The Quarterback Fantasy Freak Out for 2022
So, the fantasy freak-out (okay fallout if you wish) isn’t waiting for the NFL 2022 Draft. And why would it? All the intrigue and tasty morsels were already on teams.
It is true that the fantasy fortunes of quarterbacks depend not only on their team but also on who is on the other side of that pass. But let’s face it talent does matter.
Here are quarterback changes that will affect your fantasy landscape.
AFC EAST
The AFC East remained intact, for now. Teddy Bridgewater will back up Tua Tagovailoa, who the new coach, Mike McDaniel is all in. (Yes, the next freak-out will be the wide receiver landscape that is causing cataclysmic fantasy upheaval).
AFC NORTH
And now it gets interesting.
Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers acquired Mitchell Trubisky in free agency, to replace retired quarterback Ben Roethlisberger.
Trubisky the first-round pick in the 2017 NFL Draft is 6’2”, 222 lbs., with 9.5” hands.
Last season Trubisky played back-up in Buffalo. He played in six games.
Stats please: 8 passing attempts, 75% completion rate, 5.4 yards per attempt, 24 rushing yards, and 43 passing yards.
Last season the Steelers passed the ball the second-most of any team but the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 63.44%. That was a slight step back from the previous year where they passed the ball on 65.48% of their plays.
Cleveland Browns
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Cleveland Rocks would appear to apply to the turbulence felt around the quarterbacks in Cleveland.
The Browns acquired Deshaun Watson via trade. As of this writing, Baker Mayfield is still technically a Brown, but this is now Watson’s team.
Watson did not play last season. The first-round pick in the 2017 NFL Draft stands 6’2”, 221 lbs., with 9 ¾” hand size.
Watson’s last season on the field was the 2020 season.
Stats: 16 games, 544 passing attempts, 70.2% completion rate, 8.9 yards per attempt, 444 rushing yards, 4823 passing yards, 33 touchdowns.
He averaged 23.5 fantasy points per game.
The question on a team with Nick Chubb that ran the ball the sixth most in the league, 46.02% of their plays were rushing plays, what is the offensive plan here? There is also the chance that Watson could still be suspended by the NFL.
Hey, if he isn’t suspended a team that passed the ball for an average of 30.6 times a game (28th in the league) ow has an efficient passer under center.
For clarity in his three seasons with the Browns, Mayfield’s completion percentage has been 59.4%, 62.8% and 60.5% respectively.
AFC SOUTH
Embed from Getty ImagesBye Carson Wentz. Hello Matt Ryan.
The Indianapolis Colts purged themselves of their one-year mishap and traded for Matt Ryan.
The question will be, how much will Ryan be asked to do?
The Colts had the fifth-most rushing attempts per game (29.4) while ranking 28th in passing play percentage (52.7%).
The Colts’ running back Jonathan Taylor led the league in red zone opportunities (93), while quarterback Wentz threw 27 touchdowns.
Who:
So far, the Colts have Michael Pittman Jr. and Mo Allie-Cox for Ryan. It is not the same as looking downfield and seeing Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley, or Kyle Pitts. (And sure, this season he would have been looking at Pitts) and there lies the good news, Ryan can target one player consistently, last season it was Pitt (110 targets), and in 2020 it was Ridley (143 targets).
This bodes well if Ryan and Pittman can develop chemistry. But remember this is Taylor’s team, Ryan is just along for the ride.
AFC WEST
They don’t call it the wild, wild west for nothing (I had to say it).
Denver Broncos acquired the services of Russell Wilson via trade. Now, this division claims Patrick Mahomes, Derek Carr (with Tyreek Hill), Justin Herbert and now Wilson.
There is no doubt that Wilson comes in with the highest fantasy ceiling. Per Next Gen Stats since Next Gen Stats have been compiled, Wilson ranks first in pass attempts, completions, yards, touchdowns and expected points of 20-plus air yards.
Then you have the offensive line. Pro Football Focus’ end-of-season grades has the Broncos’ offensive line ranked 19th, allowing 165 pressures which ranked 15th.
And of course, you have Wilson’s weapons: Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton and Albert Okwuegbunam.
It will be hard to argue that Wilson is not the leader of fantasy potential in the AFC quarterback freak-out. And just keep in mind that in his last six seasons, Wilson has averaged 21% of his passes to his tight end. That number increases to 27% in the red zone.
NFC EAST
Embed from Getty ImagesThe Washington Commanders have acquired the services of Carson Wentz, from the Indianapolis Colts after his one year of services.
The most interesting thing here is that he will now play the Philadelphia Eagles twice a year.
But back to our fantasy focus. Is Wentz an upgrade from Taylor Heinicke?
Wentz 2021 stats: 17 games, 6.9 yards per attempt, 60 deep ball attempts, 80 red zone attempts, 20 touchdowns, 7 interceptions
Heinicke 2021 stats: 16 games, 6.9 yards per attempt, 64 deep ball attempts, 53 red zone attempts, 20 touchdowns, 15 interceptions
The weapons in Washington include Terry McLaurin, a hopeful healthy Curtis Samuel and Logan Thomas coming off an ACL injury.
There is nothing to see here…move on.
NFC NORTH
Ho hum business as usual Aaron Rodgers is back with Green Bay albeit without Davante Adams.
NFC SOUTH
The Atlanta Falcons now have Marcus Mariota under center. Mariota played nine games in 2021, one game in 2020 and seven games in 2019.
He is now under center for a team that can currently count on second-year tight end Kyle Pitts as their most proficient weapon (no offense to Cordarrelle Patterson).
This isn’t a complete freak-out until after the 2022 NFL Draft. The Falcons have the eighth pick and five picks in the first three rounds. With a wide receiver class, this deep and talented there is slightly less reason to completely dismiss Mariota.
It is worth mentioning in his last three “seasons” Mariota has rushed for 87, 88 and 129 yards in a very limited capacity.
NFC WEST
If you believe Drew Lock is the starter in Seattle, and he will fare better than he did in Denver…start freaking out now.
There is no clear-cut fantasy quarterback winner that has moved into the NFC. You want to hedge you bet, go with Mariota.
Otherwise, stay clear!
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