Dynasty fantasy football doesn’t need to be an overly complex game. My first offering was taking over an orphan team that was abandoned by a coworker…in a league with many coworkers. Much like a relationship, the rebound guy inevitably crosses paths with the spurned and jilted ex. He would frequently pop his head into my office or send me a late-night text and ask for updates on how I was treating her. I was committed to untangling the mess of cords that was laid at my feet. I would remain patient, fortify her worth with every decision, and bring excitement and spontaneity from my own imagination. We would be victorious together as one being.
There are many ways to succeed and fail in dynasty. The line is dangerously thin and often blurred. Risks must be taken, but not before they are carefully calculated. The wide receiver position offers a fertile plot of talented athletes from which to construct a formidable roster. I, being an agent of aggression and chaos, prefer to draft, trade, and acquire free agents solely on the upside of each respective player. For pass catchers, this is an effective method for condensing the deepest position in fantasy into a richer and more digestible stable of targets.
Some of the most explosive breakout performers at wide receiver originate from the most volatile and hazy receiving corps. Entering the 2021 season, I have identified three teams whose receiver groups are giving dynasty managers crippling anxiety. Using my “unchecked aggression” strategy, I will untangle the gold necklaces that many don’t have the patience for. Each of these teams has talent that could likely vault your squad from also-ran to hoisting the trophy. Let’s dig in.
New York Jets
General Manager Joe Douglas has actually done a masterful job re-shaping this roster from a laughingstock to a potential surprise contender. The last two draft classes were very fruitful when it comes to strengthening positions in dire need.
One of those selections is 2021 second round pick, Elijah Moore from Ole Miss. Moore seemingly does everything well and showcased his freakish athleticism at his pro day. His height and lack of reps on the outside are cause for some concern, but only if the Jets foresee him at the X or Z positions.
Moore is far and away the player on this team with the most value in dynasty. The LaFleur offense is derived from the Shanahan system, which is lethal with athletes like Moore taking on a role similar to Deebo Samuel or Brandon Aiyuk. He figures to line up at multiple positions and have specialty play packages and formations to get him in space. His impact should be immediate and spectacular, even if rookie quarterback Zach Wilson is experiencing growing pains.
Jamison Crowder is staying in town this season and is a more traditional slot receiver, who has shown plenty of merit when he can string healthy games together. He is of similar stature to Moore, but nowhere near as explosive after the catch. Crowder is a route-running technician with great hands that can be a sneaky PPR resource to flex as a short-term starter on a contending team. He is the type of receiver that can shorten the learning curve of a rookie quarterback.
Corey Davis was a high pick that never lived up to the alpha dog hype that followed him into the league. He is a physical presence with good measurables but has only recently flashed the health and ability to make plays and be trustworthy for fantasy managers. At his best, he can be a WR2, but those days have been few and far between. At this point, it is safe to say his quarterback situation has been downgraded, from Ryan Tannehill to Zach Wilson. I don’t have any qualms around rostering Davis, but it must be at a value, since he will be lobbying for attention among many receivers in a run-first offense.
Keelan Cole was another player who put together a respectable 2020 season, albeit in very streaky fashion. As the WR48 last season, at 28 years old, his value in dynasty is minimal. His role should be similar to Corey Davis, more of a Z receiver lined up outside and off the line of scrimmage. His one-year deal with the team gives him a good shot of carving out some kind of role, but not one I’m itching to have, even on my deepest teams.
Denzel Mims is the crux of all the hazy rhetoric surrounding Jets receivers. Mims showed exciting potential at times in the midst of an overall disappointing rookie season. Out with Adam Gase, in with Robert Saleh and Mike LaFleur, and the fit with the scheme doesn’t sit very flush. Bigger receivers who excel at contested catches and a more downfield route tree are not normally the type to stick in this playbook. Mims is young and extremely talented but might be trade bait if he doesn’t show the staff enough promise in his new role. I say, buy the dip on Mims while you still have uncertainty around where he fits in his second season. He is the type to explode out of nowhere once he finds his stride.
Overall, the Jets receivers should not be high on anyone’s dynasty rankings, save for Elijah Moore. This team figures to attack primarily through the zone running game and complex, low aDOT-high YAC route combos. They were rumored to have Moore as their 16th overall player in the draft and were ecstatic to see him available in the second round, so it shouldn’t be a surprise to see him featured as their primary playmaker right away. The rest of these guys lack the kind of upside that I look for in dynasty acquisitions but could serve as valuable depth if added for appropriate capital.
Detroit Lions
The Lions fanbase has been long tortured with a checkered past of failure and mediocrity. They have wasted the Hall of Fame careers of Barry Sanders and Calvin Johnson. There is, however, optimism that the Lions could soon be taking a sharp upward trajectory. The disastrous Matt Patricia regime is over, making way for Dan Campbell. He has already added excitement to the beginning of a rebuild, with his enthusiasm, grit, and bias towards a mentality of physical toughness.
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As far as personnel goes, the group of wide receivers is widely considered the least talented in the NFL. Kenny Golladay moved on to New York and Marvin Jones packed his bags for Jacksonville. Offensive coordinator Anthony Lynn is fresh off his firing as head coach of the Chargers, but still has a decent resume as an offensive coach.
Campbell and Lynn have been more adaptable to the talent of their team’s personnel than many have been led to believe. This bodes better for the running game than the passing attack. With a strong offensive line and a very talented running back, there is very little doubt that Detroit will emphasize controlling the line of scrimmage and imposing their will in that fashion. The question that everyone is asking is, “If the Lions are often falling behind in games, who will they count on in the passing game?” Let’s give these guys a look.
TJ Hockenson is the best pass catcher on this team now. He also figures to see a great deal of attention from new quarterback Jared Goff, who doesn’t exactly strike fear in defenses with his downfield passing. If Campbell and Lynn maintain their modus operandi of trying to get their best players in favorable matchups, we might see most of the big plays originating from Hockenson and D’Andre Swift. None of these wide receivers have consistently shown that they can be counted on to be part of the future of this team.
That is, except for rookie Amon-Ra St. Brown. The USC standout was selected in the fourth round of the draft and was the first skill position player taken under the regime of new general manager Brad Holmes. St. Brown figures to be the only wide receiver on this team that figures into the rebuilding plans. Although not an elite athlete, St. Brown is a worthy technician that is very competitive and has good intangibles. His upside is intriguing, in that Jared Goff is serviceable enough to support two good receivers. The landing spot for St. Brown could not have been better for him to showcase his abilities right away as a rookie.
If we’re digging deeper for upside on the Lions, we should pay some attention to last year’s late round selection, Quintez Cephus out of Wisconsin. Cephus also isn’t going to wow anyone with his measurables, but over his playing career has shown a penchant for making big plays. I am apprehensive to take a stab at Cephus, given the huge downgrade in deep ball accuracy from Matthew Stafford to Goff, but Cephus showed decent improvement down the stretch last season and could edge out some of the new acquisitions for a starting outside role.
One of those additions is former Jet, Breshad Perriman. At 27 years old, his positional skills still haven’t caught up to his elite athleticism. In spring practices, he was not as impressive as some of the other wide receivers vying for the starting job on the outside but could be an intriguing late dart throw in very deep leagues if he makes the team.
Perriman’s main competition for a spot on the team is the oft-injured Tyrell Williams. The former Charger and Raider has made his share of deep touchdown catches over the years, usually sprinkled in between a myriad of missed games. He was reportedly sharper in spring activities than Perriman was, but I don’t expect both to make the team. I’m avoiding Williams in dynasty, as a 29-year-old journeyman with no recent success to speak of.
It would be absolutely stunning if the Lions ended up in the top half of the league in passing. Jared Goff has not lived up to his number one pick and now figures to be the manager in a much less dynamic scheme. Hockenson has shown that he can be a top tight end, but there are plenty of reasons to believe that the future alpha receiver in Detroit isn’t on the team yet. Take a value flyer on the young, promising, and unproven St. Brown or even Cephus, but keep expectations low that their volume will be anything you can confidently start at any point.
Houston Texans
Perhaps the most dysfunctional franchise in the NFL will also give fantasy managers fits when it comes to rostering wide receivers. Hell, rostering anyone on this team carries a bucket of risk for a teaspoon of upside. Any possibility that I would pull the trigger on anyone on this offense in dynasty falls entirely on the future of Deshaun Watson. Since chances of him ever playing in Houston again are bleak, I have decided to forgo rostering anyone here at the wide receiver position. In any case, if a manager has more intestinal fortitude than I, here’s how it would break down.
Brandin Cooks is truly a special player. It is surprising that he is still only 27 years old, given that he has strung together five 1,000-yard seasons in the last six years. His speed and agility are still remarkable to this day and he was rejuvenated last season with Watson and the Texans, after a dreadful 2019. The bad news? I don’t necessarily believe there is such a thing as “injury prone,” but there is definitely such a worry as injury history. Concussions are more likely to recur if a player has a history of multiple incidents. Cooks is one blow to the head from possible retirement. I was glad he was able to stay healthy last season, but that risk is every bit as real as before.
Secondly, with Watson unlikely to be in Houston’s future, we are left with Tyrod Taylor and Stanford rookie, Davis Mills. Taylor has been up and down as a starter and backup for years now. He has never been an effective passer that can support a WR1 season, especially when the talent around him is not very good. Cooks’ upside is all-but-eliminated without Watson at the helm.
Beside Cooks, there isn’t much to see here. Nico Collins was drafted in the third round of the 2021 draft out of Michigan. A 2020 opt-out, he was momentarily impressive on a Wolverines offense that featured some of the worst quarterback play in college football. His size (6’4”-222) and speed (4.45-40) are impressive, but I saw plenty of flaws in his technique that could be concerning for a player entering the league after a year off. His value has also skyrocketed since the draft, with some managers picking him in the second round of rookie drafts.
That’s simply too rich for my blood at the moment. I will scoop him up if he gets off to a slow start, which is certainly in his range of outcomes, considering the team he plays for. He reminds me more of Breshad Perriman than anyone, so even the intrigue of immediate playing time is tempered by the likelihood that his flaws could be exacerbated by poor quarterback play.
To round out the rest of the receiver group, Houston went for the quantity-over-quality approach in the offseason. Randall Cobb is still here but is now 30 and will not make any of my dynasty rosters. Keke Coutee is an enigma. His good is great, and his bad is missing chunks of time with lower body injuries. He was also propped up by the superhero ball that Deshaun Watson plays. Donte Moncrief is still apparently in the league, but really isn’t a thing. This whole team is a dumpster fire fueled by a cascade of gasoline. If you can stomach it, go get Cooks or Collins. If not, breathe the clean air knowing there are 31 other teams with roster-worthy receivers.
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