The crazy year that we’ve had and all of the problems with this pandemic, the one good thing from it has been more showdown slates. There have been games on Tuesdays regularly and even a game on Wednesday afternoon. If you’re a football lover and a degenerate like me, that is GREAT news!!! Unfortunately, this game looks to be ugly for fantasy points. It is DFS. You have to be ready for something unexpected at all times. In full disclosure, I thought the Ravens game would be an ugly one. To my surprise, it turned out to be an interesting slate and one that most of the picks hit on again. I’m still not happy about the Dez Bryant situation. I wanted that Dez revenge game for cheap (haha). Par for the course, that stupid thing we call covid had to ruin his chance to break the slate.
When it comes to showdown slates, you have to tell a story with your lineup. Whichever game script you like for that team, you need to make the story make sense for them. We all know lineup stacks and correlating our players is more popular than ever. In this game, the Patriots vs. Rams, I mentioned it was looking ugly, and if I had to pick the story that makes sense to me right now, it would be the Rams passing game. The one thing I wish we could do would be playing a defensive player. I’ve been trying to find ways to put Aaron Donald in my lineup but having a hard time finding him in the player pool. Now with all joking aside, my favorite play in the game as of now is Cooper Kupp. There is injury news we need to monitor here too. The Patriots have two of their best three corners on the injury report. That would provide a boost to the Rams passing game if they’re out.
Vegas Information: o/u 45, LAR -5
Injury News: Patriots- Cam Newton (Q), Ryan Izzo (Q), J.J. Taylor (Q), Jakob Johnson (Q), Matthew Slater (Q), Shaq Mason (Q), Lawrence Guy (Q), Adam Butler (Q), Byron Cowart (Q), Ja’Whaun Bentley (Q), J.C. Jackson (Q), Jonathan Jones (Q), Kyle Dugger (Q), Nick Folk (Q), Rams- Matt Gay (Q)
All of the guys listed have been limited and are considered questionable.
Jared Goff– He’s always one of the hardest QB’s to predict for me. There are times Goff will look good, and there are times he looks bad. You never know when that’s going to be. He’s had five games of less than 15 fantasy points and five games of 20 or more fantasy points. That is the definition of hot and cold. In this one, the Patriots are a middle of the pack passing defense. In the last three games, they have given up an average of 230 passing yards per game. In the last three games, the Patriots’ run defense has given up an average of 87 yards per game. Their defense has stepped up recently. If they show up with a pass rush like last game, it could give Goff trouble. The injuries are big in this one. If the secondary is missing Jones, Jackson, and Dugger, it will give the Rams passing attack a boost. We will know ahead of time who will be out. With any of these guys out, the receivers will be able to get open more. From a raw points perspective, we’re likely playing Goff regardless of the injuries. For the Rams to win, Goff will need to be on top of his game.
Cooper Kupp– The WR/CB matchups show Jason McCourty to be on Kupp. That is contingent on Jonathan Jones being ruled out. If Jones is active, the matchup is not as good for Kupp. This year though, I have had success using slot receivers against the Patriots. In the last five games, Kupp has averaged 10.8 targets per game. The targets he’s consistently had coupled with the Patriots’ pass rush should keep his volume high again. The Rams use the pick your poison attack with Kupp and Robert Woods. One of the differences is that while one has a big game, the other still usually has an average game. Of the three Rams receivers, Kupp has the best matchup regardless of who’s in or out. This makes me lean to Kupp as the receiver to play. It’s looking like I will have a decent amount of Captain Kupp too.
Robert Woods– The matchup with Gillmore isn’t ideal, but the Rams try to move Woods around the formation. He runs some out of the slot. When in the slot, it’s not usual for Gillmore to follow him there. In the last three games, he has seen targets of 15, 12, and 11, so they’re trying to get him the ball. The Patriots’ defense is coming off a big shut out of the Chargers and riding some momentum coming into this game. Even with what can be a tough matchup, the Rams have a great offensive-minded coach. You have to believe Coach Sean McVay will find ways to get his playmakers the ball in space. The best thing for the receiving corps would be to get the run game going. The Rams like to use play-action, and it doesn’t work if the run game isn’t effective. I will be looking to build lineups with both receivers.
Josh Reynolds/Van Jefferson– They both have had some opportunities as of late. If the Patriots’ defense is healthy, their matchups are bad. The price on Reynolds is $5,600, and the price on Jefferson is $2,600. If you’re going to play one, I suggest Jefferson. You’re getting a $3,000 savings for what should be around the same snap and target volume. In my opinion, you need Reynolds to score. Without a touchdown, he’s likely not to hit value. So, take the savings in this spot. The price of Jefferson won’t hurt as much as Reynolds’ price if neither hit value.
Rams Runing Backs– Is it Akers, Henderson, or Brown?? One week it seems one of them will separate themselves from the pack, only to be trolled the next game. They use three backs, but really Brown is out of the picture now (I just jinxed it, Brown will have 3 carries and 3 TD’s now). The way DFS and the Rams offense is, I wouldn’t be surprised at all if that were to happen. In the last four games, Akers has had 45 carries to Henderson’s 28. There are games that the backs have been targeted in the passing game, but that isn’t consistent. When building lineups, it will be really contrarian to have both in the same lineup together, and even though I might be different, it wouldn’t be more than a couple of lineups. If you play multiple lineups, I will suggest splitting the exposure, but the one I will trust the most is Akers in this one.
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Cam Newton– The raw points perspective is the only reason to consider Cam. Even from the raw points stand-point, I’m not sure I like the play. In the last 3 out of 4 games, he has attempted 19 passes or less. The game manager role might be what’s best for the Patriots team, but it’s not what is best for our lineups. Cam has had at least nine rushing attempts in all but two games this year. Those attempts look nice on paper, but the reality is if he doesn’t score, then not much will come from those attempts. Since week one, he has rushed for more than 50 yards twice. While the attempts are nice, he’s not going to provide many points outside of finding the endzone. Cam has more rushing touchdown up-side than other QB’s, but this Rams defense is stout. At this point, I’m having a hard time seeing Cam hit value. The only way I see the Patriots winning is if the defense forces turnovers and gives the offense great field position. If you think the Rams can put up points in this, Cam could have some upside. That’s if he’s made to throw more than 20 times.
James White– This is my favorite play on the Patriots’ side. The run game isn’t going to be effective, so I think White will benefit from that. We know the receiving abilities he has. In this game, his pass-catching ability is going to be needed. I expect Aaron Donald and the Rams front four to create pressure and lead to quick passes. It might be a bold claim, but I think White is the highest scoring RB from either team. In the lineups I build, my go-to option for the Patriots’ offense will be White.
Jakobi Meyers– The hot streak has ended. There was a stretch where Meyers was the top option for the Patriots. He looked to be building chemistry with Cam. That has come to a screeching halt. In the last three games, he has averaged under seven fantasy points per game. This doesn’t seem like the get right week for Meyers or any of the receivers. His expected matchup is with Troy Hill, and it’s a negative one for Meyers. There isn’t much appeal to me in this spot for the passing game. I will have little exposure to the receivers and likely no more than one per lineup.
N’Keal Harry– His matchup will be mainly with Jalen Ramsey. With that being said, there isn’t any reason to say why that is a bad thing. We’ve seen what Ramsey has done to top receivers all year, and I don’t think Harry will be the one to break that cycle. His price is low, and that’s about the only good thing here if you take a shot on him.
Damiere Byrd– His price of $800 won’t hurt you. That is the one reason to consider him. He is a starter and could see at least five targets. If the game were to be a blow-out, he could get some added targets. It’s a lot easier to pay $800 and get nothing in return than to pay $6,800 and get nothing. Have I mentioned how much I don’t like the Patriots’ side of this one?? Someone has to do something for them, and outside of James White, my pick would be Byrd for no other reason than he doesn’t kill you in a bad game.
Rams Defense: I have established I don’t feel good about the Patriots offense as a whole. This makes me lean toward the Rams defense as a great play. In the last six games, they’ve averaged 10.6 fantasy points per game. There is a path to the defense outscoring the Patriots’ receivers in this one.
Patriots Defense: If you believe that we see the bad side of Goff, then the way the defense has played lately, they could be a solid value. It’s not out of the possibility to see Goff, Rams D, Patriots D, and the kickers together in the winning lineups.
This game could go way different than I’m expecting, but my guts saying this is a low-scoring game. When playing multiple lineups, I would make some for a shootout as well. As ugly as this game looks, there are a few ways it could become higher scoring than anticipated.
Other available options: Nick Folk, Matt Gay, Gerald Everett
May variance be on your side and the DFS gods with you!!!!
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