NFL 2021: Week 5 Start n Sits and Play with Caution
It is another week of football and the trends are starting to make a little sense. But who saw the Arizona destruction of California? Or did you call the Jets win over the Titans?
Either way, it is off to get our Week 5 fantasy lineups in the winning mode.
As always, the games are listed here from the highest predicted over/under to the lowest. And don’t forget about the London early game this week!
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BUFFALO BILLS @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS, 56o/u, Chiefs -2.5
START: EMMANUEL SANDERS, WIDE RECEIVER, BILLS
The Chiefs have given up the 10th most fantasy points to the wide receiver position. The Chiefs cornerbacks have given up the fifth-highest catch rate (70%) and the sixth-highest yards per catch (9.9) even though they have faced the sixth-fewest wide receiver targets. (Stats Mike Clay espn.com)
Sanders is on the field for 81.3% snap share while seeing a 17.2% target share. Sanders isn’t the red zone option on the Bills ( Stefon Diggs has 11 red-zone targets, Dawson Knox and Cole Beasley have seven, while Sanders has four. )
But only Knox is ahead of him in receiving touchdowns ( four to two).
PLAY WITH CAUTION: TRAVIS KELCE, TIGHT END, CHIEFS
The Bills have given up the fifth-lowest fantasy points to the tight end position (5.75). The caveat is the tight ends they have faced include Pat Freiermuth, Eric Ebron, Mike Gesicki, Logan Thomas, and Jordan Akins.
The only one with Kelce’s “like” status is Thomas, and he had four targets, four receptions, 42 yards, and one touchdown.
You are never ever going to sit, Kelce. Just temper your expectations.
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PSA: The Bills give up the least fantasy points to the quarterback position (10.42) and wide receiver position (16.30).
PROP BET: Josh Allen under 306.5 passing yards @ Kanas City (-115)
NEW YORK GIANTS @ DALLAS COWBOYS, 51.5 o/u, Dallas -7
START: DANIEL JONES, QUARTERBACK, GIANTS
QB6, 8.2 yards per attempt, 36 average pass plays per game, and 15 red zone attempts. This is Daniel Jones through four weeks in the NFL.
Now he has a divisional game against the Cowboys, who are giving up the fourth-most fantasy points to the quarterback position (21.98). And the Cowboys have given up the second-most passing yards per game (315.2) while allowing 2.2 passing touchdowns per game.
SIT: AMARI COOPER, WIDE RECEIVER, COWBOYS
It isn’t just the Cowboys are winning with a run-first philosophy. The Cowboys currently rank 28th in passing play percentage (53.03%), averaging 33.2 passing attempts per game.
Cooper, for his part, is a respectable WR16 in fantasy. He is getting a 21.4% target share and on the field for 82.3% snap share. This is the concern, Cooper’s hamstring injury. All indications are that he will play Sunday even after sitting out of practice Wednesday. But how much will he play? With the emergence of tight end Dalton Schultz (team-leading eight targets Week 4) and the ability to run either/both Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard at will, will they risk over-playing an injury-prone Cooper?
SAN FRANCISCO NINERS @ ARIZONA CARDINALS, 50 o/u, Cardinals -6
START: JAMES CONNER, RUNNING BACK, CARDINALS
The Niners are allowing the tenth-most fantasy points to the running back position (23.28). But the better news is that Conner has 14 red zone rushing attempts for 36 yards and four touchdowns.
Conner is only on the field for 42.2% of the offensive snaps, yet he has 14 red-zone attempts, four goal-line carries, and leads the team in rushing touchdowns (Kyler Murray is second with three).
PLAY WITH CAUTION: GEORGE KITTLE, TIGHT END, NINERS
This is another. If he is healthy, you are probably going to play him. But just keep in mind that the Cardinals are giving up the third least amount of fantasy points to the tight end position (3.95). This includes not allowing a tight-end touchdown through four weeks.
Kittle, like Kelce, is a different animal, tight end royalty, if you will. But an injured Kittle against a stout defense is asking a lot.
PROP BET: James Conner Over 66.5 Rushing Yards -102
CLEVELAND BROWNS @ LOS ANGELES CHARGERS, 49.5 o/u, PK
START: MIKE WILLIAMS, WIDE RECEIVER, CHARGERS
The Browns have given up one touchdown and at least 78 yards to three of the four “X receivers” they have faced.
Williams, who was moved from the slot to the X position this season, is on the field for 78.4% of the offensive snaps and has a 22.4% snap share. With a target rate of 25.4%, he has five deep targets and eight red-zone targets.
He trails Allen by 11 targets but has outscored him four-to-one. Last week was the first week Williams did not score at least one touchdown in a game.
Except for Allen Robinson in Week 3, the Browns have relinquished one touchdown to Justin Jefferson, Brandin Cooks, and Tyreek Hill.
SIT: BAKER MAYFIELD, QUARTERBACK, BROWNS
We know that the Browns are a run-first offense. Mayfield’s most passing attempts are 33, and of those, he completed 15 for 155 yards and zero touchdowns last week against Minnesota.
The Chargers are giving up the fifth-fewest fantasy points to the quarterback position.
PROP BETS: Check out the PlayerPickup_ & GoingFor2 Prop Bets
DETROIT LIONS @ MINNESOTA VIKINGS, 49.5 o/u, Vikings -7.5
START: KIRK COUSINS, QUARTERBACK, VIKINGS
Yes, I intimately know that last week was not a good one for Cousins. His 20-of-38, 203 yards, one touchdown, and one interception yielded 12.1 fantasy points.
Look for him to bounce back this week against the Lions. The Lions aren’t terrible. They rank 16th in passing yards allowed (248.5). But except for Justin Fields, they have allowed at least one passing touchdown in each game (four to Aaron Rodgers).
Last week Cousins was dominated by Myles Garrett and company. The Lions don’t have that kind of firepower.
SIT: JARED GOFF, QUARTERBACK, LIONS
Not sure who needs to hear this, but Goff has not been good (except for Week 1, where he was QB3). Since then, he has been QB15, QB30, and QB 22, respectively.
The Vikings’ defense is slowly improving. Week 4, they held Russell Wilson to 23-of-32, 298 yards, one touchdown, and two sacks. Last week they limited to Mayfield 15-of33, 155 yards, zero touchdown, and three sacks.
Goff is too mistake-prone to trust him against this defense.
BETMGM NFL PARLAY BET: LIONS TO WIN BY 4+ POINTS AND 41+ TOTAL POINTS SCORED > + 825 <
GREEN BAY PACKERS @ CINCINNATI BENGALS, 49.5 o/u, Packers -3.5
START: TYLER BOYD, WIDE RECEIVER, BENGALS
In this shoot-out, everyone is going to be concentrating on Jamarr Chase. Play Boyd. He owns a 79.1% snap share and a 28.6% target share while playing 60%+ snaps out of the slot.
In the last two games, the Packers have allowed two touchdowns and over 100 receiving yards to slot receivers.
SIT: ROBERT TONYAN, TIGHT END, PACKERS
The Bengals are giving up the sixth-fewest fantasy points to the tight end position (5.90) while allowing only one touchdown from the position.
Last week Tonyan had seven targets, two receptions, and eight yards. His only game over 10 receiving yards was against the Detroit Lions, where he had 52 yards and a touchdown.
TENNESSEE TITANS @ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS, 48.5 o/u, Titans -4
START: LAVIISKA SHENAULT JR., WIDE RECEIVER, JAGUARS
The unfortunate injury to DJ Chark puts Shenault back in fantasy relevance. Last week Shenault was on the receiving end of a team-high seven targets, six receptions, 99 yards, and one rushing attempt for 11 yards.
Tennessee, for their part, has given up the second-most fantasy points to the wide receiver position.
SIT: NICK WESTBROOK-IKHINE, WIDE RECEIVER, TITANS
There was a concerted effort to make Westbrook-Ikhine a thing. Stop it. Westbrook-Ikhine managed three receptions on eight targets for 29 yards even without Julio Jones and AJ Brown in the lineup. Just Stop.
MIAMI DOLPHINS @ TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS, 47.5 o/u, Buc -10
START: JACOBY BRISSETT, QUARTERBACK, DOLPHINS
The game script predicts the Dolphins will be playing from behind. While Tampa Bay’s run defense is feared, its pass defense is not. The Buccaneers are currently giving up the fifth-most fantasy points to the quarterback position (23.79) and the most fantasy points to the wide receiver position (43.95).
Sharp Football Analysis on “Why you should bet the over for Jacoby Brissett pass completions Week 5:
- Dolphins high pass rate
- Buccaneers elite run defense
- Fast-paced offenses
SIT: CAMERON BRATE, TIGHT END, BUCCANEERS
With Rob Gronkowski out in the foreseeable future, Brate should be the next man up…and he probably will be. Last week, he was targeted six times but only managed two receptions and 29 yards.
In a game that will see lots of Leonard Fournette and Tom Brady attempting to shake off last week’s performance, Brate may be the last man out.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS @ BALTIMORE RAVENS, 47 o/u, Ravens -7
START: MO ALIE-COX, TIGHT END, COLTS
First, let’s start with the “but what about” comparison.
COX: 53.6% snap share; 11 targets, 8% target share, 3 red-zone targets
Jack Doyle: 54% snap share, 15 targets, 10.9% target share, 2 red-zone targets
BUT…in the last three games, Doyle’s targets went from 8 to 2 to 1, while Alie-Cox’s targets went from 2 to 2 to 5.
And then, of course, the Ravens are giving up the most fantasy points to the tight end position (16.93).
SIT: ANY BALTIMORE RUNNING BACK NOT NAMED LATIVUS MURRAY
The leading rusher on the Ravens is quarterback Lamar Jackson, and it really isn’t even close (279 rushing yards to Tyson Williams 164 and Murray’s 151).
The Colts are giving up the eighth least fantasy points to the running back position (16.45).
Murray has been on the field for increasing snap counts ( 31% Week 1 to 62% Week 4) while Williams is decreasing his on-field time. Injuries notwithstanding, there is not another running back which equals Murray’s field time, and in Baltimore, that means more chances to run with Jackson.
>THIS IS MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL GAME<
NEW YORK JETS @ ATLANTA FALCONS, 46o/u, Falcons -3.5
>London Game set your lineups earlier than normal for this one<
START: CORDARRELLE PATTERSON, RUNNING BACK, FALCONS
The Jets are allowing the second-most fantasy points to the running back position (29.38). Last week Patterson had six rushes for 34 yards AND six targets, five receptions, 82 receiving yards, and three touchdowns. He had seven rushes for 20 yards, seven targets, six receptions, and 82 yards the week before that.
He can’t keep this up, right? Play him until it stops.
SIT: TEVIN COLEMAN, RUNNING BACK, JETS
Is anyone seriously playing him?
CHICAGO BEARS @ LAS VEGAS RAIDERS, 45.5 o/u, Raiders -4.5
START: DAMIEN WILLIAMS, RUNNING BACK, BEARS
The Bears run the ball on 48.9% of their offensive plays ( third-highest). The Raiders are giving up the seventh-most fantasy points to the running back position (24.45).
Williams averages 4.6 yards per carry. Last week he rushed for 55 yards and a touchdown on eight carries.
SIT: KENYAN DRAKE, RUNNING BACK, RAIDERS
It appears the Drake experiment in Vegas may be over. Last week Josh Jacobs played on 63% of the offensive plays while Drake was on the field for 35%.
What might be more telling is that Jacobs saw five targets while Drake was not targeted.
It is impossible to predict what Jon Gruden may or may not do, but it appears that Jacobs is back, and Drake has just had his One Dance.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES @ CAROLINA PANTHERS, 45 o/u, Panthers -4
START: CHUBA HUBBARD, RUNNING BACK, PANTHERS
Hubbard isn’t Christian McCaffrey, but he is good enough. The Eagles are not only giving up the sixth-most fantasy points to the running back position (25.60), but they are also giving up the second-most rush yards per game (127.3).
For his part in the last two weeks, Hubbard has rushed 11 times and 13 times for 52 yards and 57 yards, respectively.
The Panthers average 29.2 rushing attempts per game, which should be enough to make Hubbard fantasy relevant even without being targeted.
SIT: MILES SANDERS, RUNNING BACK, EAGLES
Week 4 Sanders was on the field for 47 snaps (64%), while Kenneth Gainwell saw 29 snaps (39%). The outcome was the inverse. Sanders had seven rushing attempts for 13 yards, three targets, three receptions for 34 yards. Meanwhile, Gainwell had three rushing attempts for 31 yards and a touchdown. Gainwell also saw eight targets, six receptions, and 58 receiving yards.
The production is not on Sanders’s side.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS @ WFT, 44.5 o/u, Saints -1.5
START: JAMEIS WINSTON, QUARTERBACK, SAINTS
I so want to trust Winston in this one. WFT is a sieve in the passing game. They are ranked 29th in passing yards allowed (299) and give up the most fantasy points to the quarterback position (28.08).
The problem is that the Saints are ranked dead last in passing attempts per game 22.5 and next to last in passing yards per game 144.
But oh, if Sean Payton doesn’t let Winston shine here, then when?
SIT: TAYLOR HEINICKE, QUARTERBACK, WFT
Last week I was all for starting Heinicke. Today not so much. The Saints are allowing the seventh-fewest fantasy points to the quarterback position.
The Saints have seven interceptions and five sacks in four weeks.
Heinicke has played well, including 290 passing yards and three touchdowns against the Falcons last week. But that was the Falcons’ defense. The Buffalo Bills got him for two interceptions and the New York Giants for one.
WFT will be without right guard Brandon Scherff and tight-end Logan Thomas. That doesn’t help.
BETMGM PLAYER PROPS: Winston over 204.5 passing yards -105; Winston under 1.5 passing touchdowns -155
Heinicke over 240.5 passing yards -115; Heinickeover 1.5 passing touchdowns +105
DENVER BRONCOS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS, 40.5o/u, Steelers -1
START: COURTLAND SUTTON, WIDE RECEIVER, BRONCOS
This comes with a caveat if Teddy Bridgewater plays the Broncos’ chances and Sutton’s value rise. The Steelers are giving up the fifth-most fantasy points to the wide receiver position (36.60).
Sutton leads the team in targets (28) with three red-zone targets. But be aware of who is under center for the Broncos and adjust your expectations accordingly.
SIT: BEN ROETHLISBERGER, QUARTERBACK, STEELERS
Is anyone playing him? If you are, why?
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS @ HOUSTON TEXANS, 40 o/u, Patriots -9
START: DAMIEN HARRIS, RUNNING BACK, PATRIOTS
Forget last week’s four attempts for negative four yards against a team, giving up an average of 47.5 rushing yards per game and allowing 15.73 fantasy points to the running back position.
This week the Patriots play a team that is giving up an average of 137 rushing yards per game and allowing 23.48 fantasy points to the running back position.
SIT: DAVIS MILLS, QUARTERBACK, TEXANS
Mills completed 11 of 21 passes last week. He finished with 87 passing yards, zero touchdowns, and four interceptions.
This week he will play Bill Belichick’s Patriots. Who just held Tom “friggin” Brady to 269 yards and zero touchdowns. And yeah, the Patriots are giving up the fourth-fewest fantasy points to the quarterback position.
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