The 2019 NFL season is almost underway which means it’s Draft SZN! To help you prepare for your upcoming season-long drafts, I’ve put together a cheat sheet of rankings and player analysis on the top players at each position with a focus on PPR formats. Check it out here.
And to help you identify the game-changers who have the potential to win you leagues, I will continue to “Unlock the Chalk” so you can get an edge over your opponents. These players are my favorite chalk plays that will return immense value for where they are being drafted and I’d even take them a few picks (or even a full round) earlier than where they are typically going in season-long drafts. In fact, as you will see I am generally much higher than the Fantasy Pros Expert Consensus Rankings.
Nick Chubb (+5 vs. ECR) can be had at the round 1/2 turn and will be a strong candidate to outproduce his draft position, especially with Duke Johnson being traded and Kareem Hunt suspended for the first 8 games of the season. Chubb has also flashed an improvement in his pass-catching abilities which would vault him into elite territory. Last season, Chubb produced over 5 yards per carry (192 carries for 996 yards). If we factor in a little regression and project Chubb at 4.5 YPC with 285 carries, he should produce almost 1,300 rushing yards. I am also projecting Chubb to catch 30 passes for 250 receiving yards. And the fact that the addition of Odell Beckham will give the Browns more scoring opportunities, Chubb could be in line for double-digit TDs. By the time Hunt returns, Chubb may very well have put any questions about a timeshare to rest.
Kerryon Johnson (+11 vs. ECR) is primed for a true breakout in his second season and I’m here for it. The Lions let go of Theo Riddick and there has been offseason speculation that Kerryon could catch 60 balls this season. Kerryon will likely get more than enough volume (around 250 carries) to put up over 1,000 rushing yards and if he catches 50 balls, he’s in low-end RB1 territory as long as he punches in a few scores. I’m not buying the speculation that C.J. Anderson is an actual threat to Kerryon’s ceiling. For a player available in the third round with that type of potential, he would be a league winner.
Marlon Mack (+10 vs. ECR) finished as a mid-range RB2 last season even though he only played in 12 games. Imagine what he can do in a full season with an improved Colts offense and more scoring chances. There are 2 knocks against Mack: injury proneness and lack of receiving ability. But he also had 3 games with at least 25 carries. As a matter of fact, Mack was given 20+ touches more often than any running back outside of Zeke in 2018. The Colts should be in several games where they have a comfortable lead (thanks to Luck), which means they will likely be grinding down the clock. Plus, there aren’t many running backs who can be counted on for 20+ carries on any given Sunday in rounds 3-4.
D.J. Moore (+10 vs. ECR) can be considered to be on the cusp of a huge breakout given that his metrics as a 21-year-old WR placed him in an elite cohort : 100% of the WRs in this cohort have put up a top 20 PPR season, 84.6% have put up a top 12 season and 38.5% had at least one top 5 season (H/T: Curtis Patrick of Roto Viz). Essentially, this means that D.J. Moore is a lock to be at least a WR2 at some point in his career and 2019 could very well be the beginning of his meteoric rise. Cam Newton hasn’t been known to support more than one solid WR season (in terms of fantasy production) and while many pundits consider Curtis Samuel to be a cheaper and better value, Moore has the metrics and production profile to be an elite WR.
O.J. Howard (+16 vs. ECR) should have a sizeable increase in volume with the offseason departures of Adam Humphries and Desean Jackson, even if teammate Chris Godwin gobbles up a decent share. Over 220 targets have been vacated and while Todd Monken has left, enter Bruce Arians who is another master of the air raid offense. Of course, it will be argued that Arians’ tight end usage leaves something to be desired but Arians has already stated that he’s never had a player like Howard at the position. I’ve never been one to appeal to tradition, especially if the personnel is different (see: Miles Sanders). Howard posted a TE14 season while playing in only 10 games. Tampa is going to be behind a lot, especially in the NFC South, and their running game is mediocre at best. This means the Bucs will be throwing a lot. As long as he’s healthy, I expect a TE5 or better season from O.J.
Evan Engram (+19 vs. ECR) is another tight end that I am quite higher than ECR. Golden Tate is suspended for the first 4 games, Sterling Shepard is recovering for an offseason injury to his thumb which leaves no one of significance outside of Saquon to help on offense (sorry, Darius Slayton and Cody Latimer). Then you factor in the departure of Odell Beckham and there is going to be quite a bit of vacated targets, especially in the first quarter of the season. Even when Shepard and Tate return, Engram has been a monster when Beckham was not in action. Just like Howard, Evan Engram is another strong candidate to be a top 5 tight end this season.
Christian Kirk (+25 vs. ECR) was teammates with rookie Kyler Murray back at Texas Tech so if we’re all ready for a Murray breakout then Kirk would be the prime beneficiary. Granted, future HOFer Larry Fitzgerald is returning for another season, Kirk is the one who is explosive and tailor-made for a Kliff Kingsbury offense. The Cardinals may have drafted a bunch of receivers but we know that it takes some time for rookie WRs to blossom (just like Kirk flashed last season but didn’t fully mature into a star). Kirk was primed for a breakout in 2019 before Arizona selected Kyler Murray and now it’s pretty much set in stone.
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Miles Sanders (+28 vs. ECR) is another potential RB league winner. I won’t dispute that he will likely share the load with pedestrian Jordan Howard to start the season, but cream rises to the top and it would be foolish for the Eagles to not give their 2nd round pick an opportunity to show what he’s truly capable of. Once Sanders proves he deserves a bell-cow role, he will win leagues for his owners. I’m gladly taking him in the 6th round. Those who say that Doug Pederson has always used an RBBC so we should expect one in 2019 are just fooling themselves. When did Pederson have an all-around back like Sanders? It has been said (by wise men/women) that RBBC is not a religion but is used due to necessity. Sanders eliminates the need to use an RBBC and he will prove it soon enough. I’ve planted my flag on Sanders in dynasty and I am willing to do the same in redraft.
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