Another week of chaos, upsets fantasy miracles, and disappointments. In a week where Davante Adams should smash, head coach Josh McDaniels took incompetence to a new level. Let’s lose badly to a Chicago Bears team starting an undrafted rookie out of Division II Shepherd. What could go wrong? We will start with Brian Hoyer, who has the distinction of having lost 16 straight games (now 17).
Pepper Adams, with 12 targets, let him have (looks at stat sheet) seven receptions for 57 yards. That is the opposite of Smash unless we discuss smashing my fantasy hopes.
And I’ll see you Sunday, Minshew. Gardner Minshew is the very definition of any given Sunday. Minshew followed up a piss-poor three interceptions, one fumble, four rushing yards game against a mediocre defense with 305 passing yards, two passing touchdowns, and two rushing touchdowns against the number one defense. Once again, proving that one person’s trash is another person’s gold. Minshew finished as QB3. Yep, in Week 7, Minshew was everybody’s gold.
Speaking of gold, if you haven’t had the opportunity to listen to the man with the prop bets of the week, I got you. Here is @theBleaguesays with the Prop Bets for Week 8.
Smash Plays
Quarterback, C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans -3.0 @ Carolina Panthers, 42.5 o/u
Both the Panthers and the Texans are coming off a bye week. The Panthers are 0-6, and the Texans are 3-3. Stroud is the front-runner to win Offensive Rookie of the Year. Stroud’s odds have shifted from -145 to -175. And yet, he is still available in 45% of fantasy leagues.
This week, it is the battle of the first-round draft picks.
The Panthers are giving up the ninth most passing yards per game, 197.8. They have given up 203.3 passing yards per game in their last three games. The Panthers have also allowed 10 passing touchdowns.
In his last three games before the bye week, Stroud passed for four touchdowns and one interception in his three games. He also had 306, 249, and 199 passing yards.
This game could go over the predicted amount. The Panthers are first in passing attempts per game (40.2). The Texans are ninth in passing attempts per game (35.7).
Running Back, Alexander Mattison, Minnesota Vikings -1.0 @ Green Bay Packers, 41.5 o/u
The Packers surrender an average of 19.1 fantasy points to the running back position. In the last three weeks, the Packers have allowed 150.7 rushing yards to opposing teams. Denver Broncos’ Javonte Williams averaged 5.5 yards per carry against the last week on his way to an 82-yard day.
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Last week, Cam Akers appeared in the backfield with Mattison. In a game where the Vikings only ran for a combined 74 yards, Akers led the way in rushing attempts (10) but only managed 31 yards.
Mattison averaged 4.9 yards per attempt. He was also on the field for 52.9% of the offensive snaps. Akers’ snap percentage was 38.6%.
Wide Receiver, Zay Flowers, Baltimore Ravens -8.0 @ Arizona Cardinals, 43.5 o/u
The Cardinals are giving up an average of 25.4 fantasy points a game to the wide receiver position. Flowers averages 7.7 targets a game while being on the field for 87.45% of the offensive snaps.
Lamar Jackson and the Ravens are getting comfortable in Todd Monken’s offense. Last week, that manifested itself when the Ravens had a 69% pass rate on early downs (20 passes/nine rushes). Jackson completed 21-of-27 passes (78%) for 357 yards and three passing touchdowns.
The Cardinals’ secondary is in the bottom three in completion percentage versus man (71.2%) and zone (78.4%). Cornerback Marco Wilson is giving up 79.5% completion percentage when targeted and has allowed three passing touchdowns.
Cash Plays
Quarterback Kenny Pickett, Pittsburgh Steelers v Jacksonville Jaguars -2.5, 41.5 o/u
The Jaguars are giving up 273.9 passing yards per game. It is the second worst. They have also allowed 10 passing touchdowns. That would be a smash, except the Jaguars are playing the ninth-lowest offensive team.
The Steelers are averaging 175.7 passing yards. Pickett has 23, 32, and 25 passing attempts in his last three games. That coincided with 114, 224, and 230 passing yards per game.
In case you haven’t heard, the Steelers’ offensive is anemic. Pickett should be a Smash spot, but he isn’t. Now is Pickett’s and Matt Canada’s chance to finally Smash.
Running Back, D’Andre Swift, Philadelphia Eagles -6.5 @ Washington Commanders, 43.5 o/u
Divisional games are not pretty. The Commanders played the Eagles in an overtime game in Week 5. In that game, Swift averaged four yards per carry. He finished the night with 56 rushing yards, four targets, four receptions, 23 yards and a touchdown. Swift finished that game with 13.9 fantasy points.
Swift is averaging 14.4 rushing attempts per game. He is on the field for 58.83% of the offensive snaps and 4.3 targets per game.
It’s a divisional game, and all bets are off. But the Commanders allow 14.8 fantasy points per game to the running back position.
Wide Receiver, D.J. Moore, Chicago Bears @ Los Angeles Chargers -9.0, 46.5 o/u
The Chargers are 32nd in passing yards allowed per game, 310.0. They are giving up an average of 30.6 fantasy points per game to the wide receiver position.
Moore is on the field for 92.24% of the offensive snaps. Last week, backup quarterback Tyson Bagent attempted 29 passes. Moore led the team with nine targets, eight receptions, and 54 yards.
Quarterback, Las Vegas Raiders @ Detroit Lions -8.0, 44.5 o/u
At this point, it doesn’t matter who is under center. It is a dumpster fire in the desert. The Lions are only allowing 18.0 fantasy points to the quarterback position. Although Lamar Jackson torched the Lions last week to the tune of 357 passing yards and three touchdowns, before that, they were pretty tight against the quarterback position.
This isn’t really about the Lions’ defense. The quarterbacks for the Raiders would be a dumpster fire regardless of who is on the opposite side. My new mantra is “Davante Adams deserves better.”
Running Back, Brian Robinson, Washington Commanders v Philadelphia Eagles -6.5, 43.5 o/u
I will say it again: divisional games are unpredictable. However, Robinson is only averaging 3.8 yards per carry.
In Week 4, Robinson averaged 3.2 yards per carry and, on 14 carries, accumulated 45 yards against the Eagles. Since then, Kyren Williams averaged 4.1 yards per carry, Breece Hall 3.3, and Raheem Mostert averaged 5.0 yards per carry, but he only accumulated 45 yards.
Wide Receiver, Wan’Dale Robinson, New York Giants v New York Jets -3.0, 36.5 o/u
The Jets’ defense may be vulnerable in the middle, but they are pretty stout against the receivers. The Jets are giving up only 13.3 fantasy points to the wide receiver position.
There is also the question of who will be under center ( I kind of hope it is Tyrod Taylor for my fantasy stock in Darren Waller).
While A.J. Brown torched the Jets for 131 receiving yards, Jerry Jeudy, Travis Kelce, and Kendrick Bourne were all held below 75.
TIGHT ENDS
We all know my disdain for predicting how tight ends will do week to week. You are a streamer Unless you are Kelce, T.J. Hockenson, or Dallas Goedert. There has been a Kyle Pitts sighting; however, this week, the Atlanta Falcons play the Tennessee Titans, who only allow 4.7 fantasy points to the tight end position. Waller is in a great matchup, as the Jets are giving up the most fantasy points to the tight end position (10.5). Truth be told, I like his prospects more if Taylor is under center.
And then there is everyone’s favorite rookie, Sam LaPorta, who has a meh matchup with the reeling Las Vegas Raiders. The Raiders are allowing 5.9 fantasy points to the tight ends. LaPorta will go into Week 8 as TE3. Look for LaPorta to exceed his EPA. Remember I said the Raiders look to be a dumpster fire.
“How to win in life: 1. work hard; 2. complain less; 3. listen more; 4. try, learn, grow; 5. don’t let people tell you it can’t be done, and 6. make no excuses.”
Good Luck! Play hard, and email me if you have any questions. First answer: Yes, your dog loves you more than you can imagine.
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