There are very few things ever guaranteed leading into an NFL Draft. Thankfully, this year is different. Trevor Lawrence will go number one overall. Another near-guarantee is that the Detroit Lions will take a WR in the draft. The Lions hold the 7th and 41st overall picks, and there’s a strong consensus in the football world that new GM Brad Holmes will select a top-tier wide receiver.
WHY?
The ‘why’ in this scenario is pretty straightforward. Detroit needs a high-level WR because they have one of the worst receiving corps in the league. The current WR1 in the Motor City is Tyrell Williams. Williams didn’t play at all in 2020 due to a shoulder injury and is 29 years old. His best season was in 2016, and since then, he’s averaged 42 catches and 677 yds per year. It’s impressive how consistent he’s been since that career year, but those aren’t WR1 numbers.
Breshad Perriman and Quintez Cephus are expected to make up the rest of the receiving corps. Perriman is now on his 5th team in 6 seasons, and Cephus is a 2nd-year wide-out taken in the 5th round in 2020. The three WR’s recorded 50 receptions total last season, which is less than what 75 other WR’s recorded by themselves.
DEPARTURES
Detroit got to this point with their wide receivers because of all the departures in the off-season. Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones Jr., and Danny Amendola are all now gone. Jared Goff is also the new man under center after being traded for Matthew Stafford. Goff needs someone to throw to out wide.
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OPPORTUNITY
Since the top three wide receivers are gone, there’s a lot of room for opportunity. How much exactly? Over the last two seasons, Amendola, Jones, and Golladay combined for 520 targets and 331 receptions. In 2020 alone, when Golladay played just five games, the three combined for 216 targets and 142 receptions. That’s more than 48% of Stafford’s completions from last year. That is a massive void to overcome.
OFFENSIVE OUTLOOK
Former Chargers head coach Anthony Lynn is the new offensive coordinator in Detroit, and that could be a good thing for Goff and his pass-catchers. According to Sports Illustrated, here’s how the Chargers finished in passing yards in the league in Lynn’s four seasons as head coach:
- 2017: 1st
- 2018: 10th
- 2019: 6th
- 2020: 6th
While Lynn likes to establish the run, he isn’t afraid to air it out, and he was doing so with an aging Phillip Rivers and a rookie quarterback. Now he gets Goff, who could be on a revenge tour after getting kicked out of LA.
Jared Goff
Speaking of Goff, he doesn’t scare me. He had a rough 2020, but didn’t we all? For real though, before last season, Goff was able to produce for his receivers. In 2018, Robert Woods finished as WR11, and Brandin Cooks finished as WR13 in PPR formats. Then, in 2019, Goff did it again. Cooper Kupp finished as WR4, and Woods finished as WR14. No other team had two receivers finish in the Top 15 both those years. Even with Goff’s struggles in 2020, Robert Woods had a 3rd-straight Top 15 finish (WR14). Goff now needs a standout receiver to help elevate his game as Woods, Kupp & Cooks did in LA.
BEST FITS: 1st Round
Ja’Marr Chase: The Lions will be looking for an alpha-male WR in the draft. There are a few who could be there at the 7th pick. If Ja’Marr Chase somehow falls to Detroit, that would be an absolute slam-dunk. Chase has an extraordinary catch radius of 10.31, which is in the 94th percentile. He can make up for Goff’s mistakes and his 22nd best accuracy rating.
Embed from Getty ImagesJaylen Waddle: Jaylen Waddle seems to be the most likely pick for Detroit, and for a good reason. He is an electric player. In his six games in 2020, he posted an incredible 87.5% catch rate. Waddle is explosive & strong. Former NFL executive Mike Tannenbaum even said of Waddle, “I think about Tyreek Hill’s speed with world-class toughness.” We all know the new Lions Head Coach, Dan Campbell, values toughness.
Embed from Getty ImagesOther 1st Round Fits:
Rashod Bateman
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Terrace Marshall
BEST FITS: 2nd Round
Nico Collins: Want to build hype going into a season? Draft the local guy. Nico Collins isn’t just a Michigan product; he’s also a next-level talent. His size is impressive, standing at 6′ 4″ and weighing 215 lbs. It is a bit concerning that Collins’ catch rate dropped nearly 17% from 2018 to 2019, but he did post an impressive 19.7 yards per reception (92nd percentile). Collins also has a slightly higher prospect grade than Rashod Bateman at 6.28 vs. 6.27.
Embed from Getty ImagesOther 2nd Round Fits:
Kadarius Toney
Tylan Wallace
** The Lions selected USC WR Amon-Ra St. Brown in the 4th Round of the draft. The evaluation above still applies. Ignore the “Best Fits.” I was wrong.**
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