Welcome back!!! We’ve had a few days to get past the ugly game we had last. In all fairness, we had the right guys. We didn’t know that Akers was going to get the bell cow role. There isn’t any doubt that if we knew he would get that workload, we would’ve been all over Captain Akers.
That is the last game, and we knew it was going to be an ugly one. The good news is, this one should be different. There is a good possibility that we get a shoot-out. When we get a good game for the nightcap, it always makes a nice end to the day.
When it comes to showdown slates, you have to tell a story with your lineup. Whichever game script you like for that team, you need to make the story make sense for them. We all know lineup stacks and correlating our players is more popular than ever.
In this game, the Steelers vs. Bills, we should have some good offensive firepower. The Steelers are coming off the first loss of the season, while the Bills are off a two-game win streak and won five of their last six. The game scripts for both sides should be the passing games.
When it comes to the Steelers offense, they are struggling to get anything going on the ground. On the other hand, the Bills ground game hasn’t fared much better, and I don’t see it getting better against a top run defense.
Vegas Information: o/u 48.5 BUF -2
Injury News: Steelers- Joe Haden (out), Robert Spillane (out), Vince Williams (out), Bills- Jaquan Johnson (out)
The hits to the Steelers defense keeps coming. They lost Spillane last game. They were thin at MLB already since Spillane was going to be out, but losing Vince Williams to the covid list cripples them in the middle. Those injuries would hurt more against a good running offense. That is something to monitor. The loss of Haden will be hard to overcome in this one. It should be where the Bills passing attack takes advantage of the defense.
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Ben Roethlisberger– The last 6 out of 7 games, we’ve seen Ben throw at least 42 times per game. That is going to have to change for the Steelers to win come playoff time. This season, Ben has an average of 20 fantasy points per game. For the Steelers to get back on the winning track, they will need Ben at his best. The matchup against Buffalo’s passing defense is a good one and one that I expect to see Ben shine on primetime. If this game becomes a shoot-out, you will likely need Ben in your lineups. At this time, I expect to have a lot of Ben in the flex and captain.
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Diontae Johnson– Diontae is a walking target. In every game that he has played fully, he has at least ten targets in all but one. The Steelers have gone to the quick and short passing game. That is where Diontae has excelled at, outside of his drop issues lately. His matchup with Levi Wallace is one that he should be able to take advantage of.
I look for him to come up big and make up for his drop issues, and there is no better time to do so than primetime. He is the one Steelers receiver that can break 20 fantasy points without a touchdown each week. This is one of those weeks, I believe. So, load him in your lineups, and sit back and take your points from the receiver with the safest floor for the Steelers.
Eric Ebron– These last two games, Ebron has had some costly drops. That has always been an issue over his career and one that will continue to plague him. He needs to come up big when he is needed, and after the criticism lately, I look for him to continue his successful season.
In the last 6 out of 7 games, he has been over ten fantasy points, and we should see the same in this one. Every game, he presents a mismatch. That has given Ben reason to look his way often. With Jordan Reed scoring a TD last week, that made seven the Bills defense has given up to the TE position. This is another spot I will be high on.
James Conner– The Steelers’ run game has been non-existent. This is a spot they could have success on the ground, and one they can take advantage of. When the ground game is going, it helps keep the offense balanced and keeps your defense rested. The Steelers have to get it sorted out fast. A primetime game and a chance to make a statement would be the ideal spot.
The problem is, as a Steelers fan, I don’t know that I can trust it. The offensive line has the talent, and Conner is more than capable. The problem is the play calling, and until that gets better, we can expect to see the same. I will have some lineups with Conner on the off chance they do establish the run game. In this spot, you should temper expectations.
James Washington– He is my favorite cheap play on either side. There is a case to be made for more playing time for Washington. The team knows his work ethic and his heart, and Ben knows he catches anything thrown his way. The Steelers’ receivers are leading the league in drops, and the confidence Ben has in Washington could benefit him with playing time and targets. He gets enough playing time now that he could easily pay the salary off. If needing a salary saver, then look at Washington.
Embed from Getty ImagesJosh Allen– This season, Allen has been playing good football and a great fantasy quarterback. The issue is the matchup this week. Since week seven, the Steelers defense hasn’t allowed a QB to go over 20 fantasy points. They give up an average of 13.6 fantasy points per game to the QB position. That doesn’t make you feel good when it comes to paying the price for Allen.
I’m throwing those numbers out the window. Since I’m a Steelers fan, I know and can see the differences in the last couple of weeks. The injuries I mentioned earlier are piling up. In this matchup, the loss of Joe Haden will be apparent, and I expect the Bills to have some success attacking the spot. The chances of the Bills’ run game doing much is slim, so that will leave it to Allen to keep the Bills in the game. I expect he could be the first QB to score 20 or more on the defense since week seven.
Cole Beasley– The injury to Haden will cause a drop-off at CB on the outside. For that reason, I see the Steelers using safety help to that side. The injury could also cause one of the normal slot CB’s to shift outside. The slot is where the success against the defense can be made, with or without the shift to the outside. For the Bills’ offense, Beasley has been great in the slot, and over the last three games, he has averaged over nine targets per game.
With Gabriel Davis having back-to-back good games, the defense will have to account for him as well. In my opinion, that helps Beasley even more. The pressure the Steelers’ front seven brings will cause Allen to make quick throws, and just like the San Francisco game, Beasley should benefit the most from that.
Devin Singletary/Zack Moss– I’m off the run game for Buffalo. The more I look, the less I like it. There doesn’t seem to be a path to much success here. If you have to choose one, it would be Singletary. He could be utilized in the passing game and the back that can get outside, and Moss is more of a straight-line runner. When you attack this defense with the run game, the outside has a better chance of success. My exposure to Singletary will be minimal.
Stefon Diggs– It has been a great season for Diggs, and one where he’s been as consistent as they come. The chance for Diggs to have a big game has been helped by the loss of Haden. On a showdown slate, it’s hard to fade a guy like Diggs. He can break the slate at any time.
In this matchup, I don’t think he breaks the slate, but I do think he has a high chance of being in the optimal lineup. If the Steelers give safety help, it will be to the side Diggs is on and that could slow him down some. My issue is that I like Beasley better, and would rather take the salary savings. I’m not saying fade Diggs because I will have exposure equal to the field on him and I think that is the smart play with Diggs.
Other options to consider: Juju Smith-Schuster, Isaiah Mckenzie, Chris Boswell, Tyler Bass
May variance be on your side and the DFS gods with you!!!
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