The Holiday season is here, and Week 13 brought me some early holiday joy. In my third weekly article, I had a very successful week. I went 4-1 in Week 13, with the Tennessee Titans being my only loss.
Week 14 is an interesting week, with many teams needing big wins to stay in the playoff race. Many games have spreads this week that make it difficult to pick the winners. Here are my best bets to win against the spread in Week 14.
My Week 14 Picks
Houston Texans vs. Chicago Bears (+1.5)
Both the Houston Texans and the Chicago Bears will try to bounce back from heartbreaking losses in Week 13. Because of injuries, the Texans have had to lean on David Johnson when healthy and Duke Johnson in the run game. However, that has not helped much since the Texans are ranked dead last in the NFL in rushing.
Quarterback Deshaun Watson has close to a third of the Texans total rushing yards this season and will attempt to continue against the Bears defense that’s ranked 17th against the run. Unfortunately for the Bears, they are not any better than the Texans on the ground. The Bears are ranked 31st in the NFL in rushing. David Montgomery is the Bear’s only real weapon on the ground. And he looks to exploit a Texans defense that is ranked 31st against the run. Montgomery will look to build on an impressive game against the Lions in Week 13.
Watson, in a loss, had a good game against the Colts in Week 13. He went 26-for-38 and 341 yards. The Texans are ranked 2nd in the NFL in Passing and will try to continue against the Bears pass defense that is ranked 17th in the NFL. With Will Fuller out due to suspension, Watson will look to Brandin Cooks, Keke Coutee, and tight ends Jordan Akins and Darren Fells. Watson will need to make few deep throws to keep the Bears off balance, and to do so, Watson will need Cooks and Coutee to step it up. For the Texans to win this game, I believe Bears Watson has to be the star quarterback that he can be. The Texans have a solidified starter at quarterback in Watson.
On the other hand, the Bears do not. Mitchell Trubisky is the starting quarterback for the second time this season and will try to bounce back from his Week 13 performance. Allen Robinson seems to do better with Trubsiky on the field than Nick Foles, but that doesn’t guarantee wins. The Bears have struggled overall through the air this season. Their passing game is currently ranked 23rd in the NFL. It’s good for Trubisky that they are facing a defense that is ranked 22nd against the pass. Besides Robinson, the Bears also have targets Darnell Mooney, Anthony Miller, and Jimmy Graham.
The Texans are 4-8 against the spread and 2-4 ATS on the road. The Bears are 5-7 against the spread and 2-4 ATS at home. Deshaun Watson was upset after Week 13, and I look for him to come back with a great game. The Texans defense has been porous at best and only has three interceptions this season so far. But with Trubisky at quarterback, I expect them to get at least one this week. The Bears will have to get the offense going to beat the Texans. Will Trubisky do enough at home to stop a six losing streak? MY PICK: Houston Texans -1.5.
New Orleans Saints vs. Philadelphia Eagles (+7)
The New Orleans Saints and Philadelphia Eagles seasons are going in completely different directions. The Saints have gone 3-0 since Drew Brees has been injured with Taysum Hill at quarterback. The Eagles, on the other hand, benched Carson Wentz and are starting Jalen Hurts for his first start in his NFL career. Taysum Hill is definitely not a passing quarterback. Against the Broncos, he threw for only 78 yards, but in his two games against the Falcons, Hill passed for an average of 232.5 yards. The Saints have Michael Thomas, Trequan Smith, and Jared Cook on the outside to catch passes from Hill. Thomas has had two 100 plus yard games since coming back from injury.
They also have Alvin Kamara to catch passes, but since Hill has been quarterback, Kamara has not been much of a factor. The Eagles have the 2nd ranked pass defense, so it will be difficult for Hill this week. Hurts in his first-ever start at quarterback against a passing defense that is ranked 28th in the NFL. To limit his mistakes, the Eagles should not ask him to pass a lot against the Saints. But when he does, he should lean on the tightened duo of Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert to be his main safety valves. When Hurts does need to throw to his receivers, he will have Jalen Reagor, Alshon Jeffrey, and Travis Fulgham to throw to. The main target lately has been Reagor, and I do not expect that to change.
The Saints have a one-two punch at running back with Kamara and Latavius Murray. But don’t forget that Hill runs the ball on designed plays more than most quarterbacks. With Hill as the quarterback, I expect the Saints to run the ball a lot this game. The Saints are the 7th ranked rushing offense in the NFL. The Eagles defense is ranked 25th against the run, and the Saints will look to exploit that on Sunday. I expect Murray and Kamara to both have good games this week. And when you add a running quarterback in Hill to that equation, it does not look good for the Eagles defense. So far this season, the Eagles are ranked 14th in rushing yards.
They are lead by the second year running back Miles Sanders. However, recently, Sanders has been very underwhelming, but I believe that correlates with the Eagles passing game’s struggles. In the past four games, Sanders has only rushed for 197 yards. The Saints are the 2nd ranked rushing defense in the NFL, and that does not bode well for the Eagles rushing attack hat also includes Boston Scott. Another added weapon is the fact that Hurts can also use his legs if the passing game breaks down
The Saints are7-5 against the spread and are 4-2 on the road. The Eagles are 4-8 against the spread and are 3-3 ATS at home. Normally the Eagles have a major home field advantage, but this year, that is not the case with playing in an empty stadium. This game could be a somewhat run heavy game with both defenses being ranked in the top 10 against the pass. With the Saints being ranked 4th overall in defense, the Eagles, with a rookie quarterback, could have a rough day. MY PICK: New Orleans Saints -7.
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Indianapolis Colts vs. Las Vegas Raiders (+3)
Both the Indianapolis Colts and the Las Vegas Raiders are coming off close wins in Week 13. The Colts rushed for 109 yards against the Texans and are now going against the Raiders, who have the 20th ranked rush defense. The Colts will look to lean on rookie Jonathan Taylor in the running game, and I expect him to have 15-20 carries. Taylor has finally started to show his potential lately and will definitely look to continue the upward trend. The Colts will also mix in Jordan Wilkins and Nyhiem Hines, especially in the passing game.
For the Raiders, the running game has been a big question mark lately. Josh Jacobs missed Week 13 against the Jets, and it definitely showed in the running game. The Raiders only had 72 rushing yards against a defense that is ranked 11th in the NFL. And unfortunately for the Raiders, they are playing the Colts defense that is ranked 7th in the NFL Coach Jon Gruden has said that he doesn’t expect Jacobs to be ready for Week 14, which means Devontae Booker will be the lead back. To have any chance in this crucial game, the Raiders must succeed on the ground this week.
Phillip Rivers will never be the quarterback that will throw for 350 plus yards, but that is not what the Colts need him to do. Rivers has done an outstanding job spreading the ball around, but you always need your goto guys to perform when needed. T.Y. Hilton was a disappointment early, but he has gone for 12 catches for 191 yards and 2 touchdowns in the last two games. Look for Hilton to build upon the last two weeks and be one of Rivers top targets against a Raiders pass defense that is only ranked 24th in the NFL. Rivers will also look to get rookie Michael Pittman Jr., Trey Burton, and Jack Doyle involved as well. In the red zone, look for Burton and Doyle to be top targets for Rivers. To win this game, Rivers needs to take advantage of this defense.
Derek Carr had a huge game last week, going 28-for-47 for 381 yards and 3 TD. But that was against the 31st ranked pass defense. The Colts are ranked 8th against the pass in the NFL. This means to me that it will be a lot tougher this week for Carr. If the Raiders have any success in the passing game, it will need to come from Henry Ruggs III and Nelson Agholar because against wide receivers; the Colts are ranked 20th in the NFL. But will the Raiders offensive line be able to give Carr enough time against the Colts pass rush?
The Colts are 7-5 against the spread and an impressive 4-2 ATS on the road. The Raiders are also 7-5 against the spread and are 3-2 ATS at home. Both teams need this game in the standings to stay on track in the AFC playoff race. With the Raiders more than likely relying on a wild card spot, they need the game a little more than the Colts. The Colts defense will look to shut down a very inconsistent Raiders offense, and I believe they will do so. Look for Rivers to do enough to get the road win. MY PICK: Indianapolis Colts -3. I would pick Colts up to -4.5.
Washington Football Team vs. San Francisco 49ers (-3)
In week 13, the Washington Football Team pulled off the season’s biggest upset beating the undefeated Steelers on the road. The San Francisco 49ers, unfortunately, lost on Monday Night Football against the Bills. Washington s run game has been lead all year by Antonio Gibson and J.D. McKissic. Unfortunately, Gibson is likely out Sunday, which means Peyton Barber will have to step up in his place.
The 49ers are the 13th ranked defense against the run. I expect Barber to be the main running back in the run game and McKissic in the passing game. Washington has started to play better lately in all phases of the offense, including the running game. The 49ers have the 18th ranked rushing offense but have also had a carousel of running backs due to injuries all season long. Raheem Mostert is no back in the starting lineup and looks to continue the season he was having before his injury. Jeff Wilson Jr. is currently in the role as the No. 2 running back. Washington will look to shut down the 49ers running game with the 10th ranked rush defense.
Washington has had their problems at quarterback this season, but it looks like the issue has been solved since Alex Smith has become the starter. Since Smith has become the starting quarterback, he has averaged 265 yards per game. Smith will never be a quarterback that will go and win you games week after week, but he won’t lose you games either. Besides McKissic, Washington also has wide receivers Terry Mclaurin and Cam Sims on the outside. But we also cant forget about tightened Logan Thomas, who is averaging 5.8 targets per game since Smith has been the starter.
But with the 49ers having the 2nd best defense against tight ends, Washington will look to McKissic to help alleviate the pressure from the 10th overall pass defense. Quarterback Jimmy Garrapallo is not expected to return anytime soon, which means Nick Mullens will be the starting quarterback again. As a starter this season, Mullens is averaging 275 yards per game. He also has had eight interceptions so far this season.
Mullins needs to get the ball out quickly, so he will look for his two quick wide receivers Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk, early and often. But Mullens will be going against a Washington team that’s is ranked 3rd against the pass. Much of that is in part to their loaded defensive line and their underrated secondary. The Washington Football Team is ranked 4th in sacks, and I expect them to put pressure on Mullens all game long.
Washington is 7-5 against the spread and 3-3 ATS on the road. The 49ersare 5-7 against the spread and are 1-5 ATS at home. Washington is starting to heat up as a team and hope to continue that this Sunday. With both defenses being strong, it will be up to whatever team’s offense shows up. I think Washington will have a better game on the defensive side of the ball than the 49ers. The 49ers will need both Mullens and Mostert to have good games to pull off the victory. This game will be close and, to me, is a toss up. MY PICK: Washington Football Team +3.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Buffalo Bills (-2)
The Pittsburgh Steelers are coming off their first loss of the season. Conversely, the Buffalo Bills are coming off a big win versus the 49ers on the road. The Steelers have not been rushing the ball effectively in recent weeks. The Steelers 29th ranked rushing offense will look to improve when they get James Conner back from the Covid-19 reserve list. In my opinion, they will not win if they rush the ball at least 20 times against the Bills. Against Washington, they only rushed the ball on 14 plays.
If they have an impressive game on the ground, it should be against a Bills defense that is ranked 24th against the run in the NFL. The Bills running back situation has gotten cloudy once again after Devin Singletary out carried Zach Moss by 15 carries. The Bills are only 23rd in the league in rushing and are going against the 6th ranked rushing defense. An X factor on the ground in this game will be the running ability of Josh Allen.
Ben Roethlisberger has to be successful for the Steelers to have any chance at victory. But I found an alarming statistic. Roethlisberger has averaged 47.5 pass attempts in the last five games. For Roethlisberger and the Steelers to have any chance of continued success, this must change, and the Steelers need to lower his attempts against the Bills. He has plenty of weapons at wide receivers.
JuJu Smith-Schuster, Diontae Johnson, and Chase Claypool will need to have success for the Steelers to win, but they need to be more balanced as an offense. Josh Alleen had a great game against the 49ers, including 4 touchdowns. Unfortunately for him, the Steelers have the top-ranked pass defense in the NFL. The Steelers are missing Devin Bush and Bud Dupree, who are two of their best defensive players. Allen will look to Stefon Diggs and Cole Beasley to have big games if the Bills want the win. Diggs has been attracting double teams all year, opening it up for wide receivers Gabriel Davis and Isiah Mckenzie.
The Steelers are 8-4 against the spread and 4-1 ATS on the road. The Bills are 7-5 against the spread and 4-2 ATS at home. The Steelers will need to play better on both sides of the all to win a primetime game on the road. And for the Bills, they will need to show up in primetime to knock off the top team in the AFC. To me, whatever quarterback has a better game will decide what team wins this game. My gut is telling me to put my money on Josh Allen. MY PICK: Buffalo Bills -2.
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