man Beasley. Beasley, his comfort blanket, finished the game with eight receptions for 60 yards.
Last week the Dolphins’ defense blitzed on a 46.1% rate for the game. That’s a lot more pressure which should result in Beasley once again seeing double-digit targets.
SIT: TIGHT END, MIKE GESICKI, DOLPHINS
I’m not sure who needs to hear this but not only did Gesicki not show up in the stat line, but he was on the field for only 21 offensive snaps.
Look for the better blocking tight end, Durham Smythe, to dominate time again on the field (38 offensive snaps). (This is not an endorsement for you to play Smythe)
HOUSTON TEXANS @ CLEVELAND BROWNS, Browns 12.5 favorite, 48 o/u
START: RUNNING BACK, KAREEM HUNT, CLEVELAND
Against the Kansas City Chiefs, the running back duo in Cleveland saw almost equal opportunities. Hunt was on the field for 28 snaps, while Nick Chubb had 31 snaps.
In a game that is predicted to be a blow-out, both should get their fair share to make an impact.
SIT: RUNNING BACK, MARK INGRAM, TEXANS
Ingram made you proud in week one with 26 carries, 85 yards, and one touchdown on 36 offensive snaps (out of 78). This game will not offer the same opportunities.
In addition to being in a negative game script this week, remember the Browns’ defense held Clyde Edwards-Helaire to 43 yards on 14 carries.
DETROIT LIONS @ GREEN BAY PACKERS, Packers 10.5 favorite, 48.5 o/u
START: QUARTERBACK, AARON RODGERS, PACKERS
Monday Night Football game with a shot at redemption. After completing 53.6% of his passes and tossing in two interceptions, who amongst us does not believe Rodgers will absolutely destroy the Lions?
SIT: RUNNING BACK, AARON JONES, PACKERS
This should be a game where the Packers’ running backs run amok. However, last week in their defeat Jones averaged 1.8 yards per carry.
AJ Dillion averaged 4.8 yards per carry on one less carry and 12 fewer offensive snaps (Jones had 28 and Dillion had 16 offensive snaps). Both had two targets.
It was Dillion, not Jones, who was the most productive back in a non-productive outing.
SAN FRANCISCO NINERS @ PHILADELPHIA EAGLES, Niners 3.5 favorite, 50 o/u
START: QUARTERBACK, JALEN HURTS, PHILADELPHIA
While acknowledging the Niners’ defense is formidable, Hurts appears to excel against the blitz. Last season he had four touchdowns and one interception when teams blitzed him. Last week he finished 9-of-11 for 108 yards and two touchdowns when the Falcons attempted to blitz.
SIT: WIDE RECEIVER, BRANDON AIYUK, NINERS
Is he injured? Is he being outplayed? Only Kyle Shanahan knows, and he isn’t sharing. We know that wide receiver Trent Sherfield was on the field for 49% of the offensive snaps in week one, including a touchdown. And Deebo Samuel was targeted a team-high 12 times for nine receptions, 189 yards, and a touchdown.
MINNESOTA VIKINGS @ ARIZONA CARDINALS, Cardinals 4.5 favorite, 51 o/u
START: WIDE RECEIVER, CHRISTIAN KIRK, CARDINALS
Week one, Kirk was the third most targeted wide receiver ( DeAndre Hopkins had eight targets, AJ green had six, Kirk and Rondale Moore tied for five), yet he had the second-most receiving yards (70) tied Hopkins with two receiving touchdowns.
Not quite sure what is going on in the Vikings’ secondary, but pretty sure Kyler Murray, Hopkins, and Kirk can exploit it.
SIT: QUARTERBACK, KIRK COUSINS, VIKINGS
The Bengals’ managed to sack Cousins three times last week. Chandler Jones managed to sack Ryan Tannehill five times last week. The Cardinals registered six sacks. Math.
ATLANTA FALCONS @ TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS, Buccaneers 12.5 favorite, 52 o/u
START: QUARTERBACK, MATT RYAN, ATLANTA
I know he looked pretty bad last week, completing only 21-of-35 passes for 164 yards and zero touchdowns. But this is a great defense against the run that allowed Dak Prescott to torch them for 403 passing yards and three touchdowns.
Look for Ryan and receiving corps to put up some yards with a couple of passing touchdowns.
SIT: RUNNING BACK, MIKE DAVIS, ATLANTA
There won’t be any time to try out the rushing game, and why would you against the number one rushing defense?
TENNESSEE TITANS @ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS, Seahawks 5.5 favorite, 53.5 o/u
START: TIGHT END, GERALD EVERETT, SEAHAWKS
It is sometimes hard to remember when quarterback Russell Wilson is cooking. He is utilizing all the ingredients. In week one, such was the case. Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf were targeted five times. Tight end Will Dissly and running back Chris Carson were each targeted three times, and Everett was targeted twice.
Everett was on the field for 72% of the offensive snaps and Dissly 70% (actually a difference of only one snap 39 to 38), but hey, it matters.
Everett finished with 20 yards and one touchdown. Look for him to find the end zone once again against a flailing Tennessee secondary.
SIT: TIGHT END, ANTHONY FIRKSER, TITANS
Did you know that Chester Rogers was the leading receiver for the Titans’ week one? Rogers was targeted six times (second-most on the team) for four receptions and 62 yards.
I only mention this because that moves Firkser a bit further down. In fact week one, he and running back Derrick Henry had identical receiving stats, three receptions for 19 yards. Just one more person to be stuck behind.
DALLAS COWBOYS @ LOS ANGELES CHARGERS, Chargers 3 favorite, 55.5 o/u
START: WIDE RECEIVER, MIKE WILLIAMS, CHARGERS
Williams was on the field for 61 out of 81 offensive snaps. He finished the game with eight receptions on 12 targets for 82 yards and a touchdown. Keenan Allen will be the number one receiver, but as the Cowboys’ defense allowed two 100 yard receivers in week one, there is room for two again.
SIT: TIGHT END, BLAKE JARWIN, COWBOYS
Even with Michael Gallup out with an injury, there are still many mouths to feed in Dallas. This game is tied for the highest over/under, but Dalton Schultz is currently the tight end of choice.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS @ BALTIMORE RAVENS, Chiefs 3.5 favorite, 55.5 o/u
START: RUNNING BACK, TY’SON WILLIAMS, RAVENS
This is still a run-first team. Quarterback Lamar Jackson leads the rush. But coming in a close second in Williams. In the MNF thriller, Williams had nine rushes for 65 yards and a touchdown. He was also targeted four times for three receptions.
The Chiefs allowed Chubb and Hunt 116 rushing yards and five receptions.
SIT: RUNNING BACK, CLYDE EDWARDS-HELAIRE, CHIEFS
Until Edwards-Helaire becomes non-endzone adverse against teams solid against the run, he is a sit.
CONCLUSION
It is week 2 of the NFL 2021 season. You have questions we have answers at GOINGFOR2.com.
If you have questions about injuries look no further than @TFSDoc also known as James Ferretti, DO. Also known as the author of “Injuries Suck, But Your Fantasy Team Doesn’t Have To”. Seriously, he’s a doctor.
We are here to make your fantasy team not suck at all. Good luck and come and talk at me on Twitter @gladysLtyler
ATTN Dynasty Commissioners: Do you want to do something cool for your league? How about a 1-hour live show dedicated to YOUR league? Team-by-team breakdowns, rankings, and more. For details and to book a show, visit: GoingFor2.com/plp.
