As mentioned in the week two article, “Break Out” or “Fake Out” will be a weekly review of this past weekend’s top performances by lesser owned players. I will gauge whether or not I see a potential repeat performance in coming weeks, “break out”, or a one hit wonder, “fake out”.
Before identifying the current week’s players, I will quickly review this past week’s players mentioned to see how well I did. My breakouts were Elijah Mitchell, Ty’son Williams, and Mike Williams. By contrast, my fake outs were Jared Goff, Mark Ingram, and Zach Pascal.
Weekly Results
I will quickly list the stats for each player below, and then give a quick synopsis on how the players performed overall compared to my expectations.
Ty’son Williams- 13 carries for 77 yards and two catches for 16 yards(11.3 PPR points); Evan
Mitchell-17 carries for 42 yards and two catches for 11 yards(7.3 PPR points); and
Mike Williams-7 catches for 91 yards and a touchdown(22.1 PPR fantasy points)
Goff-26/36 for 246 yards and two touchdowns(1 interceptions and a fumble) 17 fantasy points via Sleeper: Pascal-5 catches for 38 yards and a touchdown(14.8 PPR fantasy points); and Ingram-14 carries for 41 yards and no catches(4.1 fantasy points).
In grading the outcome, I would give myself three definite wins (both Mike and Ty’son Williams, as well as Ingram). Goff was the QB18, Mitchell the RB30, and Pascal the WR38. As the say, beauty is in the beholder. I would consider this a rather successful week, with Mitchell being the only true miss.
Breakouts
2021 Dynasty Prospect: Rondale Moore, Purdue
Rondale Moore (WR-Cardinals) considering this preview was written in February, the piece reminds me of the spirit of Nostradamus. Jeff Bell nailed it when he predicted that Moore could likely go to a team with a later selection that would even make him more fantasy relevant. Although some projected Moore as a late first round selection, he actually fell to the Cardinals in the second round with the 49th overall pick.
Through two weeks, his quarterback Kyler Murray is the QB1 in fantasy. Murray has completed 50 of 73 passes, for 689 yards and seven touchdowns. Moore currently leads the team in targets(13) and has 11 catches for 182 yards and a touchdown. Although Moore’s 77 yard touchdown was somewhat fluky in week two, his involvement in the offense is not. Moving forward, Moore will provide a solid floor with WR2/WR3 upside.
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Embed from Getty ImagesSterling Shephard(WR-Giants) perpetually undervalued, Shephard is currently the WR9 in Sleeper leagues. On the season, Shephard has 16 catches(on 19 targets) for 207 yards and one touchdown. In week three, he faces an Atlanta defense that has given up up 80 points in the first two games of the season.
Although it is exceedingly unlikely that Shephard maintains WR1 production, his staying power as a weekly WR2/WR3 should not be overlooked. In 2018, he was the WR28 on the season. In addition, he has finished as the WR48 or better in every year since he has joined the league in 2016.
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Teddy Bridgewater(QB-Broncos) through two weeks, Bridgewater is the QB12 in Sleeper leagues. On the season, Bridgewater has completed 54 of 70 passes(77 percent of his passes) for 592 yards and four touchdowns. Bridgewater is currently owned in only 24 percent of Sleeper leagues.
The main question for Bridgewater, of course, will be his ability to stay the course.. In three different seasons during his career, Bridgewater has finished as the QB23 or higher(last season was his best at QB19). He is on a current 17 game pace of attempting 595 passes(the previous career high was 492 last season). Even without Jerry Jeudy(ankle-IR) at his disposal for the next 3-5 weeks, Bridgewater has the weapons to be one of the most consistent weekly streamers.
Fake Outs
Zack Moss(Bills-RB) in week two, Moss had eight carries for 26 yards and two touchdowns. He also added two receptions(on two targets) for eight yards. Meanwhile, Devin Singletary had 13 carries for 82 yards and a touchdown. He also added two catches for nine yards. This followed up a week one performance in which Singletary had 11 carries for 73 yards.
Singletary is currently listed atop the Bills depth chart, and as the article linked above states, is the preferred option in the passing game. Although Moss will continue to have a role, scoring two touchdowns in a given week to save your fantasy day is not a good recipe for success.
A.J. Green(WR-Cardinals) as mentioned previously, Kyler Murray is currently the QB1 in fantasy. Through two weeks, Green has only five receptions(on 12 targets) for 69 yards and one touchdown(3 catches for 44 yards and the TD in week two) . Although Green’s 16 percent target share isn’t bad, his efficiency with these targets is.
Over the 2020 season, Green accumulated only 111 fantasy points and sat out the entire 2019 season due to injury. Although he scored 14.10 fantasy points or more in a three out of five game stretch( weeks 6/7/11) in 2020, I recommend staying away from these brief glimpses of the old Green. I would anticipate many of his targets going to either Rondale Moore or Christian Kirk as the season progresses.
Darius Slayton(WR-Giants) although I have been teased with Slayton’s upside for the last two years, he simply hasn’t been consistent enough for me to trust him on a regular basis. In week two, he had three catches(on six targets) for 54 yards and a touchdown. This followed a week one performance in which Slayton had three catches(on seven targets) for 65 yards.
in 2020, Slayton had 50 catches for 751 yards and three touchdowns. These numbers made him the WR51 in PPR leagues. Fantasy owners should remember that Evan Engram has missed the first two games, and that Saquon Barkley only has 23 rushes and six targets through two games. Although Slayton will have other respectable games, his owners will need to flip a coin to figure out when these good games will be.
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