We have all heard it during the fantasy football draft season: the wide receiver pool is deep. Whether your redraft fantasy football league is playing standard or PPR, your fantasy football team depends on you drafting the wide receiver with the most impact.
At least six wide receiver duos are experiencing change going into the NFL 2023 season. The impact of the change is what concerns us.
Here are six wide-receiver duos with some quality change coming into this season. The attempt is to list them from least concerning to most, but that’s subjective, depending on your fantasy football team. Let me know if you think of more (preferably before my NFL 2023 Draft next Sunday)!!
Thanks to profootballreference.com, teamrankings.com and fantasypros.com for their stats!
Wide Receiver Duos That Will Impact Your Fantasy Football Team
Philadelphia Eagles: A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith
There is a new offensive coordinator in town. That impact should not be too concerning as he was previously the quarterbacks coach and has familiarity with the system and Jalen Hurts.
Strength of Schedule
The second change is inevitable. The Eagles will go from having the easiest strength of schedule last year, where their opponents had a 0.474 winning percentage, to one of the hardest strength of schedules this season. In the NFL 2023 season, the Eagles’ opponents have a combined 0.566 strength of schedule this season.
The Eagles were comfortably ahead by halftime in most of their 2022 games. Their passing yards in the first half of games were 2711, with 1549 coming in the second quarter. By the fourth quarter, the passing yards dropped to 681, with the second-half total equaling 1653.
They had 14 passing touchdowns in the first half 11 coming in the second quarter. In the second half, they combined for 11 touchdowns. With a harder schedule, the Eagles may need to keep pressing through all four quarters, making their passing yards a more equitable distribution. That is the good.
Albert Okwuegbunam
General manager Howie Roseman explained why the Eagles brought in Okwuegbunam. With his size and ability, it is easy to picture Okwuegbunam being a contributor by mid-season. The issue will be keeping him on the field. In his three seasons, he has only played 26 total games. If he stays healthy, his play from the Denver Broncos’ last preseason game is a glimpse of his capabilities.
Impact on your fantasy football team
The impact in Philadelphia for the wide-receiving duo should be minimal. Brown was on the receiving end of a 29% target share and 146 targets. Smith had a 25.3% target share and 136 targets. Tight end Dallas Goedert had 67 targets and three touchdowns in 12 regular season games. The impact on the wide receivers is minimal and with a harder schedule advantageous to our fantasy football leagues.
Minnesota Vikings, Justin Jefferson, and Jordan Addison
There is minimal concern here. In NFL 2023 fantasy football drafts, Jefferson is the first wide receiver going off the boards. The Vikings released Adam Thielen and waived N’Keal Harry.
Jordan Addison
Addison is the impact change. It is premature to call this a duo. Last season (with Thielen), Jefferson had 26 red zone targets on a 28% target share. He finished first in fantasy points and second in expected fantasy points per game with 15.9.
Addison is WR2 with Thielen out. Thielen departure leaves a 15.9% target share and 107 targets from last season. Addison’s main competition for targets will be tight end T.J. Hockenson. Last season, Hockenson commanded a 20.5% target share and 109 targets. Thielen still managed his 107 targets, and Addison should have no trouble doing the same.
Until the rookie Addison demonstrates his prowess on the field, it isn’t accurate to call this a duo. There are two wide receivers. And quarterback Kirk Cousins has demonstrated he can feed two wide receivers. In Jefferson’s first year with Cousins and Thielen, Jefferson had 1400 receiving yards, and Thielen had 925, with Thielen finishing WR11 and Jefferson WR9.
Fantasy Football Impact
Not that it matters for Jefferson, but the Vikings have a mid-level strength of schedule in half-PPR formats. That information is useful for Addison, who is currently being drafted in the seventh round.
For fantasy football impact purposes, remember that Addison will see single coverage out of the slot. PPR formats and half-PPR formats are where Addison will shine this season.
New Orleans Saints, Chris Olave, and Michael Thomas
The Saints have a new quarterback, and (fingers crossed) Thomas is back.
Fantasy Football Impact
Per NFELO @greeneNFL statistics, the Saints ran 11-personnel 45% and 12 personnel 31% of the time on first downs. Besides Olave and Thomas, there is also Rashid Shaheed.
Since 2020, Thomas has only played 10 games with 56 receptions. Last season with Olave, Thomas played the first three games before suffering a toe injury. He had 16 receptions, 171 yards, and three touchdowns in those three games.
Olave played in 15 games last season. He was on the receiving end of 119 targets with a 26.6% target share. Olave finished the season with 72 receptions, 1042 yards and four touchdowns. Olave was only targeted 13 times in the red zone.
Here is the good news for some. New quarterback Derek Carr’s skill set matches Thomas’ strengths. Per Pro Football Focus, Thomas’ top two pass routes over the last five seasons were crossing and slant routes. He was only targeted on deep routes on 5% of his targets. Carr has a 94 PFF grade when throwing a crossing route over the last five seasons. That is the fourth-highest for a quarterback with at least 200 crossing attempts. Carr has the second-highest passing grade when throwing slants (92.8).
Olave’s top two routes last season were outs and hitches. Shaheed’s were outs and screens. Both Olave and Shaheed had 23% of their targets on outs. They were both targeted on deep routes over 20%.
When throwing out routes, Carr has a 62.6 PFF passing grade. That is the third-lowest grade among 25 quarterbacks with at least 150 outs. Carr’s deep ball completion rate was 31.9% last season but Andy Dalton’s was 28.2% and Olave thrived.
Play Thomas early and often for your 2023 fantasy football team and DFS roster. Olave is a generational talent. If you have him, you play him. Just don’t discount Thomas if he is healthy.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Mike Evans, and Chris Godwin
The Buccaneers will be playing under a new offensive coordinator. But more important, there is a new quarterback under center. The Buccaneers will be going from Tom Brady to Baker Mayfield.
The 2019 season is the only season Mayfield had two 1000-yard receivers, both Jarvis Landry and Odell Beckham Jr. Landry had 1174 receiving yards with a 26.6% target share and 138 targets. Beckham Jr. had 1035 receiving yards on a 25.6% target share and 133 targets. In that season, the Cleveland Browns were 20th in passing attempts per game (33.7) and 18th in passing play percentage (59.61%).
Last season, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers with Brady were first in passing attempts per game (45.4) and first in passing play percentage (67.88%). The 534 passing attempts in 2019 were the most in Mayfield’s career. It was also the year of his lowest completion percentage (59.4). The moral of the story is that it is highly unlikely the Buccaneers come anywhere close to last season’s passing numbers and thus wide receiver target volume.
Even with the gaudy passing numbers last season, Evans finished as WR16 in standard leagues. He averaged 9.9 fantasy points per game. In PPR leagues, finishing as WR17, averaging 15 fantasy points per game, Evan did not have a great year. Evans’ fantasy numbers were boosted by one week, where he scored over 20% of his fantasy points total. In Week 16, Evans collected 10 receptions, 207 yards, and three touchdowns (he only had six touchdowns all year).
Evans, the red zone threat, had six touchdowns all last season and was 22nd in red zone targets (14). He was also third in deep targets with 31. Evans finished the season with 1124 receiving yards on 128 targets.
Godwin didn’t fare much better last season. He finished as WR26 in standard fantasy football leagues, averaging 7.9 fantasy points per game. In PPR leagues, Godwin was WR19, averaging 14.9 fantasy points per game.
Last season, Godwin had a 21.8% target share with 142 targets. He was 18th in red zone targets and finished the season with 1023 receiving yards. Godwin did that with an aDOT of 5.6. Most reassuring is that Godwin was sixth in yards after catch with 487.
Godwin is the better choice for a fantasy football team’s impact between the two, with Mayfield under center. His yards after catch coincide with Mayfield’s 6.8 yards per attempt last season. That ranked Mayfield 29 out of 33 qualifiers.
There is some speculation, however, that Godwin moves outside this season. That and the lower passing percentage put a ceiling on the 2023 NFL season for this wide receiver duo.
It is now reported that Evans wants out of Tampa. That will impact your fantasy football team.
New York Jets, Garrett Wilson, and Allen Lazard
This should be quick. The Jets have a new offensive coordinator, a new quarterback, and new wide receivers.
Last season, the Jets played with three different quarterbacks. None of those quarterbacks completed more than 60% of their passes. They were the second-worst team in the NFL in the red zone, ranking 29th in points scored. They scored touchdowns on only 43% of their trips inside the red zone.
In the nine games Wilson played with quarterback Zach Wilson, Wilson, the wide receiver, had 34receptions, 447, and zero touchdowns. Wilson, the receiver, averaged 8.8 fantasy points per game. In the other eight games with Joe Flacco and Mike White under center, Wilson had 49 receptions, 656 receiving yards, and four touchdowns. He averaged 17.3 points per game.
Lazard followed his quarterback to New York. Last season, Lazard played in 15 games. He had a 21.1% target share with 100 targets. Lazard had 24 deep targets (12th) 16 red zone targets (12th), and averaged 11.7 fantasy points per game.
Wilson, with his merry band of quarterbacks, had a 24.9% target share with 147 targets. He finished the season with 83 receptions and 1103 receiving yards and was only on the field for 78.8% of the offensive snaps.
The 2022 Rookie of the Year is the WR1 for the Jets. The only concern is if Rodgers depends on familiarity early and goes with Lazard. The Jets’ first six games before the bye are challenging. Five of the six teams are in the top 15 with the fewest passing yards allowed. The lone team out of the top 15 is the Kansas City Chiefs, sitting at 20th. The last two teams they will play before their bye week, the Denver Broncos and the Philadelphia Eagles, yielded the second-fewest and eighth-fewest fantasy points per game to the wide receiver position.
Dallas Cowboys, CeeDee Lamb, and Brandin Cooks
Cooks has gone over 1,000 receiving yards in six of his last nine seasons. Lamb has improved his receiving yards and fantasy standing over his last three seasons.
Offensive coordinator Kellen Moore is gone. Brian Schottenheimer is the new offensive coordinator, but head coach Mike McCarthy will call the offensive plays. According to Renee Miller from The Athletic, “[the] goal with Schottenheimer’s offense and Mike McCarthy’s offensive play calling is to increase the efficiency of the passing game.”
From 2006-18, when McCarthy called plays in Green Bay, his offenses finished outside the top 20 in neutral passing rate just once. The offense’s average finish was 10th in neutral passing rate. While most are worried the Cowboys will run the ball more (get it), remember that last season, the Cowboys ran the ball 45.4%. They ran the ball 65.2% of the time when they were within five yards of the end zone. That was the sixth of all time, with Ezekiel Elliott doing most of the work there. Elliott ran the ball 21 times in that situation.
Now Elliott is gone. Tight end Dalton Schultz is gone. Schultz was the second-leading receiver in Dallas. In his 15 games, he had an 18.7% target share, 89 targets, and 577 receiving yards.
Now, not only will Cooks be able to slide outside or in the slot, thereby freeing up Lamb, but reports out of Dallas have both lining up on the same side of the field. Lamb is currently going as WR7 in fantasy football drafts. Cooks is going as WR40. Cooks is too low, and Lamb is just right.
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