So the Bye Weeks begin, and now, in addition to injuries, you have players on a Bye Week. So buckle up, babies, and let’s get to the start sits for the Sunday/Monday games.
BUFFALO BILLS @ TENNESSEE TITANS, 54 o/u, BILLS -5.5 (MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL)
Start: Zack Moss, Running Back, Bills:
The Titas have allowed a running back to score a touchdown in four games in a row.
Moss currently has 17 red zone opportunities, resulting in four touchdowns. He also has three red-zone targets. In Week 5, Moss played 74% of the offensive snaps.
His counterpart Devin Singletary was on the field for 26% of the offensive snaps in Week 5. Singeltary has nine red zone opportunities, resulting in zero touchdowns and one red-zone target.
Sit: Ryan Tannehill, Quarterback, Titans:
This may be hard to hear, but Tannehill has not scored more than 21 fantasy points in five games. In addition, Buffalo is giving up the least amount of fantasy points to the quarterback position (10.42).
Buffalo is also giving up the fourth-lowest fantasy points to the running back position. But seriously, who do you trust more, Derrick Henry or Tannehill?
PROP BETS: DraftKing Sportsbook= Total TDs over 6 -135
ARIZONA CARDINALS @ CLEVELAND BROWNS, STARTED 53 o/u, NOW 49.5 o/u, BROWNS -3
Start: DeAndre Hopkins, Wide Receiver, Cardinals
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It has been a disappointing start for Hopkins in fantasy land. There are a couple of reasons: one, the Cardinals are passing the pall of 53.68% of their offensive plays (27th in the league) and running the ball on 46.32% of their offensive plays (6th most in the league); and quarterback Kyler Murray is distributing the ball evenly. Last week Hopkins had 10 targets, Rondale Moore had six, and Christian Kirk had five (AJ Green had two after recording six targets in the first four games).
Cleveland’s defense only gives up 75.6 average rushing yards a game (2nd fewest in the NFL). They are yielding 285.2 passing yards per game (7th best in NFL), but in Week 5, this defense did give up 47 points and 493 yards to the Los Angeles Chargers. That includes two passing touchdowns to Mike Williams and one to Austin Ekeler.
Hopkins has a 94.1% snap share and a 21.7% target share. It’s Hopkins time, right?
Sit: David Njoku, Tight End, Browns
In the melee of last week’s 42-47 loss, Njoku had seven targets, seven receptions, 149 yards, and one touchdown. It is tempting to ride that hot hand, and just keep in mind that the Cardinals are giving up the third-fewest fantasy points to the tight end position.
No tight end has amassed more than 40 yards or scored a touchdown on this defense.
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS @ BALTIMORE RAVENS, 52 o/u, RAVENS -3
Start: Lativus Murray, Running Back, Ravens
The Ravens backfield is often blurry, thanks in large part to quarterback Lamar Jackson. But the snap count for the last three weeks is helpful.
- Murray: Week 3 snap count 33%, Week 4 snap count 62% and, Week 5 snap count 49%
- Ty’Son Williams: Week 3 snap count 50%, Week 4 snap count 0%, and Week 5 snap count 19%
The only caveat is that Williams has out-targeted Murray nine to three.
Last week Nick Chubb ran for 161 yards and one touchdown against the Chargers, while Kareem Hunt added 61 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns.
JUST A NOTE: The Chargers are giving up the fifth-most fantasy points to the tight end position. Like you were going to sit Mark Andrews.
Sit: Joshua Kelley, Running Back, Chargers
This is an Austin Ekeler game. The Ravens held Jonathan Taylor to 53 rushing yards and one touchdown but watched him catch three receptions on four targets for 116 yards and one touchdown (yeah, 76 yards of that was on one play…nevertheless). The Ravens are only yielding 93.2 average rushing yards a game (7th best in NFL).
PROP BET: DRAFTKINGS WEEKLY SPECIAL = Lamar Jackson over 74.5 rushing yards and Justin Herbert over 299.5 passing yards YES +275
CINCINNATI BENGALS @ DETROIT LIONS, STARTED 49 o/u CURRENTLY 47.5 o/u, BENGALS -3.5
Start: Joe Mixon, Running Back, Bengals
Mixon was reportedly limited in practice. Keep an eye on the situation. If he starts, you start him as the Lions are giving up the second-most fantasy points to the running back position (28.38).
Sit: Jared Goff, Quarterback, Lions
Goff stats last three games:
- vs Baltimore 22-of-30, 217 yards, 0 TD, 0 Int, 1 carries 4 yards
- @ Chicago 24-of-38, 299 yards, 2 TD, Int, 3 carries 8 yards
- @ Minnesota 21-of-35, 203 yards, 0 TD, 1 Int, 0 carries 0 yards
And oh yeah, the Bengals are giving up the seventh-fewest fantasy points to the quarterback position, which includes playing against Aaron Rodgers, Trevor Lawrence, and Kirk Cousins.
DALLAS COWBOYS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS, 51 o/u, COWBOYS -3.5
Start: Hunter Henry, Tight End, Patriots
Henry’s targets in the last three weeks are six, five, and team-leading eight. Jakobi Meyers targets the last three weeks, 14, 12, and five.
Henry has scored a touchdown in the last two games, Meyers has yet to see the end zone.
And, of course, the Cowboys are giving up the sixth-most fantasy points to the tight end position.
Sit: Amari Cooper, Wide Receiver, Cowboys
First, there is the fact that the Patriots are giving up the fourth-fewest fantasy points to the wide receiver position. Then, Dallas attempts only 33.2 passes a game (23rd in the NFL) while rushing the ball 32.6 times a game (3rd most in the NFL). And the emergence of Dalton Schultz, who has led the team in targets the last two weeks, is of some concern.
But most concerning is whether Cooper is injured or not and will he be able to play the entire game.
LOS ANGELES RAMS @ NEW YORK GIANTS, 48.5 o/u, RAMS -9.5
Start: Tyler Higbee, Tight End, Rams
Higbee is on the field for 88% snap share, and it is not just for blocking. He has seen 35 slot snaps, six red-zone targets and has a target share of 11.8%.
Last week he managed a touchdown on two targets, two receptions, and 14 yards.
This week he will play against the team that gives up the fourth-most fantasy points to the tight end position.
Sit: Evan Engram, Tight End, Giants
Last week the Giants were without Darius Slayton, Sterling Shepard, and Kenny Golladay. Engram still could not find the resources to step up and fill a gap. He finished the day with four receptions, 55 yards, and no touchdown.
This week he goes up against a Rams defense that has surrendered only one touchdown by a tight end. Engram has got to show more to be trusted.
MINNESOTA VIKINGS @ CAROLINA PANTHERS, 46 o/u, VIKINGS -2 (FUN FACT BEGINNING OF WEEK DK HAD CAROLINA -1.5)
Start: DJ Moore, Wide Receiver, Panthers
The Vikings’ secondary is less than advertised. They are giving up 14.2 yards per reception and an average of 23 fantasy points to the position.
Sam Darnold is becoming a concern, but Moore is on the field for 83.7% of the snap share and sees 28.7% of the target share.
He and Darnold should be able to muster fantasy Yahtzee.
Sit: Kirk Cousins, Quarterback, Vikings
With the Bye Week upon us, this is more of a temper your expectations because you will have to play him. But keep in mind the Panthers defense is giving up a league-low 161.6 passing yards per game, and they surrender the eighth fewest fantasy points to the quarterback position (17.25) and rank second in Football Outsiders pass defense DVOA.
PROP BETS: KIRK COUSINS OVER/UNDER 262.5 PASSING YARDS (This line is below his season average of 279.2)
GREEN BAY PACKERS @ CHICAGO BEARS, 44o/u, Packers -5
Start: Damien Williams, Running Back, Chicago
Since Justin Fields has taken over under center, the Bears have run the ball 65% of the time. Williams has had a touchdown in his last two games.
The Packers rank 11th in rushing yards allowed (102.2) but have surrendered at least one rushing touchdown in their last three games.
Sit: Robert Tonyan, Tight End, Packers
The Bears have given up one touchdown and the seventh-fewest fantasy points to the tight end position.
Tonyan has three red-zone targets, and his last visit to the end zone was four weeks ago against the Detroit Lions.
PROP BET: Davanta Adams and Aaron Jones over 299.5 combined rushing and receiving yards. YES +850
LAS VEGAS RAIDERS @ DENVER BRONCOS, 44 o/u, BRONCOS -3.5
Start: Noah Fant, Tight End, Broncos
Fant leads the Broncos with five red-zone targets. He is second on the team with 31 targets, 176 yards, and two touchdowns.
The Raiders aren’t very good in the red zone giving up 10 touchdowns on 11 tries.
Sit: Josh Jacobs, Running Back, Raiders
Jacobs hasn’t rushed for over yards in his last three games. He did have two touchdowns against Baltimore and one against Chicago while seeing targets over the last three games.
The Broncos’ defense is only giving up an average of 85.4 rushing yards a game (6th best in the NFL) and 8.93 fantasy points to the running back position (second-fewest in the NFL).
HOUSTON TEXANS @ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS, 43.5 o/u, COLTS -10
Start: Jonathan Taylor, Running Back, Colts
Is this too easy? The Texans are giving up 134.8 average rushing yards a game (26th in the NFL).
And although he only averages 49.5% snap share, Taylor is currently RB11. With 26 red zone touches (league-leading) and 18 targets, he has 327 rushing yards and 197 receiving yards.
Last week against a Ravens defense, he had 53 rushing yards, a touchdown, 116 receiving yards, and a touchdown.
Sit: Mark Ingram, Running Back, Texans
Did you know that last week the Colts prevented any Ravens running back from rushing for over 25 yards? (quarterback Lamar Jackson had 62 rushing yards)
Last week Ingram was the leading rusher for the Texans with 41 yards. He averaged 2.6 yards per carry, and he hasn’t rushed for over 45 yards since Week 1 against the Jacksonville Jaguars.
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS, 42.5 o/u, Steelers -5
Start: Chase Claypool, Wide Receiver, Steelers
JuJu Smith-Schuster is out for the season, and that is 6.8 targets a game that someone has to pick up. Last week, Claypool had the big game with team-leading six targets, five receptions, 130 yards, and a touchdown.
Now he takes a hot streak (is one game a hot streak?) a chance for extra targets against a Seahawks team that has allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to the wide receiver position.
Sit: Alex Collins, Running Back, Seahawks
The Seahawks will be without the services of Russell Wilson, and they may also be without Chris Carson.
Either way, this is not a good match-up for the running backs. The Steelers are allowing the fifth-fewest fantasy points to the running back position, and a running back has not scored a rushing touchdown against them.
PROP BET: DRAFTKINGS WEEKLY SPECIAL = Chase Claypool and DK Metcalf to combine for over 149.5 receiving yards YES +120
MIAMI DOLPHINS @ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS, 47o/u, Dolphins -3 (early London game)
Start: Laviska Shenault, Wide Receiver, Jaguars
Fool me once…well, it has only been once (last week…sorry), but this is a match-up that even Urban Meyer should not be able to mess up.
The Dolphins are giving up the fifth-most fantasy points to the wide receiver position, and they are especially vulnerable to the slot receiver, where Shenault has 144 snaps.
Sit: Tua Tagovailoa, Quarterback, Dolphins
Tagovailoa is expected to play after coming off the IR with his fractured rib. It isn’t the fear of the Jaguars’ defense but the fear of a second-year quarterback returning from injury playing in a game that he has to make a very long flight and play on a very different field.
Yep, I fear the unknown.
CONCLUSION
The injuries and bye weeks and coaches resigning and coaches “losing the locker rooms” and…yeah, it is a lot to negotiate while getting your fantasy line-up the best it can be.
If you need a little extra help on Sunday mornings, come to GoingFor2 Live Sunday Pregame Show with DFS expert @FantasyGDFS, stats man @FFJunkie85, IDP/Defensive expert @FantasyBBQ, and Prop bet czar @ev_ritt3 and me @gladysLtyler.
Come see us Sunday at 11am eastern…we got you.
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