The Pros And Cons Of Week 16 (#FantasyFootball)

‘The only sure thing about luck is that it will change.’ BRET HARTE.

Fine readers of the Going For 2 fanbase my name is @TheBLeagueSays and I am 100% not ready for the Fantasy Football season to end! And thank you for the awesome feedback and conversations following last weeks Pros and Cons – it seems to have struck a chord with the audience; who knew that after pumping up Amari Cooper that the Dallas Cowboys would let you down? Probably every Cowboys fan, I guess… Still, I am absolutely looking forward to addressing Week 16 with you, the Fantasy Football Championship Week. Once again please remember that the articles I bring to you will be based on the Pros and Cons of players or scenarios the Fantasy Football Community has split ideas on heading into future fixtures for your matchups.

So before we get started – Thank you, and enjoy!

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It’s here. This is it, ladies and gentlemen.

The last week of the Fantasy Football season is upon us. Championships with bragging rights and punishments for losers are about to take place, the last flurry of waiver wire filth is being looked at and begrudgingly picked up, and there are no more Thursday night games. This week, it is the beginning of the end and there is no way around it, unless you are entrenched in a dynasty league, or are a sucker playing a final in week 17. And at this point, oh loyal reader, I will give you absolutely zero insight or help whatsoever. Playing a final in Week 17? Yeah, you’re on your own.

But, as I said this is it. You drafted then you quickly threw out waiver claims Alfred Morris and Matt Breida (which seems like forever ago), along with our thought process on Royce Freeman being an unstoppable force this year and not being in another and G-D Running Back Committee. The ‘where will those vacant targets go’ crowds in Miami and Dallas have vanished (as the answer, for the most part, was ‘to nobody’) until a trade for Amari Cooper a few weeks back occurred.

‘Wentzylvania’ has shut down for the season, as has ‘Newton-Land’, ‘Flacco-Ville’, and ‘Bortle-O-Fun’, while ‘A-Rod-Tropollis’ looks like it could be the final week you can buy a ticket for the winter. You can however still get into ‘Manning-World’ if that floats your boat, but the rides are a little weak and only work maybe once a month.

Again. This is it, folks. The end.

If you were lucky to get this far, congratulations. Regardless of your league size or experience, the fact that you stuck with it and paid attention to the details (and you), probably made some moves on the waiver wire or via trades, and with a touch of luck you made it in.

Luck. ‘Luck is looking for a needle in a haystack and coming out with the farmer’s daughter.’ PHYLLIS MARTIN.

It’s a funny thing, isn’t it? All the combinations of players and lineups you could have set from statistical analysis to the good old-fashioned ‘eye test’, a lot of what this game comes down to is sometimes just pure luck. I’ll give you an example:

I commission an extremely competitive 14-team league (shout out to my namesake, ‘The B League’, and it’s participants – thanks for a hell of a year!). And I had an ok year, I finished 6th overall with an 8-5 record. My team is ok. Not great, it’s just ok.

I made moves during the year for Joe Mixon and Tyler Boyd, I have a good Running Back core and some ‘hit and miss’ Wide Receivers backed by (Captain) Andrew Luck. I (like many) just lost Emmanuel Sanders in Round 1 of the playoffs, and I was coming up against one of the league favorites who had Todd Gurley, Cam Newton, Davante Adams, Mike Evans, Doug Baldwin, Chris Carson, and Marlon Mack. The guy’s team is stacked, hell he even had Kenyan Drake somewhere on his bench. I was preoccupied during that week as my wife had just given birth and I was naturally putting Fantasy for the year in the rearview mirror. You know, the priorities of taking care of a newborn are apparently greater than the needs of my Fantasy team (who knew?!). And as I am always the optimist, I figured ‘hey, I outkicked my coverage with this team this year – it was a good run.’

Luck. ‘I will ride my luck on occasion, but I like to pick the occasion.’ REX STOUT.

Only Adams and Carson had double-digit Fantasy points that weekend and I coasted to a near 20 point win. Luck, Mixon, and Ezekiel Elliott went bonkers and that was enough to get me through. Ok fair enough, I won’t win the following week; not with my team and definitely not against the next guy’s roster (former 2017 runner-up) in Round 2 of the playoffs, whose team was equally loaded. I mean he had beautifully set up his squad. He drafted better than anyone, and he plays the matchups well – I will always give him credit, he’s an incredible opponent. His lineup has Patrick Mahomes, Alvin Kamara, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Adam Thielen. He even had Trey Burton, who finally stepped up last week after what felt like a dry spell of performances.

Luck. ‘Good luck in most cases comes through the misfortune of others.’ JACKIE STEWART.

He got cute with his selections for the first time that I can ever remember, and replaced the Overall Tight End 7 for the year, Trey Burton, with Christopher Herndon and lost points from Burton’s performance. His kicker was Aldrick Rosas; who didn’t have an attempt all weekend as the Giants were shut-out, while my kicker Ka’imi Fairbairn had one point less than Mahomes did. His Wide Receivers combined for less than 20 points (his third receiver was Julian Edelman, who was his best play at the position) and nearly got the win with Kamara and Saints DST against a banged up Panthers on Monday Night.

Luck. ‘No luck was dumb because luck was just another name for a miracle.‘ MARGARET ATWOOD.

My Mixon and Elliott backfield went strong again with Tyler Boyd and Vance McDonald picking up the slack. And again, 19 points from my kicker helped – which by the way, Kickers belong in Fantasy Football, end of story. I put the time, effort and research into it, it’s a point of difference for the game, stop being lazy and do the homework and play or stream the best option for the week, it’s not that hard to do. O.J. Howard who has been on the Injured Reserve for about a month is still the Tight End 9 Overall in Half Point Per Reception with a total of 103.5 points. There are 15 kickers with more points than Howard, so instead of getting rid of a position that (I don’t know, can score points to help teams win), why not fix or trash the Tight End position first? Rant aside, was there luck on my side in this game also? Yeah, you bet there was. If he plays Burton and a different Kicker I’m probably out.

Luck. ‘People always call it luck when you’ve acted more sensibly than they have.’ ANNE TYLER.

My lineup hasn’t changed, outside of injuries. In back-to-back weeks I’ve lost Sanders and Boyd, and have struggled to ‘replace’ them with any real improvement. I’ve just been flat out lucky. So, how lucky am I? How much luck can one attain? How do you physically run out of luck or even measure it? I’m not sure. But, keep in mind, again, I have lost Sanders and Boyd but won my two playoffs games to reach the final. Is that the payoff? Is that the sacrifice my team has to endure to win a championship?

Here’s a case of luck turning in an instance:

As I type this right now (I may be a day or two behind in releasing this article but it’s currently Thursday morning) Josh Gordon, my third Wide Receiver has just announced that he is stepping away from the game for mental health reasons. Back to the waiver wire, I go. This is in real time, exciting stuff! Who is out there? Tim Patrick? John Ross? How about… Chris Hogan, his direct replacement? Let’s do that! I may not play him but it stops the guy I’m playing against in the Championship week from picking him up also. But it’s a tough matchup against Buffalo and I had reservations about Gordon leading into the game anyway (not enough to bench him, don’t get me wrong), and that concern is only heightened because Chris Hogan is not Josh Gordon. I’ll play those odds, player added, done.

Luck. ‘You never know what worse luck your bad luck has saved you from.’ CORMAC MCCARTHY.

With player injuries and absences, I have picked up a couple of players to plug in as my third Wide Receiver. But this is how much I think luck can play into this (and if we can challenge it), here’s what I’m willing to do: I am going to poll the audience – and you the readers – are going to select the best two players for me to play heading into the Final of the league that I commission. I am a man of the people, so, people, who are our men this week?

Robby Anderson, NY Jets – last 4 Weeks; 30 Targets with 17 Receptions, 2 TDS, 242 Yards. Home to Green Bay who over the last 4 weeks are 7th worst against Wide Receivers allowing 19.01 points per game.

Robert Foster, Buffalo – last 4 Weeks; 19 Targets with 14 Receptions, 2 TDS, 333 Yards. At New England who over the last 4 weeks are 16th worst against Wide Receivers allowing 15.15 points per game.

Chris Hogan, New England – last 4 Weeks; 8 Targets with 6 Receptions, 1 TD, 135 Yards. Home to Buffalo who over the last 4 weeks are the 4th best against Wide Receivers allowing 11.52 points per game.

Luck. ‘A rabbit’s foot may bring good luck to you, but it brought none to the rabbit.’ AMBROSE BIERCE.

Let’s see how this plays out, Fantasy Football above all else should be fun, so let’s have some fun with it!

This week, if you got to this point of the year it’s because you did the research, played the matchups and had an extra ounce of luck that ‘luck’ that I have (or until recently) or haven’t had. So, for one more week, @TheBLeagueSays offers you one more week of good luck and fortune going forward. 

But, do you know…

• Who the Green Bay Packers back-up Quarterback DeShone Kizer is? Kizer was a 2017 Rookie drafted by Hue Jackson and the Cleveland Browns in the Second Round from the University of Notre Dame. He was highly touted in a class that included Deshaun Watson, Pat Mahomes, and Mitchell Trubisky. He was traded away this year to the Packers for Demarious Randall and a swap of Third Round picks. He could play this week if Aaron Rodgers can’t go, so keep an eye on that during the week.
• Who the Miami Dolphins Running Back Kalen Ballage is? Kalen Ballage was drafted in the Fourth Round from Arizona State University this year. They seem to be (finally) out of love with Kenyan Drake, and Frank Gore got hurt last week, so Ballage could be the cure after his break out game with 12-123-1 stats on the ground against Minnesota last week. They play the Jaguars this week who have been recently bossed by Derrick Henry, but in the past month, outside of Henry most Running Backs have struggled. If anything, mobile Quarterbacks have had slightly more success (Josh Allen with 99 yards and Josh Johnson with 49 yards). So be wary if this if you picked up Kalen Ballage and are leaning on using him in your lineup.
• Who the Cincinnati Bengals Wide Receivers Cody Core, John Ross, and Alex Erickson are? We know who John Ross is because of the ‘draft capital’ and name attached to him, but the others? Cody Core has capped out at a maximum 4 Targets and a high of 3 Receptions this season and hasn’t ticked over 30 yards in any game Receiving. While Erickson (who has similar numbers) can dabble in the slot (remember there’s no Tyler Boyd this week) and plays Special Teams, too. So… more Joe Mixon, right?

Luck. ‘We must believe in luck. For how else can we explain the success of those we don’t like?’ JEAN COCTEAU.

How many of you freaked out when Todd Gurley left the field with a knock to his knee last week? I did! How many of you read my article two weeks prior to the Playoffs starting and grabbed your stud Running Backs handcuff? Good. You should have Jaylen Samuels (literally, the article was about the ‘what if James Conner gets injured, what will you do’ scenario) and you should have had John Kelly and you should have had Justin Jackson and you should have had Rod Smith and you should have had so on, and so on, and so on.

How many of you grabbed any of the Denver Broncos Wide Receivers a few weeks ago as I said? I was all in on trading for Emmanuel Sanders and Courtland Sutton because of this very week’s favorable matchup. How many of you freaked out when Emmanuel Sanders went to the Injured Reserve? I did! DaeSean Hamilton and Tim Patrick are plugging respectable numbers in and they play Oakland this week. How many of you also have Tyler Boyd and are freaking out? I am! And how many of you grabbed John Ross like I wrote about before? My main focus of that article was when A.J. Green doesn’t play, Ross tends to score Touchdowns and is a fairly decent End Zone threat. Now there is no Green or Boyd. But here we are in the Fantasy Football Championship Week running with players we knew less than what we should have with stellar or handy matchups – but most of this could have been avoided if we did the work weeks ago.

If you did this (grabbed the handcuffs and the upside plays), now the favor returns because the ball has bounced your way and maybe your patience is about to be rewarded. All offseason I wrote about Proper Planning Prevents Poor Performance. I banged the drum for this. I just hope you read and applied. We can control only so much, but if you’ve prepared as best as you can at least when things start to turn against you, at least you can say you had a plan to work for the best case scenario and your process (in case a loss this week occurs) is something to hold onto.

Wow, @TheBLeagueSays, it’s the last article of the year and the only advice you have is ‘you may just need to be lucky?’ You, sir, are a clown! Get on with…

THE PROS

The Opportunities for Damien Williams ($5700 on Draft Kings), John Kelly ($4000) and Justin Jackson ($4800) seem to be in play for this week (provided that Todd Gurley, Melvin Gordon, and Spencer Ware are potentially ruled out) but let’s not forget about a guy who continually (somehow, I have no idea why) gets overlooked – Nick Chubb ($7300). I love Chubb’s (phrasing!) matchup with week against the Bengals, who give up nearly 31 points per game (in Half Point Per Reception) to the position. The last time they played, Chubb had 28 carries for 84 Yards and a Touchdown with 3 Receptions and 44 Yards with a Touchdown to go with it also. Whatever the game script, Chubb will be involved and think he has an amazing chance to be a, if not the top player at the position this week.

The matchups for Jamaal Williams ($5400) and Elijah McGuire ($4700) will be out there for the world to see as their respective squads face each other, but how about a guy like Kenneth Dixon ($4100)? Last week the Chargers had Damien Williams run all over them, however, he was as effective in the air with 74 Yards Receiving that complimented the respectable 49 Yards Rushing he had. Oh, and 2 Touchdowns helped out as well! But, Dixon has seen more time on the field lately despite Gus Edwards’ ($4400) recently wonderful game and with the Baltimore Ravens Wide Receivers being stuck between nowhere-and-purgatory I feel like Lamar Jackson ($5500) might find Dixon in a bit of space in the backfield and that could pay dividends in the end.

The tie-breaker for those who are in a bit of a jam is a surprising admission from yours truly. It looks like Rashaad Penny ($4000) is done for the week, so in Half or Full Point Per Reception formats, how about Mike Davis ($3800)? I know it’s a ‘dart throw’ play, I get it, but they play the Chiefs at home. And in a game where Seattle could and should be behind I can imagine that Davis gets the nod in passing downs, So I feel like he could be a sneaky play. Last week Chris Carson ($5800) was heralded because he had his most Targets and Receptions (6-6-29) since Week 1 against Denver – but has had over three Receptions only three times this year – so I don’t think that will be the norm going forward particularly if they want to protect Carson for a potential Playoff run. Last week in the same game Mike Davis went 8-8-63 in the air with 21 Yards on the ground also.

That’s just great @TheBLeagueSays, that’s just great! You changed the format of the article in the one week where we are looking for consistency from you, you bozo! Get on with…

THE CONS

The disadvantages for Todd Gurley ($9200) drafters this week is apparent, as a game against Arizona could be a short one for him as last week he took a knock to the knee where he missed a little bit of time. I mean he recovered and crushed the rest of the game but still I can’t imagine the Rams want a half banged up Gurley leading into the Playoffs. Hey, remember that time a few weeks ago when Melvin Gordon ($7600) was hurt and the Chargers let him play (ironically against the Cardinals of all teams also) and did his knee in too? And that Gordon hasn’t played since? Should the Rams blow the Cardinals out of the sky (get it, because they’re birds?), then it could be a game where John Kelly ($4000) takes over. Is the risk of furthering Gurley’s damage worth the reward of a win against a useless Cardinals team in a game where the outcome is all but decided already?

The matchup this week (if you got this far) with James Conner ($7000) is brutal, against the Saints who have been tough on the run game. And, where Conner may or may not play this will affect Jaylen Samuels ($6700) managers also. The Saints have given up only 14.13 points per game over the past 4 weeks to the Running Back position and are as focused as ever to close out their season a week early by clinching the NFC.

The tie-breaker for me is that since ‘Snacks’ Damon Harrison turned up in Detroit their Run Defense has improved dramatically and facing Minnesota this week would have Dalvin Cook ($6900) drafters concerned, seeing as he looked like he finally returned to form. His touches have increased each week over the past month, but Latavius Murray ($3800) also got time last week and had a Touchdown as well off of 15 Attempts. He’s (Cook) a flex play for me, and you’re hoping he’s catching passes to maximize his outcome once more.

PROJECTIONS

All projections are for the respective Players ceiling

Kenneth Dixon: Carries: 12 / Yards Per Carry: 4.49 / Yards: 53.88 / TDS: 1 / Targets: 3 / Receptions: 2 / Yards: 20.66 / TDS: 1

Mike Davis: Carries: 8 / Yards Per Carry: 4.76 / Yards: 38.08 / TDS: 1 / Targets: 5 / Receptions: 4 / Yards: 36.99 / TDS: 1

Dalvin Cook: Carries: 13 / Yards Per Carry: 4.81 / Yards: 62.53 / TDS: 1 / Targets: 7 / Receptions: 5 / Yards: 37.72 / TDS: 1

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SUMMARY

Luck. ‘When it comes to luck you make your own.’ BRUCE SPRINGSTEEN.

Does it seem weird to you that my ‘Pros And Cons’ was solely based on Running Backs? Crazy right? I’ve lost every starting Wide Receiver and yet the consensus has still trended in the opposite direction and is looking to see where they can maximize their volume plays in the last week of the year. Gurley, Gordon, Conner, Ware, Leonard Fournette, and Drake could all be rested and in some circumstances like the last two names I mentioned could be phased out all week – which is devastating to think this week, of all weeks, could happen to you. Add to that list Rashaad Penny, LeSean McCoy, Lamar Miller, and Austin Ekeler missing time. While Aaron Jones, Isaiah Crowell, Kerryon Johnson, and Ito Smith are all now on the Injured Reserve; all of a sudden we are missing nearly 13 potential starting Running Backs in the Fantasy Football Championship Week.

But to recommended Kalen Ballage and Cody Core in the most important game of your year? Come on now, what am I, crazy? Don’t answer that.

But I am pumped to see how this poll works out and if we chose my lineup correctly, maybe you’ll help me this week in return, or punish me for 16 Weeks of bad advice. Either way, let’s see which side luck rides one last time!

I want to thank you for getting this far and taking in everything I have presented. Set your lineups accordingly and check out the DFS and Weekly Content all the hard-working staff is pumping out to get you best prepared. Also – download the Going For 2 app, then and rate, review and share with your loved ones. You all deserve it!

You can as always follow and find me at @TheBLeagueSays and offer any view or conversation about this. Let’s all get better together!

Once again, Good Luck and Enjoy!

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