A theme has naturally emerged in the last few weeks when deciding what topics I’d like to write about for this article. Last week it was pressure. This week we’ll look at outlier team and player statistics for the season. And whether these stats are likely to continue or revert for the rest of the season. Let’s start off with the Commanders and Lions, who are two ships *passing* in the night. See what I did there? Probably not yet, but you will!
That Eric Bieniemy Guy Likes to Pass
Sam Howell threw 51 times in the Commanders’ 20-point loss to the Bears last Thursday night. That compares to just six rushing attempts for Brian Robinson. Now it’s completely logical to pass a ton given the game script the Commanders were dealing with. Yet, even accounting for that game script, the Commanders had a pass rate of 17.9% over expectation (PROE) vs the Bears. That is the second-highest PROE of any game this season, behind only the Chargers in Week 3. The Commanders are now first in PROE on the season, just ahead of the…Kansas City Chiefs, Bieniemy’s previous team.
We (and by we, I mean I) weren’t sure how Eric Bieniemy would call plays for the Commanders. Was the Chiefs’ consistently high PROE a product of Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes, Bieniemy, or some combination of the three? Through five weeks, it seems we should be anticipating a similar strategy in Washington and so I’m buying that this PROE will remain high throughout the season. This is fantastic news for anyone catching passes in Washington. You could do worse than Logan Thomas or Curtis Samuel.
And I’m still buying in on Terry McLaurin. Targets have been less consolidated than anticipated, but McLaurin still has 29.2% of the team’s air yards according to Sports Info Solutions (SIS). After a 4-catch, 49-yard dud on national TV, the McLaurin manager in your league might be keen on selling. There are better days ahead for the WR15 in ESPN Analytics’ 2022 receiver score.
That Ben Johnson Guy is Protecting Goff
On the complete opposite end, the Lions have the second-lowest PROE on the season. Yet, they rank 23rd outside of the red zone. So, what does this mean? It means when the Lions get close to scoring, they’re passing the ball at a rate 21.5% below expectation. This is dead last in the league and it’s not even close. If they keep this pace up, they’ll have the lowest PROE in the red zone of any team since the Patriots in 2020. Yes, that’s even lower than the Falcons or Bears last year.
Unlike with the Commanders, I don’t think this is going to be sustained. Yes, I know Jamaal Williams scored a ton of rushing TDs for the Lions last year. But for context, the Lions’ PROE in the red zone last year was -3.4%, which is massively different than 2023 to date. The run-out has been great for David Montgomery so far. The Lions have had a historically low pass rate in the red zone, they’re top-10 in offensive efficiency, and they haven’t yet relied on their highly-drafted rookie RB. The RB position is mostly a wasteland but if you’re in a position where you can sell Montgomery, I’d consider it. But make sure you’re getting a ton of value back for the RB7 on the season.
Is It Zappe Time!?!
Speaking of things that are unlikely to sustain, the Patriots offense has the lowest EPA per play of any team over the last two seasons. Take a look at the graph below. It shows pass EPA on the x-axis and rush EPA on the y-axis. The Patriots are exactly where you don’t want to be, which is in the bottom-left corner. Mac Jones keeps getting benched in blowout losses. Could we see him get benched before the Patriots are already down by 34 points?
Among full-time starters, Mac Jones is in the bottom six in completion percentage over expectation (CPOE) according to Next Gen Stats. The blame can’t solely be placed on Jones’ shoulders, but he hasn’t been helping. In a very small sample, Bailey Zappe was 13th in EPA per dropback among QBs with at least two starts in 2022. That would be a night-and-day improvement compared to their current level of play. Given how much Zappe I have in superflex dynasty leagues, I’m not sure if the loudest screams from Texas would be from me or the Zappe family if he gets inserted into the starting lineup.
Consolidated Targets
It feels like we’re seeing more massive target games for receivers this year and the numbers back this up. We’ve already seen three games where a receiver has earned 20 targets, not including a 19-target game from Ja’Marr Chase in Week 5. We didn’t see a single 20-target game in all of 2022. Similarly, among players with at least 100 snaps through Week 5 of last season, Drake London led the way with a 35% targets per route run (TPRR) mark. Through Week 5 of this year, 35% would be good enough for 14th place. I’m seeing parallels between the QB landscape last year and the receiver landscape this year. Where the top QBs last year separated themselves so completely from the rest of the field that you really needed one of them to win a championship. It might be time to pay the iron price and get a Chase, AJ Brown, or Diggs.
Breece Hall: Original Graph Breaker
While the Jets won in Week 5, Breece Hall was really their only bright spot on offense. He finished the game with 177 rushing yards on 22 carries, good enough for 8.0 yards per attempt. The graph below shows rushing yards over expected (RYOE) per attempt on the x-axis and Next Gen Stats’ version of success rate on the y-axis. Among players with at least 40 attempts, Breece Hall’s RYOE/attempt is more than double second place (don’t worry, I’ll get to De’Von Achane next). Hall hit season highs in snaps, rush share, and target share in Week 5 after his coach announced he was no longer on a pitch count. Yes, I’m terrified of this offense. But Breece Hall is a stud and he’s fully back. Keep betting on the talent.
Panthers Run Defense: About to be Gashed
The graph below shows defensive pass EPA on the x-axis and defensive rush EPA on the y-axis. You’ll find the Panthers at the very top of the graph, meaning they are dead-last in rush EPA given up to opposing offenses. Unfortunately for the Panthers, they face the Miami Dolphins in Week 6. The Dolphins lead the entire league in rush EPA per play. It’s regrettable that we’re likely to miss the Dolphins’ electric rookie De’Von Achane this week. I set the minimum number of rush attempts to 40 in the graph above because including Achane makes it too difficult to see the other names. His 6.74 RYOE/attempt is more than double Breece Hall’s. With Achane most likely missing this week, please find a way to get Raheem Mostert on your team.
Dak Prescott: Collective Breath
Even as an Eagles fan, I’ve never understood the hate that Dak gets. Yes, he had a bad game in a blowout loss to the 49ers in primetime. That game included 3 interceptions, some of which were ugly. Yet, most of his worst plays came when the Cowboys’ win probability was basically zero. Dak’s average depth of target was also much higher in this game relative to the rest of the season. He hit 11.0 air yards per attempt in Week 5 compared to a 6.2 average this year. He and the Cowboys were obviously pressing to get back in a game where they were being blown out. That makes sense!
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Still, his turnover-worthy play rate according to PFF is below average on the season, falling below players like Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen. There are better, more normal days ahead for the Cowboys, who have been involved in a lot of blowouts this season. Their odd game scripts make CeeDee Lamb an obvious buy-candidate. Let’s all just take a collective breath with Dak.
Ravens: Bird Droppings
The Ravens offense hasn’t lived up to pre-season expectations yet. The drops have felt particularly egregious in recent weeks. Ravens pass catchers have the 4th highest average drop rate in 2023 according to PFF. Similarly, they have the 7th lowest average PFF drop grade. Drops are fluky and so there will be better days ahead for this Ravens offense. And even with the drops, Lamar is in the top third of the league in CPOE.
Unfortunately, besides Zay Flowers, Ravens WRs are tough to rely on. Both Odell Beckham and Rashod Bateman are struggling to get on the field with injuries. All of this adds up to being extremely bullish on Mark Andrews for the rest of the year. He’s one of the receivers with a 35% TPRR rate on the season. Besides the two touchdowns he scored in Week 4, he’s been a bit disappointing so far in fantasy. That should change with the added plus that the Ravens will have to keep pace with the Miami Dolphins in championship week (Week 17). Go get Mark Andrews; buy high if you have to.
Fields Designed Runs: We’ve Seen This Before
The Chicago Bears’ offense has looked a lot better in the last two weeks. To me, a part of that is the number of designed runs for Justin Fields. From Weeks 1 through 6 in 2022, Justin Fields averaged about 3 designed runs per game. That number jumped to almost 8 for the rest of 2022, aligning with a sharp improvement in the Bears’ offense. From Weeks 1 through 3 this year, Justin Fields averaged 4 designed runs per game. We got 10 designed runs in Week 5. I have to hope the Bears’ coaching staff sees this connection as well and the increase wasn’t due solely to RB injuries. Let Fields get into space and use his legs. Good things tend to happen.
Steelers RBs: Just Say No
I was high on Jaylen Warren coming into the season. The bet was the Steelers offense would improve and Warren would eventually outplay Najee enough that he’d have to be the lead back. That bet hasn’t paid off this year. I don’t like talking poorly about Jaylen Warren. His hurdle, spin, and stiff-arm play against the Ravens was extremely fun to watch.
But on the season, the advanced rushing stats haven’t differentiated Najee and Warren. Warren didn’t have enough attempts to qualify for the RYOE graph above, but if he did, he’d basically be on top of Najee. I don’t want pieces of this offense (besides a bet on Diontae) and I don’t think the Steelers will wake up one morning and decide that Warren is their starting RB. It’s similar to the RB situation in Carolina. I don’t want pieces of that offense (besides Thielen strangely enough) and I don’t think the Panthers will wake up one morning and decide Chuba Hubbard should be their starter. Just say no to these RBs.
Bonus: Tough Week for the Interception Model
I mentioned last week that I’ve been working on a model to predict interceptions. And then using that to make some prop bets on Underdog. The model was right about 59% of the time in the weeks leading up to releasing it publicly, which is good enough to be profitable. So, what happens the first week I share the results; the model gets it right 30% of the time. Ouch. Here’s hoping for a better Week 6. My favorite players to throw an interception in Week 6 are Russell Wilson, Bryce Young, and Justin Fields. My favorite players to avoid throwing an interception in Week 6 are Jalen Hurts, Dak Prescott, and Tua Tagovailoa.
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