We all know Tua Tagovailoa and Justin Herbert were drafted to be the future QBs for Miami and LA respectively. But for our purposes heading towards and through August, it would be great to know when exactly their coaches plan to hand them the reigns. Unfortunately, that will never be the case, as we see year after year there are no definitive schedules as to when these first-round quarterbacks make their debut.
Knowing with a high degree of certainty as to when they’ll take the field would most definitely influence our draft rankings, so let’s explore how to make the best guesstimates when the situation isn’t as clear cut as Joe Burrow’s in Cincinnati.
First things first, coaches lie. All of them. Ignore the coach speak until the official announcement is made. For example, how many times did we hear praise by Cleveland for Tyrod Taylor the year they drafted Baker Mayfield? I lost count along the way (actually no, I didn’t even try to count) the number of times I heard the phrase “Tyrod Taylor is not a bridge.” Yes he was.
Despite what teams say “the plan” is as an approach to the season, there really is no plan. No matter what they say, the plan for all teams is simple. The rookie QB will play when the team decides he’s ready. They run hundreds of practice snaps every week, and you better believe they’ll know when they’re comfortable enough to throw the rookie into the fire. And no, they’re not obligated to tell us when they’ve reached that point.
Think back to Blake Bortles in 2014 in Jacksonville, and how they replaced Chad Henne. We were told ideally Bortles would sit the entire year and learn. He took over in September! The Eagles had the same plan for Carson Wentz but scrapped it too. They had no qualms trading away Sam Bradford when they got comfortable. Conversely, Aaron Rodgers sat for three years behind Brett Favre, but that appears to be more of an aberration than the norm these days.
The Bortles/Henne situation was similar to that of what we saw with the Giants last year. Daniel Jones would eventually take over for Eli Manning, and it helped that the Giants started 0-2 as the Jags did in 2014. Bad teams are more likely to make a change, whether for appearances or the starter is struggling, or simply because good teams don’t fix what’s not broken.
Thus our best projections are really just that. A feel for how likely a rookie QB may be thrown into the fire because we’ll never get any true honesty from the coaches as to just what they’re seeing in these practices. Factoring in the team’s overall talent level and likely record based on schedule strength as they head through the early part of the season, here goes:
Joe Burrow, Cincinnati – having released Andy Dalton, there’s no one else the Bengals can start week 1. Evaluation – mid QB2 in redraft leagues, treat as a top 10 QB in dynasty start ups, he’s my 1.09 in 1 QB rookie drafts, and 1.01 in dynasty Superflex rookie drafts.
Tua Tagovailoa, Miami – Fitzpatrick has been a successful journeyman and the Dolphins have a win-now attitude which is partly why Josh Rosen couldn’t get on the field last year. There are grumblings Tua could win the job for week one, but with constraints on OTA’s because of the pandemic, all rookies are going to be a bit behind the eight ball. If it’s not already Tua’s job heading into the opener, week 4 or week 7 are logical possibilities. Miami plays Thursday night at Jacksonville week 3, and after games against the Pats and Bills, an 0-3 start would scream for change. But if the matchups against Seattle and San Fran are too daunting, easier matchups against Denver and the Chargers are on the slate for the following two weeks. Evaluation – late-round flyer as a QB3 in redraft leagues, huge upside in 1 QB dynasty startups, draft between 15-20 in rookie only drafts, and 1.02 over the RBs in dynasty Superflex rookie drafts.
Justin Herbert, LA Chargers – Tyrod “Bridge 2.0” Taylor takes the field week 1 versus Cincy, followed by games against KC, Carolina, Tampa, the Saints, Jets, Dolphins, Jaguars, and Raiders before their bye in week 10. My guess is Herbert crosses over the water for that week 6 home game starting the softest three games on the schedule. Evaluation – late-round flyer as a QB3 in deep roster redraft leagues, draft as an eventual QB2 in 1 QB dynasty startups, and 20-25 in rookie only drafts. You can make a case for Herbert as the 1.03 in dynasty Superflex rookie drafts if you’re weak at QB, but he could also fall to the 11-13 rock bottom range. Scouts don’t seem to think his ceiling for stardom is as high as Tua’s, and neither do I sitting here in my makeshift home office scouring the FF sites.
The rest of the rookie QBs likely won’t have a significant role this season without an injury, and I don’t see any fantasy value beyond these remaining three.
Jordan Love, Green Bay – Rodgers is entrenched for 2020, and maybe 2021 as well. I have Love tabbed as a mid-late second-rounder in dynasty Superflex rookie drafts, and pretty much unrosterable in all other formats.
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Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia – whatever value Taysom Hill has in your league, list Hurts one spot behind him on your rankers.
Jacob Eason, Indianapolis – worth noting he’s the only QB on the Colts roster signed beyond 2020. That doesn’t mean he’s going to be their starter in 2021, but he’s definitely rosterable. Go ahead and use one of those third-rounders in a dynasty Superflex rookie draft.
Good luck this season, and happy drafting!
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