WR Xavier Worthy – texas
6’1″ | 172
Career Stats: 196 rec, 2752 yds, 25 td
Pros
In many other dynasty fantasy football rookie classes, Xavier Worthy would likely be a top-three wide receiver. In 2024, he is not (for me), but he is firmly in the conversation for number 4 or 5.
Worthy is fast and explosive, but also quick and twitchy with very good footwork. He beats defenders consistently to get open. Worthy can win vertically on deeper routes, as well as on shorter ones, and he has played both inside and outside at Texas. Some drops in 2022 concerned folks, but a hand injury contributed to those, so he gets a bit of a pass there, especially because he cleaned that up in 2023. Finally, Worthy will just turn 21 years old on Day 3 of the NFL Draft.
Embed from Getty ImagesAnalytically, Worthy’s best season and career numbers are pretty good. We would like to see his career yards per route run (YPRR) number above 2.5 to be in the elite range, but a 2.21 mark is still very good, especially considering Worthy got more short-area targets in 2023 than in the past and had the drops issue in 2022. He is a true freshman breakout, which we like, and in that season had a dominator rating of 39% and an excellent receiving yards per team pass attempt (RYPTPA) mark of 2.84. Worthy should check the draft capital box as well, with the second round looking like the lowest he will go. (numbers per PFF and Campus2Canton)
Cons
The first knock on Worthy will be his size. While smaller players are doing better in the NFL in recent years, Worthy’s size, physicality, and play strength will limit the number of ways in which he can win as a pro, both as a route runner and at the catch point. He likely will not have to worry much about press coverage because teams need to respect his deep-threat ability, but he does struggle in that regard at times. This is partly why Worthy will likely be an NFL team’s WR2, but he can still be productive for our dynasty fantasy football purposes.
Worthy’s other criticism has been his drops, but as I mentioned above, the hand injury affected a number of those, and others seem to be focus drops and not a matter of poor technique. Additionally, Worthy won’t be asked to do much contested catch work in the NFL.
From an analytics perspective, Worthy’s weight and resulting BMI will not meet thresholds, so neither will his speed score, which adjusts for weight, even though he should run a very fast 40-yard dash. As mentioned above, the overall YPRR could also be better, and we generally do not love a general decline in numbers after the great freshman season – but playing on teams with Bijan Robinson, Cedric Baxter, Adonai Mitchell, and Ja’Tavian Sanders can affect that, as can inconsistent quarterback play from Malik Murphy and Quinn Ewers, and an undisclosed lower-body injury in 2023. (numbers per PFF and Campus2Canton)
Summary
Xavier Worthy is a great fit for current NFL offenses and he has a lot of upside for fantasy football. He will win with speed and quickness, so he is not just a deep threat. I seem to be higher than consensus on him, and I think he could very well be a first round pick when it’s all said and done. It’s early, and we have a deep wide receiver class, but some interesting fits include Dallas (pick 24), Arizona (27), Buffalo (28), Baltimore (30), and Kansas City (31 or 32). If he makes it into the second round, the first eight to ten teams could come calling, including Carolina (33), the Chargers (37), and Tennessee (38). If he gets past Jacksonville (48) and Philadelphia (50), I would be surprised, and I might have to adjust my expectations.
Strengths
- vertical speed
- quickness, footwork, route-running
- YAC upside
- early breakout
- competition level
Concerns
- weight
- strength and physicality
- beating press coverage
- some concentration drops
2024 Dynasty Rookie Draft Projection: late 1st/Early 2nd in a 12 team superflex tight end premium league
Ideal Role: WR2 as slot and Z/flanker
Player Comp: Jameson Williams, Marquise Brown, Zay Flowers, Tank Dell, Jaylen Waddle, DeSean Jackson
