Egads! We are halfway through the fantasy season and have discovered that C.J. Stroud is Smash and Zay Flowers is Trash. Adam Thielen is a pleasant surprise, while the Chicago Bears are an unpleasant reality. But it is Week 10, so there is still time to make something of this fantasy season.
Four teams are on a bye this week: the Kansas City Chiefs, the Los Angeles Rams, the Miami Dolphins, and the Philadelphia Eagles. There will definitely be options you didn’t think were possible at the beginning of the season. The three cash quarterbacks, Patrick Mahomes, Tua Tagovailoa, and Jalen Hurts, are unavailable this week. So, let’s sort this out, shall we? But before we do, let’s consider some prop bets for Week 10.
Smash Plays
QB, Gardner Minshew, Indianapolis Colts -2.0 @ New England Patriots 43.5 o/u
This game is in Germany. It is a Smash for many reasons. The first of the two reasons is the game is in Germany. It will be the only game in front of millions of viewers, making it prime for Minshew time. You know that game where he throws for 300-plus yards, has multiple touchdowns (probably runs one in also) passes, and we forgive the two interceptions. We forgive because he just surpassed his QB25 status and has doubled his 12.1 fantasy points per game average.
It is possible because the New England Patriots aren’t your daddy’s Patriots. The Patriots are giving up 246.4 passing yards a game. Opposing quarterbacks averaged 17.4 fantasy points on their way to averaging 1.3 touchdowns a game.
In the last three games, the Patriots have allowed Sam Howell 18.7 fantasy points, Tua Tagovailoa 22.8, and Jalen Hurts 24.3.
Minshew Mania in German is Minshew-Manie almost the same, and I expect the same manic results.
RB, Brian Robinson, Washington Commanders @ Seattle Seahawks -6.5, 43.5
Several factors make this a complicated prognostication. One of the game scripts predicts Washington to be playing from behind, which would necessitate a passing game, which Washington has been more than happy to oblige (more on that later). And Robinson isn’t exactly lighting up the fantasy boards. In standard leagues, he is RB8, buoyed by the 26.9 fantasy points he got in Week 2. Since then, Robinson has scored double-digit fantasy points three times (and none above 15). He hasn’t rushed for more than 90 yards all season. Your fantasy hopes have relied upon him getting into the end zone. The end zone is where hope lies.
Last week, undrafted rookie Keaton Mitchell (right) torched the Seahawks for 138 rushing yards on nine attempts. Mitchell had 15.3 yards per carry on his way to the end zone. The week before Cleveland Brown’s man off the street, Kareem Hunt had 55 rushing yards and a touchdown. Even quarterback Joshua Dobbs ran in for a touchdown against the Seahawks.
Robinson has 18 rushing attempts inside the 20-yard line. He has converted five of those into touchdowns. The Seahawks defense is ranked 28th in red zone efficiency, although in their last three games, they have lowered their numbers from 66.67% to 45.45%.
WR, DeAndre Hopkins, Tennessee Titans @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers -1.0, 38.5 o/u
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This game is basically a pick ’em with a way too low predictive total. Two quarterback gunslingers against defenses that can be had through the air, what’s not to like?
Will Levis has been named the starter in Tennessee for the foreseeable future. In Levis’ two games as a starter, Hopkins has been his favorite target in the first game that amounted to six targets, four receptions, 128 yards, and three touchdowns. Last week, Hopkins had 11 targets four receptions for 60 yards.
Last week, Noah Brown, Dalton Schultz, and Tank Dell all finished the game with over 100 receiving yards. Rookie C.J. Stroud threw for 470, decimating the Buccaneers secondary. Brown averaged 25.5 yards per reception and was the leader with 153 receiving yards and one touchdown.
In their breakout game against the Atlanta Falcons, Hopkins averaged 32.0 yards per reception. I feel good about this Smash play.
TE, Dalton Schultz, Houston Texans @ Cincinnati Bengals -8.0, 46.5 o/u
The Bengals emerged from their bye week, allowing George Kittle 149 receiving yards on nine receptions. Last week, they let Dalton Kincaid collect 81 receiving yards on 10 receptions.
Last week, Schultz was targeted 11 times. He walked away from the game with 10 receptions, 130 yards and a touchdown. I won’t say lock, but it looks pretty good.
Cash Plays
QB, Sam Howell, Washington Commanders @ Seattle Seahawks -6.5, 45.5 o/u
The only reason this isn’t a Smash is that Robinson is a Smash, which now, in retrospect, could be reversed. Anyway, the Seahawks allow 254.8 passing yards, 1.1 average passing touchdowns per game, and 17.6 fantasy points to the quarterback position.
Howell has passed for 249 yards or more six times, including over 300 yards three times (could be four, but he had 299 against the Broncos…stupid Broncos).
Lamar Jackson only had 187 passing yards against the Seahawks before he was taken out in the fourth quarter when the Ravens were up 30-3 last week. In Week 8, Cleveland Browns’ backup quarterback P.J. Walker threw for 248 yards on 31 passing attempts against the Seahawks.
Howell hasn’t had less than 31 passing attempts twice this season. In this game, most likely playing from behind, look for Howell to surpass his league-leading average of 39.2 passing attempts per game.
The one blemish on this Cash play is Howell has been sacked a league-leading 44 times. It brings back terrifying memories of the Seahawks sacking Daniel Jones 10 times.
RB, Aaron Jones, Green Bay Packers @ Pittsburgh Steelers -3.0, 37.5 o/u
Jones is back and seemingly healthy. Last week against Aaron Donald and the Los Angeles Rams, Jones rushed 20 times for 73 yards. He also saw six targets for 26 receiving yards on four receptions.
The Steelers just surrendered 75 yards rushing and 27 receiving yards to Derrick Henry in Pittsburgh. The week before (again at home), they allowed Travis Etienne to run for 79 yards and to gather 70 receiving yards.
Jones is a Cash because of his health. If he is healthy and plays like we are used to seeing him play, he will Smash it.
WR, Marquise Brown, Arizona Cardinals v Atlanta Falcons -2.5, 41.5
Brown has only scored double-digit fantasy points three times this season. It has been the Brown-Trey McBride show in Arizona for the last three weeks at least.
- Week 7 @ Seattle: Brown has seven targets and three receptions.
McBride has six targets and three receptions.
- Week 8 v Baltimore: McBride 14 targets, 10 receptions
Brown has nine targets and six receptions.
- Week 9 @ Cleveland Brown eight targets, four receptions
McBride has five targets and three receptions.
The Falcons allow 10.7 receptions per game, 129.6 receiving yards, and 1.2 touchdowns per game to the wide receiver position. This is just a reminder that the Falcons are the team that gave Levis his coming-out party. There are rumors that Kyler Murray may be back. Now, that would be a coming-out party.
The Murray-Brown connection has played out in eight games. In those games, they have connected for 53 receptions, 565 yards, and three touchdowns.
This Cash is contingent on Murray being under center Sunday.
TE, Dalton Kincaid, Buffalo Bills -7.5 v Denver Broncos, 46.5 o/u
The Broncos have allowed tight ends an average of 71.5 yards and 8.5 fantasy points a game.
Kincaid is TE1 in Buffalo because Dawson Knox is on IR. So, last week, that was Kincaid with 11 targets, 10 receptions and 81 yards. As far as outcomes of probability go, this one has a pretty high ceiling and a relatively stable floor.
Trash Plays
QB, Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens -5.5 v Cleveland Browns, 38.5 o/u
Remember earlier when we discussed the “Trash” merely means to temper your expectations? Ta-da!
This is the second meeting between the two AFC North divisional foes. Last meeting, Jackson was 15 of 18, 186 passing yards and two touchdowns. He also had nine rushing attempts, 27 yards, and two rushing touchdowns.
Since then, the Browns have allowed quarterback an average of 167 passing yards and 11 rushing yards.
I hate divisional matchups. Temper your expectations.
RB, James Cook, Buffalo Bills -7.5 v Denver Broncos, 46.5 o/u
Although the Broncos’ stat sheet says that they have allowed 154.1 rushing yards this season, it also says that in the last three weeks, they have only allowed 98.3 rushing yards.
Add to that Cook has only 20, 67, and 52 rushing yards in his last two games, and it is a temper-your-expectations moment. P.S. The Bills have acquired Leonard Fournette’s services.
WR, Davante Adams, Las Vegas Raiders vs. New York Jets, 36.5 o/u
This is an expected matchup between Adams and Sauce Gardner. Gardner has five pass deflections, an 86.7 coverage grade, and a forced fumble.
The Jets only give up 10 receptions, 101.5 receiving yards, 0.1 touchdowns, and 9.6 fantasy points per game to the receiver position.
TE, Cade Otton Tampa Bay Buccaneers v Tennessee Titans, 38.5 o/u
Last week, Otton had six receptions, 70 receiving yards, and two touchdowns.
The Browns allowed 10 receptions, 101.5 receiving yards, 0.1 touchdowns, and 9.6 fantasy points to the tight end position. Temper your expectations.
“Be yourself, everyone else is already taken.”—Oscar Wilde
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