Week 14 of the NFL season is here and for many of us, that means 1 thing – playoff time. It can be easy, while we’re scouring the wire for the 10th time and sweating each lineup decision, to only focus on our teams that made it to the dance. The excitement of the playoff run is undeniable and because you’re reading goingfor2.com, you’ve likely got more teams still alive than not. I’d like to spend some time on the other side of the equation; the players that completely let us down and left us asking “what went wrong.” Yes, we can all point to the injuries you’ve undoubtedly endured this year, but I think it’s a more valuable exercise to look for the spots where we were flat out wrong. The spots on our roster that dragged us down all season. The biggest busts of 2020. I have built the 2020 All-Bust team in hopes of understanding what went wrong with these players, where we missed in our research, and how to avoid the players in drafts to come.
Embed from Getty ImagesQuarterback
Lamar Jackson | ADP – 16.5 (QB2) | YTD – QB10
Yes, he is coming off a big week against the Cowboys where he showed a bit of the sizzle that made him a 2nd round draft pick but that can be filed away as too little, too late. Not only is Jackson clearly the biggest bust at the position, but his decline has led to many other players turning in performances worthy of the bust team. Regression in the deep passing game has not only taken away many of the explosive passing plays from Lamar’s ledger, but it has also allowed defenses to sell out to stop the run and to mitigate his elite contribution on the ground. He has flashed at times, but more often than not he’s left fantasy owners feeling disappointed and sweating a tough decision at the QB spot they thought was a lock-button.
Running Backs
RB1 – Ezekiel Elliott | ADP – 2.5 (RB2) | YTD RB10
This one is tricky given that Zeke has put forth an “aight” season thus far. His scoring average still has him as the number 10 running back on the year but much of that productivity came in 3 games early in the season. Removing those performances, Elliot averages just about 9 points/game and doesn’t finish inside the top 20 at the position. An average draft position of 2.5 means that Elliot was consistently one of the first 3 running backs off the board and, unlike many drafted around him, he cannot point to a significant injury as the cause for his downturn. Coming off a 2019 campaign where Zeke delivered 1,777 total yards and 14 total TDs; many in the industry bought into Dallas as one of the most potent offenses in the league with Elliot playing a significant role. Thus far in 2020, he’s averaged a career-low 3.9 yards/carry and generally looks to have lost much of the burst, vision, and ball security we saw in prior seasons. Elliot has flashed at times, but has also given way to an expanded role by Tony Pollard this year and likely has many of his owners outside of the playoff picture.
RB2 – Miles Sanders | ADP – 21.5 (RB14) | YTD – RB29
If you’re anything like me, you were floating on cloud 9 walking out of your draft if you snagged Miles Sanders as your RB2. Depending on when you drafted, some had to invest a late 1st rounder to acquire him – and likely felt pretty alright about it. The Eagles had shipped out his primary competition for carries in Jordan Howard and for the first time in who knows when; came into the season with a mostly healthy roster. That didn’t last long. Fast forward a few short weeks Sanders had already missed time with injury and 4 of his 5 starting O-linemen had been replaced by rookies or guys signed off the street. Miles Sanders has flashed at points this year, but it’s been far more bad than good; with only 2 finishes inside the top 10 at the position and twice as many as RB30 or worse. The story of Sanders’ season is one of workload. He never assumed the carries left behind by Jordan Howard (averaging about 13/game) and, even worse, he forfeited a significant part of his role in the passing game; where his per game receptions dropped by almost 50%. Despite all of us hoping otherwise, the Eagles offense continued to platoon running backs and that is ultimately what finds Sanders on the all bust team.
Wide Receivers
WR1 – Julio Jones | ADP 14.5 (WR4) | YTD – WR33
Yes, Julio has missed a bit of time due to injury, which typically would disqualify him from this list. However, his time off the field has been minimal (only missing 3 games), and worse than actually being ruled out is giving it a go when he’s not healthy enough to play on all snaps; which has become a Julio Jones trademark as of late. Julio’s difficulty staying on the field is only part of his story this year. The Falcons are amongst the worst teams in the league in QB pressures, limiting the big plays Julio has built a career on, and the emergence of Calvin Ridley as the new favorite option finds Jones contributing as a fringe starter week after week.
WR2 – Mike Evans | ADP 24.0 (WR7) | YTD – WR19
Granted, Evans was likely only your WR2 if you took a zero-RB line into the draft this year, but the extent to which he disappointed warrants a deeper dive. Many people, myself included, viewed Evans as exactly the type of big-bodied pass catcher that Tom Brady has spent his career targeting and expected the arrival of TB to mean big things for Evans’ on-field production. While he’s managed to stay mostly healthy, the ceiling games we had hoped for largely didn’t come to pass; with Evans only having 3 weeks inside the top 10 at the position and twice as many efforts resulting in a finish outside of the top 25. With the benefit of hindsight, the number of mouths to feed in that offense Tom Brady’s propensity for distributing the ball set up perfectly for Evan’s disappointing season. This is one that we likely should have seen coming.
WR3 – TY Hilton | ADP 61.0 (WR26) | YTD – WR51
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Except for his traditional “go nuts against the Texans” game, T.Y. Hilton has been an unqualified bust this year. Many were hopeful about Hilton’s prospects with the change at QB and additions to the offense that included a young stud running back and another legitimate receiving threat to draw defensive attention from the opposing backfield. The reality couldn’t be more different for Hilton, averaging just about 9 points per game on the season and has finished outside of the top 30 at the position in 8 out of his 11 games on the season. Like Julio Jones, much of the issue with TY is his propensity to try and play through injury; leaving many owners with dismal scoring output that could have been avoided had Hilton just been ruled out. Additionally, we were likely a bit too bullish on the impact of Phillip Rivers taking over at QB. While he is certainly a more experienced and capable passer than Brissett, Rivers’ ability to push the ball downfield and into the hands of a streaking Hilton is arguably the worst among starters. A disappointing year from your WR3 shouldn’t be a death-blow to your team, but when you consider that 5 of the current top 10 at the position were drafted in this same round or later; it’s hard not to consider TY one of the bigger busts of the year.
Tight End
Tyler Higbee | ADP – 96.0 (TE9) | YTD – TE24
Tyler Higbee came into the 2020 draft season as the apple of many analysts’ eyes. What we saw from him to finish the 2019 campaign might be one of the best stretches ever put together at the position and many saw that production continuing into this year and Higbee emerging as an Elite option at a barren position. Over the closing 5 weeks of last season, Higbee was the TE1, playing on over 90% of snaps and averaging 21 points per game. The Rams had suddenly committed to a 12 personnel package during that stretch but, to the dismay of Higbee owners, immediately shifted away from that grouping in 2020. This has left Higbee struggling to see time on the field and with only 2 games inside the top 10 at the position. He has shown an ability to get into the endzone from time to time this year but given how horrid he’s played through the season, those scores were more likely to take place on your bench than in your starting lineup.
Whether or not your playoff absence is on the backs of our All Bust team or due to other factors, there are absolutely some common threads we can learn from and carry into next year:
- Prior injury is the biggest predictor of future injury. Even if the guy you’re thinking about drafting is coming into the year healthy; if he’s got a history of injury it’s more likely than not that he’ll struggle to stay healthy in the year to come.
- Look for spots where statistical regression is a likely outcome and tilt your projection in that direction. This is both for players coming off a breakout year and for their supporting cast. It’s far more likely that they’ll perform in-line with prior output and it is that they’ll replicate the high-end of their productivity range.
- Be mindful of sample sizes. If a player came on late in the year or had big performances while other players were out, ask yourself if those outcomes were the exception or the rule.
- Keep an eye out for situations where newly added players or emerging young talent can eat into the prior year’s workload. This is one of the areas of variance that is hard to account for but as a general rule; avoid variance in your high draft picks.
- Believe your eyes. If coaches always rotate running backs or QBs always distribute the ball to a ton of different pass catches, don’t expect that to suddenly change.
- Most importantly, stick with Goingfor2.com for the in-depth analysis you need to get back into the winner’s circle in 2021!
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