We’re back for another showdown!!! Unfortunately, this one looks to be more of a beatdown. Well, I take that back. We SHOULD have a beatdown, but we don’t know which Steelers team will show up. It really is frustrating being a Steelers fan so, I would imagine how the players feel.
With a win, the Steelers lock up the AFC North. If they lose, it will put them on a three-game losing streak. That will set up what could be a big game in week 17 for the Steelers. You have to think they have the motivation to handle business, so they’re able to rest some guys week 17 after a crazy schedule. For the Bengals, the loss of stud rookie QB Joe Burrow has crushed all offensive firepower they had. The team deserves credit though, they have continued to show heart and compete, despite their situation. That’s good and all, but in this matchup, it likely does nothing for fantasy appeal.
When it comes to showdown slates, you have to tell a story with your lineup. Whichever game script you like for that team, you need to make the story make sense for them. We all know lineup stacks and correlating our players is more popular than ever.
In this game, the Steelers vs. Bengals, it’s likely to be ugly and one-sided. It’s shaping up to be a slate full of ties and duplicate lineups. The most common way people will go to is the Steelers passing game. While I like the passing game, this could be a spot to zig with the run game when everyone zags with the passing game. Yes, I know that is hard to stomach because their run game is non-existent, but if there were ever the week to get it right and on track, it’s this one.
Vegas News: Pittsburgh -14.5, o/u 40.5
Injury News: Steelers- James Conner (Q), Kevin Dotson (Q), Bengals- Brandon Allen (D), Logan Wilson (D), Brandon Wilson (Q)
James Conner on the injury report??? There is a surprise (insert eye roll). The Steelers have been battling the war of attrition after 3 games in 12 days. That battle has led them to be thin on the offensive line at guard and linebacker.
Ben Roethlisberger– In the first matchup, he went for 32.3 fantasy points, with 4 TDs and 333 yards. He has had 7 games of over 40 pass attempts this season and has thrown at least 32 in all games, but 1. Those are career-high numbers, but they’re mainly short 3 to 5-yard attempts. At the beginning of the season, the offense looked good and was working well for the team, but now that teams have caught on, it has been easier to slow down. The other problem is, the Steelers receivers lead the league in drops by a large margin.
When an offense is designed to get 3 to 5-yards on first down with a short pass and a receiver drops the ball, it puts the offensive out of rhythm. If an offense designed around the quick passing game gets out of rhythm, it makes for more 3 and outs, and less time on the field. The offense and Ben get lucky here though, they have a spot to get it on track before a matchup, with the Colts. I have a feeling after a full week of rest, the Steelers come out and take their frustrations out on the Bengals.
It’s pretty likely that Ben is the highest or one of the highest scorers on the slate. There really aren’t many options and if you think the receivers have a good game, then Ben will have to have a good one as well. I’m still looking at it and with more time it could change, but right now it’s hard to see a situation where Ben isn’t one of my highest-owned guys. The Steelers are 11-4 on Monday Night Football since Ben has taken over, and Ben is 25-7 against the Bengals in his career. A Monday Night Football matchup against the Bengals makes it that much more likely that we see a big game from Ben.
Diontae Drop Johnson– Last week he had two drops and found out that Coach Tomlin wasn’t playing about catching the ball or getting replaced by guys who will catch the ball. He got benched the rest of the first half but he was able to get back on the field in the 2nd half. The reality is Johnson is the playmaker the Steelers offense needs and when he hasn’t had his drop issues going on, he has been electric. When he came back into the game, Ben was looking his way as he often does. That to me shows the confidence that Ben has in him and also that the team knows what he is capable of.
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Diontae has had double-digit targets in basically every game he has finished healthy. When he was benched last week, he still finished with 7 targets. The offense is desperate for a spark to get it going and he is the type of player that can provide the spark they need. With a full week of rest and time to get his frustrations out, I look for Diontae to have a bounce-back game, and outside of Ben, he will be the player I’m most heavy on.
Juju Smith Schuster– He has been averaging almost 8 targets per game and that has helped him stay somewhat consistent from a fantasy standpoint. The issue has been he hasn’t done much with those targets. He has been under 50 yards in seven games and has yet to have a 100-yard game.
When Ben has needed a critical play, he has looked toward Juju though. While the other receivers have had their drop issues, Ben knows that Juju is going to make those tough catches in those critical spots. He is the leader in a young receiver room and the Steelers need him to help set the example and get the younger guys back on track. I look for him to do that and on this slate, there aren’t many options on the other side, so I will try and find ways to get Juju in with the other two guys above him.
James Conner/Benny Snell– There isn’t much to be said about the ground game, because there hasn’t been a ground game. The Steelers need to get it going. When the teams know they don’t have to defend the run, they can sit in passing zones and put more coverage guys on the field to help in the passing game. I could be wrong but I heard a stat that blew my mind. It was said that the Steelers haven’t run one play-action pass. When I heard that I was stunned actually because I remember when Ben was able to live off those big play-action passes downfield.
For the Steelers to get play action and the ground game working efficiently, they’re going to have to commit to it and not abandon it immediately. We all know and their coaching staff knows that this game is the perfect spot to try and get that going. The problem is, even though we all know that it doesn’t mean they will actually do it.
I imagine most people are thinking the same way in regards to their run game. That could mean lower ownership. If Conner is healthy then play him in multiple lineups and some at Captain to get different. We need to monitor the injury report because if Conner is out, then play Snell in the same way. There is the chance they do get it going and if ownership is low on it, that could be the way to separate yourself from the field.
Jaylen Samuels– He is the passing game back and has been seeing more snaps lately, and I think it should continue this week. With his involvement in the passing game and the Steelers knack for getting it out quick, it makes Samuels my favorite salary saver on the board. I like this play whether Conner is in or out, but I LOVE it if Conner is out. When the reports come out, if Conner is inactive, I will be 100 percent on Samuels in my lineups at either Captain or flex.
Embed from Getty ImagesTyler Boyd– The loss of Joe Burrow, has killed the passing game, as expected. In this matchup, Boyd is the one I trust the most (I think). He has averaged almost 8 targets per game in the last 5 and working out of the slot, that’s where I would attack this Steelers defense. The Steelers will get pressure and cause quick throws and that should benefit Boyd.
Drew Sample– As I’ve said I don’t like much from the Bengals side, so this is a salary saver option that gets exposure to the Bengals. In the last four games, he has averaged around 7 fantasy points per game and had at least four targets per game. While that is nothing spectacular, it is enough for his price to help get value and able to afford some higher-priced options. That is all I’m looking to him for is a salary saver that could get 7-8 fantasy points with possibly more upside. He will benefit from the quick throws from the defensive pressure as well.
Trayveon Williams– The Bengals side of things, is where I’m going for the cheaper guys and Williams could be the best one. He received more work last week because of a rare Giovanni Bernard fumble. While the chances of Bernard fumbling like that again isn’t high, the likeliness that the Bengals want to get another long look at the young running back could be high. The matchup isn’t the best time for Williams to try and prove he can do it, but his price doesn’t kill you and makes him worth a punt.
Steelers Defense– The defense could be the best value on the board with the upside to be one of the highest scorers.
Favorite Captains- Ben Roethlisberger, Diontae Johnson, Steelers Defense
Cheap Captains– Jaylen Samuels, James Washington
Contrarian Captains with Upside– Chase Claypool, Eric Ebron
Other Options– Eric Ebron, AJ Green, James Washington
May variance be on your side and the DFS gods with you!!!
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