Once upon a time, wide receivers used to need two full seasons under their belts before they had their breakout season. But then, for about a three year period from 2014-to-2016, rookie WRs were stepping into fantasy stardom in their first year. Guys like Odell Beckham, Mike Evans, Michael Thomas and Amari Cooper were all fantasy relevant WRs in year one…and we got spoiled.
Over the last two seasons, while there has been a few guys that were fantasy relevant in year one, namely Juju Smith-Schuster and Calvin Ridely, there hasn’t been that sure-fire lock-him-in every week starter from the WR rookie class. The balance to the force has been restored and we can start looking at a few guys going into their third year with potential to breakout…
Zay Jones (BUF)
Jones has largely been a disappointment over his first two seasons with the Bills, but he started to show promise towards the end of the 2018 season — which, not coincidently, coincided with rookie QB Josh Allen showing signs to justify his first-round selection in the NFL Draft. Coming out of college, Jones was given the superlative of “Best Hands in Class” by ProFootballFocus.com — now entering his third season, he is on the verge of a breakout campaign that fantasy owners have long waited for.
Jones started to step up just before the Bills’ bye in Week 10 when he put up eight catches, 93 yards and one TD. From that week until the end of the season, Jones was the WR20 in points per game at 14.3 (PPR). His Week 17 game vs. Miami capped an impressive string of games for him as he put up six catches, 93 yards and two TDs in that final game.
Jones’ fate relies heavily upon the success of his QB, Josh Allen, who has been criticized for his accuracy. However, Jones has all the physical tools and the first-round pedigree to become a true No. 1 WR for the Buffalo Bills, and he is currently being “drafted” as the WR74 (PPR) and 198th pick overall. In other words, Jones is basically free and going undrafted in most standard sized leagues —  he is very low risk/high potential.
Dede Westbrook (JAX)
Westbrook was pegged as a potential breakout after his rookie season despite the fact that he was hurt for the first half of his inaugural season. He returned in Week 10, and through the end of the season he posted 27 receptions on 51 targets for 339 yards and one TD. Respectable numbers for a rookie WR who missed more than half a season.
He showed flashes of his potential in 2018, like Week 4 when he posted nine receptions for 130 yards or Week 13 when he had seven for 88 and one TD. Unfortunately, bad quarterback play and an inconsistent offense killed any fantasy value he may have had. Now entering 2019, he is back on the breakout radar with new free agent signee Nick Foles under center. Foles is a big upgrade over last year’s starter, Blake Bortles, who is now with the Rams.
Foles is by no means an elite level QB, but one thing he has been known for in his career is his deep ball, which fits Westbrook’s skill set of a field stretcher.
Trent Taylor (SF)
My homerism is taking over here, but hear me out before you dismiss this notion that Taylor could have a breakout season. First, Taylor had a better-than-average rookie season with 43 receptions on 60 targets, and, coming into 2018, was expected to be one of the top targets for QB Jimmy Garoppolo. However, a preseason injury and the subsequent season-ending injury to Garoppolo derailed any chance of that happening.
Secondly, 2017 also saw Taylor in the top 10 in receptions resulting in a first down. Let that sink in. Not top 10 among rookies, top 10 in the league. In fact, 63 percent of Taylor’s 43 receptions resulted in first downs — the highest such rate in the NFL that season.
Okay, all that is fine and good, but that was two seasons ago, the 49ers now have Dante Pettis, Deebo Samuels, George Kittle and Marquise Goodwin, how will Taylor get the target volume to be fantasy relevant? Here is my narrative…
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Taylor has been compared to Wes Welker and Julian Edelman —Â small slot receivers with short area quickness that have a knack for getting open. Welker and Edelman both thrived with the Patriots in that role. Well, Wes Welker is now the WR Coach in San Francisco and Garoppolo played in that Patriots system for a few years before coming to the bay area. It’s not that far-fetched to think Taylor can be Graoppolo’s “Julian Edelman” and be a valuable PPR receiver in this offense.
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