There is nothing better than the fantasy playoffs. There’s also nothing more heart-wrenching than losing in the fantasy playoffs. Every start-sit decision is crucial. And you don’t want to look or feel dumb with your choices. This is your reminder to trust the process and go with the player with higher upside when you’re in doubt. Be willing to lose by a lot if it means you maximized your chances to win. Because it’s so very difficult and unlikely to win anyway. So, lean into upside and variance when you can.
Pass Rate Over Expected: Go for the W
The Lions and Eagles didn’t follow this advice in Week 14. Now mind you, they still lost by a lot. But they simultaneously didn’t maximize their chances to win. The Lions had a pass rate over expected (PROE) of -12.0% against the Bears. So, they passed 12% less than a typical team would given the situations they found themselves in. And on the surface that makes some sense. They were extremely efficient running the ball and inefficient passing. Goff was struggling as he seems to do often in outdoor, cold-weather games. But despite their rushing success, running the ball down in the second half helps to lock in a loss. You have to at least *try* to win the game and that’s only going to come via Goff’s arm. The Eagles similarly had a PROE of -8.7%.
In the fantasy playoffs, don’t be like the Lions or Eagles in Week 14. Don’t be afraid to make a wrong decision. Don’t anchor to a lineup that you don’t think is your best just because the alternative is perceived as riskier. There is ultimately only one winner in your league and unfortunately the odds are never in your favor at the beginning of the playoffs. Lean into upside and uncertainty and play to win the game!
Buccaneers: Rachaad White Volume King
One crazy exception to the above was the Buccaneers in Week 14. They had the fourth lowest PROE of any team this season against the Falcons. That is ironic because the 3rd and 5th lowest marks are held by the Falcons themselves. That was great news for Rachaad White who was given 20+ carries for the second consecutive week. I’ve brought up Rachaad White in previous articles because he’s just such an interesting player. He’s first among all RBs in ESPN Analytics’ receiver tracking metrics. But he’s been wildly inefficient running the ball, ranking in the bottom-5 in rushing yards over expected (RYOE) per attempt. He wasn’t good again last week, earning 1.2 yards per carry less than expected given the context around his carries. For fantasy football, though, it hardly matters as he easily is in a top-5 situation for RBs. He’s given massive volume running and earning massive volume in the pass game.
As a short aside, while the Buccaneers defense has been elite stopping the run, they’ve been inefficient against the pass. They continue to give up 100+ yard receiving games, including one to Drake London in Week 14. If you need a tie-breaker for one of your start-sit decisions, try to start your receivers against the Bucs. They get the Packers in Week 15, Jags in Week 16, and Saints in Week 17. That means wheels up for Chris Olave in the championship game.
Ravens: They Understood the Assignment
Now the Ravens played to win the game in Week 14. They had their second-highest PROE of the season at +5.8%. Lamar had his highest number of dropbacks and pass attempts of the year against the Rams, and also his highest average depth of target (aDoT). He actually had the most air yards of any QB in a game this season, narrowly edging out Joe Flacco (!) in Week 13. The graph below shows completion percentage over expected (CPOE) on the x-axis and air yards per attempt on the y-axis. Lamar is firmly in the top-right of the graph for the season, completing more passes than expected and throwing the ball deep down the field.
All of this is fantastic news for Zay Flowers and Odell Beckham. Against the Rams, Zay averaged 12.4 air yards per target. This is a strong step up from his season average of 8.7 and likely part of an effort to get Zay down the field with Mark Andrews sidelined. Odell had even deeper targets, averaging 21 air yards per target, which was 41% of the team’s total. Combine how Lamar’s playing, a potential shift in offensive tendencies, and an ideal fantasy schedule, I’m looking forward to playing these Ravens WRs in the fantasy playoffs.
Chiefs: Rashee Rice and RB Splits
It’s officially Rashee Rice celebration week. He ticked over 75% of the Chiefs’ offensive snaps for the first time in Week 14. We can finally stop worrying about his playing time. He now has at least nine targets and seven receptions in three consecutive weeks. He’s 24th in ESPN Analytics’ receiver tracking metric. We’ve got talent, volume, and an elite QB. Don’t overthink it; Rashee Rice is an every-week starter during the fantasy playoffs.
The Chiefs’ RB situation is a bit trickier. It was basically an even split in snap rate and routes between CEH and McKinnon in Week 14. CEH ended up with 11 carries to McKinnon’s 4, and also saw 4 targets to McKinnon’s 3. However, McKinnon out-snapped CEH 7 to 2 in the red zone. And that ultimately led to a TD for McKinnon and the better fantasy day. In matchups where the Chiefs are heavily favored, I’d imagine CEH continues to get more touches. And that should be the case for all of the fantasy playoffs. But I’m never going to recommend an inefficient player like CEH. I’m personally always opting for the upside play in these situations and to me that’s clearly Jerick McKinnon. If you’re playing him, you just have to hope the Chiefs’ opponents can keep the score close.
Jets: Breece Hall WR Targets
Speaking of RBs, have you looked at Breece Hall’s passing game involvement recently? He’s had at least eight (!) targets in three consecutive games. I’d be ecstatic about that if he was a WR on my team, let alone a RB. Now that’s only led to one massive fantasy day, which was last week where one of those targets resulted in a receiving TD. He’s obviously held back by the state of this Jets offense. I feel confident in saying they will not score 30 points again this season. He also gets an extremely tough matchup in fantasy championship week when the Jets take on the Browns. But you can certainly do worse than a very talented player getting this level of passing game involvement.
Bears: Relying on Fields
If you’re like me, you’ve been loving the Justin Fields rush attempt numbers in recent weeks. On the season, he has five games with double-digit rushing attempts; three of those have come in his last three games. Moreover, the Bears had their highest PROE of the season against the Lions, hitting a massive (for them) +6.3%. And given the two teams’ tendencies heading into the game, it was surprising that they massively exceeded their opponents’ PROE like I discussed earlier.
This is great news in fantasy for not just Fields but also DJ Moore. I’m relying on the pair to get me through the Scott Fish Bowl quarterfinals this week like I’m sure a lot of you are relying on them in the first round of the playoffs. Unfortunately for us, the Bears get the Browns’ elite defense in Week 15. I’m starting both of them anyway as I don’t have viable alternatives with anywhere near their upside. The good news is if we advance, the Bears get a much softer Arizona defense in Week 16.
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Bengals: They Can’t Keep Getting Away with This
With Joe Burrow and now with Jake Browning, the Bengals have earned a lot of passing yards on incredibly low aDoTs. Now some of that has been due to a very large number of pass attempts. From weeks 5 through 12, they only had one game with a PROE below +10.0%. But they’ve shifted toward the run in the past two weeks, with negative PROE marks in both games. In Week 14, Jake Browning had the second-lowest aDoT in the league at 4.9 yards per attempt. The two QBs surrounding him, Aidan O’Connell and Derek Carr, averaged 145 passing yards. Jake Browning had 275.
The difference is the yards after the catch (YAC) performance of the Bengals’ pass catchers. The three biggest plays for the Bengals passing game totaled 112 YAC. And that wasn’t all to Ja’Marr Chase as no Bengal finished the day with more than 4 targets and Chase only ended up with 29 receiving yards. It feels like the Bengals can’t keep getting away with this.
Texans: Injury Woes
After Tank Dell was put on IR following Week 13, both CJ Stroud and Nico Collins got hurt in Week 14. This has been a brutal string of offensive injuries for the Texans. As of writing this, I don’t know whether Stroud or Collins will play against the Titans. In a situation where Stroud clears concussion protocol but Collins’ calf injury keeps him out, then we have to look at the remaining Texans’ WRs.
I’m going to be honest. I don’t have a great read on Noah Brown. In his last four games, he’s had two games with over 150 receiving yards and two games with exactly 0 receiving yards. I have to assume his true performance level is somewhere in the middle but that’s a *massive* middle. I don’t think you can feel comfortable trusting him at this point in the fantasy playoffs with two consecutive duds. For deeper leagues, it’s at least worth looking at both Xavier Hutchinson and John Metchie.
Hutchinson played on 13 more snaps and ran seven more routes than Metchie in Week 14 and played more on the outside replacing Nico’s role. Meanwhile, Metchie moved into the slot more often than Hutchinson did. When the Texans play with 3 WRs, and assuming Collins is out, it will likely be Noah Brown, Robert Woods, and a combination of Hutchinson and Metchie. That combination makes it difficult to predict but I would lean toward Xavier Hutchinson based on last week’s usage. And again, this is really only for very deep leagues.
Young TE Appreciation
Prior to the season, the TE landscape seemed extremely dark. The old guard was changing out without proven, young production to replace it. We had a great TE class coming in, but there are no guarantees with prospects. Well, the young TEs have delivered. In addition to Kittle, Kelce, and Andrews, the top 10 of ESPN Analytics’ receiver tracking metrics is littered with youth. Trey McBride (2nd), Dalton Kincaid (5th), Jake Ferguson (8th), Michael Mayer (9th), and Sam LaPorta (10th) all have made the cut. Besides Mayer, they’ve all been crucial fantasy contributors this season. Even a player like Tucker Kraft had his best game of the season in Week 14 against the Giants. He looked a lot like Dallas Goedert to me on his way to four receptions and 64 receiving yards. And he was one of PFF’s top rated rookies of the week. We’re in good hands with the new batch of TEs that have entered the league.
Interception Model
Week 14 was an ok week for the interception model. Focusing on the sample where the model had the greatest confidence (+/- 5% from 50% odds), it correctly predicted whether a QB would throw an interception 67% of the time. Unfortunately, the two misses were listed on last week’s article in unders for Jordan Love and Gardner Minshew, both of whom threw an interception. This week, the model likes Nick Mullens (59%, assuming he starts) and Joe Flacco (59%) to throw an interception and Gardner Minshew (39%) and Geno Smith (40%) to avoid throwing interceptions. Have a great week everyone!
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