These WRs are Way Overpriced in Fantasy (Part 1)

With the NFL free agency in full swing and the 2023 Draft on the horizon, it’s time to start preparing for your fantasy drafts! Today, I am beginning a new series to let you know which skill position players you should be targeting, and which you should be fading… beginning with wide receivers to pass on. Whether you play in redraft leagues and you’re doing mock drafts, or you’re playing bestball right now, this series will help! All ADPs (Average Draft Position) are courtesy of Underdog Fantasy.

Christian Watson (ADP 44.5, WR22):

Christian Watson was a popular rookie breakout pick last season due to his landing spot in Green Bay, pairing him with Aaron Rodgers. The 23-year-old Watson finished third in his rookie class in half-PPR scoring, trailing Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson. Watson had a respectable fantasy finish as the WR35, but keep in mind Watson’s 7 TDs came in a 4 game stretch. Across his other 10 games, Watson recorded 26 receptions for 298 receiving yards and 0 receiving TDs.

Currently, on Underdog Fantasy, Watson is being drafted as the WR22. All the news is indicating that the New York Jets will be trading for Aaron Rodgers any day now. That leaves Watson with Jordan Love as his quarterback this season. For a player whose fantasy production primarily came through touchdowns (typically a less predictive stat year over year unlike yards) last season, and who is also getting a downgrade at QB, I would not draft Christian Watson at his current ADP.

I prefer WRs such as DJ Moore (ADP 41.2, WR21) or Jerry Jeudy (ADP 44.6, WR23) who are around Watson’s ADP. For bestball drafters, I understand drafting him just to get some exposure. But, I will have very little Christian Watson in bestball this season unless his ADP drops substantially. As for redraft players, I would pass if Watson’s ADP is anywhere near this by the time of your draft.

Calvin Ridley (ADP 37.4, WR19):

Full transparency… this pick could completely backfire on me. There are realistic scenarios where Ridley booms or busts at this ADP. So perhaps it is justified, but I am going to tell you why I think Ridley is going too high here.

Back in the 2020 season, Calvin Ridley finished as the WR4 in Half PPR scoring… extremely impressive. But, he hasn’t played a snap since Week 7 in 2021. While his 2020 season was impressive, Ridley played 5 games in 2021 putting up good but not great numbers. Across his five games, he recorded 31 catches for 281 yards and 2 touchdowns. I should note he averaged 10.4 targets per game during that stretch, which is promising.

My issue with Ridley is he is walking into a crowded WR room with a lot of competition for targets. Let’s compare his 2020 target competition to his 2023 target competition. In 2020, he competed with Julio Jones (who played 9 games in 2020), Russell Gage (WR37 in 2020), and Hayden Hurst (TE9 in 2020). In 2023, he will be competing with Christian Kirk (WR11 in 2022), Zay Jones (WR26 in 2022), and Evan Engram (TE6 in 2022).

There is a very real possibility that Ridley outperforms or even smashes his ADP this season. But not having played football since 2021, and walking into a team full of guys who have already built a strong rapport with Trevor Lawrence, I am hesitant to draft him at his current ADP. I like drafting Amari Cooper (ADP 35.7) and Mike Williams (ADP 40.1) instead of Ridley given their current ADPs.

Tune in next week here at Goingfor2.com for my next article in this series, where I tell you which wide receivers you should be targeting in your drafts! Thanks for reading!

ATTN Dynasty Commissioners: Do you want to do something cool for your league? How about a 1-hour live show dedicated to YOUR league? Team-by-team breakdowns, rankings, and more. For details and to book a show, visit: GoingFor2.com/plp.

The GoingFor2 Live Podcast