I’m excited for my weekly therapy session…I mean article on football. And as a manager of Drake London in many dynasty leagues, there’s no better place to start than with the Falcons.
Falcons Grounded
Who had more air yards in week 1; Desmond Ridder IN THE ENTIRE GAME or Josh Allen ON ONE PASS!?! Because I’m asking the question, the answer is obviously Josh Allen. One of Josh Allen’s passes went for 65 air yards, while the entirety of Desmond Ridder’s Week 1 passes totaled 58 air yards. Take a second to internalize that.
The primary reason for this is that half of the Falcons’ targets went to their RBs, which is wholly unsustainable. If you didn’t watch this Falcons offense, you’ll be excited to learn that Desmond Ridder and Drake London had the same number of targets. I’m not crying, YOU’RE crying! It just can’t be this bad all year, right? RIGHT?
Thursday Night Focus: Eagles RBs
The thing I’m most excited to see this Thursday Night is how the Eagles split their RB touches. Kenny Gainwell dominated both snaps and touches in Week 1, accounting for about 88% of RB carries. Unfortunately, he wasn’t particularly efficient on his attempts.
The graph below shows both rushing yards over expected (RYOE) and a measure of success rate from NFL Next Gen Stats. Kenny Gainwell was below expectation per attempt and had a success rate below 30%, putting him in the James Conner/Brian Robinson zone. That is definitely not where you want to be.
It’s a very small sample size and the entire Eagles offense was asleep in Week 1. Yet, Rashaad Penny has always been a RYOE darling, finishing first in the league in 2021 with 1.86 RYOE per attempt among RBs with at least 90 carries. I’m hoping we get to see Penny active at some point soon, especially with Gainwell now listed as out for Week 2 with an injury.
As an aside, I set the minimum number of carries to 13 for the graph because Breece Hall’s 8.14 RYOE/attempt on 10 carries made it difficult to see the other players. My goodness Breece Hall.
Chiefs WRs to Target
If I had to pick a WR to target going forward for the Chiefs, I’d pick Rashee Rice. I don’t feel particularly great about it though, as the answer could be “no one”. The biggest thing standing in Rice’s way is his small number of routes run. He ran only 11 routes in Week 1, about a third of MVS’ total. Having said that, he had an incredible 5 targets on those routes, good enough for a massive but unsustainable 45.5% targets per route run (TPRR) mark.
Skyy Moore, for example, earned only 4 targets on 28 routes. Kadarius Toney had a terrible game from a real-life perspective, but also ran 11 routes and earned 5 targets. The difference is that Kadarius Toney has consistently been used as a part-time/gadget player, while Rice has the unknown on his side. Toney also single-handedly lowered Mahomes’ EPA/dropback from 0.14 to -0.05 on that one “interception”. Both drops and interceptions are fluky, but that was so bad that it could influence coaching decisions.
Tua’s Middle of the Field Dominance
I wrote in last week’s article that Tua crushed defenses on passes in the middle of the field in 2022. His career EPA/dropback spiked throughout last season as a result. Yet, his efficiency started dropping closer to the end of the year. The two main theories were his unfortunate injuries and defenses forcing Tua to throw more to the boundaries, making the intermediate routes more difficult. The team that I called out having success with this strategy was the Chargers, the exact same team that the Dolphins played in Week 1 of this season.
As you can see from the graph below, Tua (top-right) crushed the Chargers on passes in the middle of the field in Week 1. All due credit to Tua for an insane week, as he had some beautiful throws in big-time moments. Yet, Mike McDaniel is also due some credit. I was wondering what the Dolphins’ counter-punch would be and it seems like it’s the use of a lot of out motions.
So, the WR doesn’t travel all the way across the field but changes his alignment on the same side of the field right before the snap. This created a lot of free releases by changing the look of the offense right before the snap. It turned the speed of Tyreek and Waddle into a weapon. If the Waddle manager in your league is worried about his 11.6% target share, I’d be buying to get a piece of this offense.
Love our content? Check out the GoingFor2 Live Podcast Network!
Donald Parham Endzone Threat
In that same game, I noticed some interesting use of Donald Parham by the Chargers. It seemed like Parham would pop out of nowhere when the Chargers were in the redzone and get a target. The numbers back this up. His average target occurred when the Chargers were on the Dolphins’ 19-yard line.
That was the shortest distance to go among players with at least three targets in the NFL in Week 1. The TE landscape was atrocious in Week 1 and TDs are always a particularly important element of TE fantasy scoring. Parham is a tricky bet since he only ran 14 routes in Week 1. Yet, the situations where he’s on the field are high-leverage plays that could net you a low-end TE1 finish if the Chargers offense smashes. Also, none of this is good news for Gerald Everett.
Green Zone Share by Position
Donald Parham’s use near the goal line comes with the additional context that TE opportunities near the endzone have declined in the past half-decade. The graph below shows the share of carries or targets by fantasy position with 5 or fewer yards to go for a touchdown (aka the green zone). You’ll notice that RB opportunities have also declined while the WR share has been stable (ignoring Week 1 2023 for now).
The big change is QB rushing eating into the share of RB carries and TE targets. As I mentioned last week, QB scrambles have been on the rise. From 2016 to 2022, QB scrambles increased from 5.0% to 6.3% of rushing attempts while gaining in efficiency. These trends highlight the fantasy offseason where QBs were being drafted earlier, RBs were being drafted later, and TEs are either elite or in a massive, indistinguishable tier.
Kendrick Bourne Supremacy
I’ll spare you having to read another Week 1 victory lap, but Aiyuk smashing for an 8/129/2 line was one of the most enjoyable moments of the week. Aiyuk flashed in the data from ESPN Analytics and their Receiver Tracking Metrics. Another potentially surprising player that flashed in the past was Kendrick Bourne. Bourne finished the 2021 season ranked third in their overall receiver rating among WRs. And last week he put up a 6/64/2 line.
He easily paced with Patriots with 72 snaps and 11 targets. He earned a 20.4% target share and 33% of the team’s air yards. He did, however, run 45 routes and so the receiving yards number is a bit low on that volume. Mac Jones also won’t lead the league in passing attempts every week. Yet, the trends toward more Patriots passing and Bourne’s Week 1 success are promising.
Justin Fields’ Sack Rate
Looking at the stats, Week 1 looks a bit promising for Fields’ ability to avoid sacks. He took four sacks (tied for fifth among QBs) on 37 attempts and 11 pressures. I mentioned last week that Fields has been last in the league among starting QBs for two consecutive seasons in the component of EPA derived from sacks. Yet, watching the game leaves you scratching your head a bit too often. I thought this tweet and corresponding video show an excellent example of this. Here’s hoping for improvement in Week 2.
YPRR Darlings
We’ve had a couple of WRs in recent years post incredibly efficient yards per route run (YPRR) marks on limited volume. Two notable examples that come to mind are Rashid Shaheed and Deonte Harty. I mentioned last week that the time is about up for one of these guys to hit in a big way. And Rashid Shaheed is off to a promising start for the year. In Week 1, he increased both his YPRR and (crucially) his target share, hitting a fantastic 3.60 and better 18.2%, respectively. Derek Carr finished Week 1 first in air yards per pass attempt. Things are looking up for Shaheed.
Kickers (Yes, Kicker Analysis)
If you’ve made it this far down, you’re a fantasy football sicko like I am. And nothing represents sicko behavior better than looking at kicker talent. Fantasy points from kickers are largely dependent on the context of their offensive environment. But don’t you want a kicker that is actually good when they’re called upon? I created a model that assigns the probability that a kicker will make a field goal based on a number of factors like kick distance, wind, and time left in the game.
The graph below shows the percentage of field goals made over/under the expected number on the x-axis and actual field goal percentage on the y-axis. So, players like Evan McPherson that skew towards the right of the graph look better in the model than their traditional field goal percentage would indicate. They’ve exceeded expectations when the full context of their kicks is considered. Also, Justin Tucker is simply amazing.
ATTN Dynasty Commissioners: Do you want to do something cool for your league? How about a 1-hour live show dedicated to YOUR league? Team-by-team breakdowns, rankings, and more. For details and to book a show, visit: GoingFor2.com/plp.
