The rise and fall of Average Draft Positioning strikes again!!!
Fine readers of the Going For 2 fanbase my name is @TheBLeagueSays and I am 100% stunned at the Marcus Mariota follow up. And thank you for the awesome feedback and conversations following my second Pros and Cons for the year on Marcus Mariota! Once again please remember that the articles I bring to you leading up to your traditional NFL Fantasy Draft Season will be based on the Pros and Cons of players that the Fantasy Football Community has split ideas on heading into your #DraftSZN, future fixtures, and matchups.
So before we get started – Thank you, and enjoy!
Ladies and Gentlemen of the @GoingFor_2 universe, I am here today to introduce you to this weeks topic of conversation, Mr. Devonta Freeman. Mr. Freeman has been the focal point of recent times due to (and I will crack into it later on) a quick collection of injuries and as a result time away from the game. And predicting injuries is a dangerous game that none of us can or should play, just like Russian Roulette, so let’s not spin the gun in that direction, yeah?
It has been one of the more intriguing topics of conversation this summer. And to be honest, I feel like the above heading is apt. Devonta Freeman has been dropping in A.D.P this summer and I believe for more than anything, relative reasoning. And as boring as it seems that reason is caution, that’s it. His 2018 season was non-existent, for pretty much the sole argument of injuries. The Falcons were looking toward another stellar season as the Super Bowl was to be played in their brand new stadium. Freeman in tandem with Tevin Coleman was ready to toe the line and cause headaches for any opposition week in and out. But as we know, that didn’t eventuate for him and the Falcons were as unpredictable as Football and Fantasy Football can be, we now see a fairly different backfield one year later. Freeman is the primary benefactor of Tevin Coleman moving west, and a lack of Free Agent acquisitions or jumping high on a Running Back in this past Draft, Devonta Freeman really should, in theory, be higher up on everyone’s draft boards.
But why the hesitation?
As the majority of people come back from their caves and start researching their favorite players again, Freeman should be a popular name that casual gamers are comfortable with – let’s get this out of the way now – I fully expect over the next few months for Freeman to drastically jump back up into everyone’s good graces based on name-brand familiarity alone. But, for those who play all year round, you would know that Freeman has slipped as far back as the 8.12 this past January (via fantasyfootballcalculator.com) and as I would clearly say due to awareness alone to those who are in the ‘Fantasy Football Community’ has spoken up aggressively to see him move back into the mid/late third round as the RB17. That’s a five-round jump in about six months from being a player labeled ‘injury prone’ to the ‘lone wolf in their backfield who will eat by himself’. That’s a hell of an ‘A.D.P comeback’ for someone who missed most of the past season if you ask me.
Anyways, people have been tilting one way or the other instead of relaxing in June and sleeping well, while finding some sanity and the middle ground, today I am here to hopefully provide some unbiased clarity for you moving forward.
THE PROS AND CONS
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‘STAT ROUTE SAYS’: When he was the RB1 overall in 2015, he did that by only attaining a total of 1056 yards rushing and by leading the RB position for total touchdowns with 14. The problem with all of this is that 2015 was a long time ago and has finished as the RB6, RB13, and the RB105 in the last 3 years since.
I could talk about 2015 here, but I won’t – because the majority of people who are for him will scream this at you loudly and often. I do however think that his 2014 Rookie season tells a bit of a better story that seems slightly familiar.
In 2019 we see the return of Offensive Coordinator Dirk Koetter who was a part of the Coaching Staff that originally drafted Devonta Freeman back in 2014. The Falcons finished the league with a 6-10 record, however, they did end up ranking 12th overall with Total Points scored, and 8th overall for Total Yards, were 3rd overall for Passing Attempts and 5th overall for Passing Yards; it’s fair to say that you wouldn’t be shocked to see Matt Ryan finish 9th Overall for Total Points scored in Fantasy Football that year (he finished as the QB7) or that Julio Jones was the WR6 that year also. It also would make more sense knowing that it was on Defence where they got punished by being the 27th Ranked Defence to close the year out as well as being last overall for Yards conceded.
So as you can see (and probably put the narrative pieces together yourself), if the Defence is struggling and that Matt Ryan was throwing a lot more than normal, and Julio Jones is getting the ‘lions share’ and that it is also safe to say that hypothetically the run game (I wouldn’t say struggled) didn’t get the workload you think it could. And you would be right – they ranked 27th Overall for Attempts, 24th Overall for Yards and 17th Overall for Touchdowns between Steven Jackson who finished as the RB27, Freeman who finished as the RB48 as a Rookie and Jacquizz Rodgers who finished as the RB52 (in PPR).
Even though we reflect on the incredible 2015 season that Freeman ultimately had – and I will get to that – the blueprint for his success in the following year was laid out between him and Rodgers in 2014. The two of them combined for a 77-59-398-2 Touchdowns season in the Receiving game alone. He succeeded in 2015 because he essentially ate the Targets all up himself as Jackson and Rodgers moved on while Tevin Coleman didn’t factor in as much as a Rookie. Freeman by proxy pumped out numbers because he was pretty much the only guy available. He was essentially the entire 2014 Running Back roster in 2015 and that more than anything needs to be reiterated. This is also the reason why people are jumping back on. No real threat in the backfield to take many Attempts or Targets away. It makes perfect and logical sense to believe in a situation we have seen played out for the same before.
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Ironically at the start of this segment, I said that 2014 seems all too similar to what the 2018 season had just played out. Straight off the bat, their Defence struggled as one of the worst in the league, similar to that which happened in 2014. Â So naturally, the same names did and didn’t pop up. Matt Ryan flourished as the QB2 in Fantasy (similar), Julio Jones again finished with the elite as the WR5 (similar) along with Rookie Calvin Ridley as the WR19, and Austin Hooper finished as the TE6. The Falcons had a 7-9 record (similar), ranked 10th for Points Scored (similar), 6th for Total Yards (similar), 30th overall for Rushing Attempts (similar), and 27th for Rushing Yards (similar). As a whole, they nearly replicated the 2014 season.
If you are someone who has Freeman as a Keeper or in Dynasty you are legitimately licking your chops at the narrative for correction and balance that 2015 was as a follow-up performance and that Freeman, again, is the benefactor. Freeman is likely to be used in this circumstance by Koetter as his Steven Jackson was who did the bulk of the work – however, did so with 190-707-6 Touchdowns Rushing only. That’s a decent floor before we add the receptions in there too, right?
‘STAT ROUTE SAYS’: He got to be the number one Running Back overall in 2015, he did so by stepping up in the receiving game by having the third most targets/receptions behind Danny Woodhead and Theo Riddick. Freeman had 97-73-578-3 TDS in the receiving game.
Freeman crushed the 2015 season as a Receiving Running Back, which is something that I mentioned above, was a role he looked good in as a Rookie. Oddly, the team Drafted Tevin Coleman who ironically was known to be exceptional as a ‘passing down back’ that season. Coleman didn’t factor in too much, and Freeman on the back of a big season which included slightly under 1100 yards again, and another 62 Targets and 400-plus yards Receiving with a Super Bowl appearance in the 2016 season, saw Freeman really get paid well with a 5-year deal; making him one of the most expensive Running Backs in the league, still to the day. Currently, Freeman has a dead cap hit of around $12m, but that cuts in half next season to around about $6, two years prior to the expiry of this particular contract. I can imagine that if Freeman struggles to make the field as he didn’t in the 2018 season or make an impact, this very well could be it for him in Atlanta at the end of this season. I mentioned that this would likely be the final year of his ‘high’ dead cap hit, next season he will also be 28. Add in the injuries and the numbers, you do have to be concerned about his situation if he does not produce as he has in the past.
‘STAT ROUTE SAYS’: A great scalp to claim in Fantasy for Freeman was that he has finished as the RB1 overall (in 2015). However, since he debuted in 2014 it is the lowest amount of total yards gained for the RB1 overall to finish with. DeMarco Murray in 2014 had a combined 2261 yards for Dallas. Freeman in 2015 had 1634 combined yards for Atlanta ). David Johnson made his mark in 2016 with a combined 2118 yards for Arizona. And Todd Gurley has finished as the RB1 in back-to-back years in 2017 and 2018 for the LA Rams with 2093, and 1831 yards respectively.
Ah, the elephant in the room:Â injuries and concussions.
Let’s start with the obvious; hen you a contact sport and run as aggressively (and admirably) as Devonta Freeman does, you are probably going to get hurt. If you are driving a car at 80 miles an hour at a brick wall and only one out of every four times you manage to not crash I’d say you’re probably having a bad time.
Such is the life of a Running Back…
I’ve attached the list of injuries that Freeman has had here via sportsinjurypredictor.com and you can see the list of problems he has had. Knee issues, concussions, sports hernias. It’s not great to see happen to someone so young and talented. However, you can rattle off a couple of guys currently who are higher ranked than Freeman is that has sustained similar injuries in their careers and you can follow the drop in trends for them too; see Todd Gurley this offseason and the hysteria over him being one of the top names off of the board to fall into the Second Round in redraft. It’s when guys (like Gurley and Freeman) start missing time or getting restricted snaps due to pain is where I tend to cool off – or to where the value of said player meets my own evaluation – yours may be different and that’s fine too. To me, I just don’t believe in ‘minor concussions’ (they’re all bad) and I don’t believe in ‘clean up’ procedure on a joint, especially if that restricts time leading up to the season starting. Pain and trauma (despite the individuals level of pain tolerance) still needs to be noted – and not brushed aside and ignored for the sake of a poor argument – and when you see the damage multiple times to the same spot it would behoove you to take that into consideration in 2019 when drafting Freeman. Again, he will only fall so far before someone’s evaluation will be met, how far he falls is another thing…
SEASON PROJECTION
STATS: CARRIES: 217 / RUSHING YARDS: 890.50 / RUSHING TDS: 8 / TARGETS: 64 / RECEPTIONS: 47 / RECEIVING YARDS: 397.25 / RECEIVING TDS: 1
FINAL FINISH: I have Devonta Freeman currently sitting in as the RB16. I would love nothing more than for him to be higher up and it’s not outside the realm of possibilities, but to what I have mentioned above, as I am worried about the health of all Running Backs as devastating contact is often and imminent, I am more concerned with a guy like Freeman who has had the ‘injury prone tag’ slapped to his name (fairly or not). I also kind of like Freeman to hit at least the 2016 floor that he had in the Receiving game (65-54-462-2 TDS). It’s been a while since Freeman had that sort of volume in the Passing game and the way that Matt Ryan has been throwing it about of late I can see this as an area to get Freeman into space and getting his speed and shiftiness into effect. I don’t see any other threat in that backfield to take that away from him.
GOING FOR 2 DYNASTY VALUE: Highest Rank: Ryan Cearfoss; @fntsyfbconnect as RB15 / Lowest Rank: Tyler Makings; @TPM_Sports as RB25 (as of 7/5/19). For more Dynasty Consensus Rankings check out: https://goingfor2.com/2019-dynasty-consensus-rankings-dynastyfootball/?fbclid=IwAR22Ba2td1TgE0O0u59_0ubIq4_ppZP6PQm2uuhFDKWBzK5s4y8IlfR6kfk
SUMMARY AND STANCE
So it can’t be the situation that throws you off, I refuse to believe it.
Sometimes new Coaches and staff want to bring in their guys and their lack of recruitment in Free Agency or the Draft and it seems that Koetter as the lead play-caller in Atlanta didn’t really look to chase anyone. Dirk Koetter gets to work with THE guy who he had drafted when he was previously there and the Falcons grabbed Qadree Ollison in the 5th Round of this years Draft. More than anything, Ollison is a ‘big-bodied thumper’ and doesn’t have the hands that Freeman undoubtedly has. Tevin Coleman has headed to San Francisco this offseason to team up with former Coach Kyle Shannahan hoping to reignite the flame of the Super Bowl run they had together with Atlanta only a few years ago. Ito Smith, along with Freeman, tends to be the other beneficiary of Coleman’s departure, but he had his chance at being the workhorse and didn’t show out as much as you would hope. After Smith, it really is a collection of names and guys who won’t see much time or work.
It can’t be his contract or age that throws you off, I refuse to believe that too.
Freeman’s contract rolls into the end of the 2022 season where he would be hitting his age 30 season, and from 2020 on you could maybe make the case that he is a cut candidate – but if he plays the way everyone knows and can (knock on wood) stay healthy then there is a chance that he repays the draft capital you outlay for him, and in that case, will probably stick about on the Falcons roster for another year to come. And when you factor in that he is only 26 right now, and there aren’t that many Running Backs who are (dare I say) fully relevant in terms of age. Mark Ingram and LeSean McCoy are 29 and 30 respectively. David Johnson is 27. There are a couple of Running Backs who see more work receiving than rushing like Chris Thompson and Dion Lewis who are slightly older. He’s only a year older than Melvin Gordon. Freeman is essentially the ‘leader of age’ when it comes to this generation’s breed of Running Backs.
It can only be the injury history. That’s it.
If we are breaking the player down based on talent and current environment then I would tend to believe that Freeman would likely jump into the Top 10 of Running Backs drafted, unquestioned. It’s current injury history that has likely thrown everyone off. And until we see him healthy without restrictions on don’t think that this thought process is going away anytime soon. We are drafting – or – avoiding Devonta Freeman based on recency bias and recency bias alone, and your job upon selecting him in your upcoming Draft is based on where you see him and his Pros and Cons and if you can handle taking him on to where he may fall. The situation couldn’t be better but His recent health history has you naturally hesitating. If you are in a league with like-minded people there is a chance that you may have to reach a round or so to get him if you believe in him. If you think you have the upper hand on your league then you may be surprised and see him fall further than you think.
I want to thank you for getting this far and taking in everything I have presented. You can as always follow and find me at @TheBLeagueSays and offer any view or conversation about this. Let’s all get better together!
Once again, Thank you and Enjoy!
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