Week 10 is now upon us. That means another chance to win big playing DFS. Here are my picks for the optimal Yahoo prices and strategy involving their DFS format. Article sections include Home and Dome, Preferred Positional Price Points, Best Bet Bargains, Dominant Defenses and Super Stacks.
The main Yahoo slate does not include Thursday or Monday Night Football.
For more information on Yahoo NFL DFS scoring setting and lineup requirements, check out the Week 1 article.
Home and Dome
There are a few elements that I look at in order to find the most desired matchups. There is what I call Home and Dome, teams that are playing at home with an indoor stadium. Wind can be a factor that can negatively impact passing offenses and being indoors takes that element away. Three teams play Home and Dome during the Week 10 Sunday slate:
Dallas Cowboys vs Minnesota Vikings
Indianapolis Colts vs Miami Dolphins
New Orleans Saints vs Atlanta Falcons
Preferred Position Price Points
Because the pricing is so compressed on Yahoo’s format, there are a lot more players at the same cost than there are on other platforms. For our purposes, that is great because it gives us certain price ranges to target when creating DFS lineups.
QB – $27-$28
Kyler Murray ARI @ TB $28
The Cardinals-Buccaneers game has the highest combined over/under on the slate at 52.5 points. While Arizona may prefer a ball-control run-heavy approach, this is not the matchup to employ that. Tampa Bay is ranked as the most efficient run defense in DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average). However, they are ranked as the 7th least efficient passing defense. This bodes well for Kyler Murray, who will need to use his arm to win the game. Also, while he has not run as much over the last two weeks, Murray is always a threat on the ground.
Daniel Jones NYG @ NYJ $27
Similarly to Kyler Murray, Daniel Jones also finds himself facing an opponent that is more susceptible through the air then they are on the ground. The Jets have the 2nd best run defense DVOA, yet are 8th worst in pass defense DVOA. Jones has also started running more in recent weeks. This could provide some additional points in terms of rushing yards, and maybe even a rushing TD.
RB – $26 – $27
Nick Chubb CLE vs BUF
Just like the QBs in the preferred positional price pints, the RBs in this section also have favorable matchups according to DVOA. In the case of Nick Chubb, the Bills have the 3rd least efficient run defense, yet they are the 5th most efficient pass defense. That should encourage the Browns to run as much as possible. Chubb is a decent cash play but he may be even better in GPPs and tournaments. With a certain teammate of his returning for a suspension, Chubb’s ownership may be lower than this matchup necessitates.
Marlon Mack IND vs MIA
Unlike with previous players that were mentioned, the Colts play a team that is vulnerable both through the air and on the ground. The reason that Indianapolis may employ a run-heavy approach is more to do with their current situation. QB Jacoby Brissett left the last game with an MCL injury. His status for week 10 is in question. If he does play, the Colts may want to limit the number of times that he drops back. If Brissett can’t go, then Brian Hoyer takes over under center. Either way, expect to see a heavy dose of Marlon Mack against the 2nd least efficient run defense so far in 2019.
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WR -$28 – $29
Chris Godwin TB vs ARI $29
The Cardinals pass defense DVOA is ranked as the 5th least efficient. That provides a great matchup for the Buccanneers passing game options, including Chris Godwin. Among all WRs playing in the Week 9 Sunday slate, Godwin has the 3rd most fantasy points per game so far in 2019. Only twice this season has Godwin failed to see at least 8 targets, and both of those games were in September. In these most recent contests, Godwin has been heavily featured in Tampa Bay’s areal attack and that should continue this week.
Davante Adams GB vs CAR $28
Davante Adams returned to the Packers lineup last week and immediately saw 11 targets. He is prioritized in the Packers passing plan, evidenced by the fact that only once this season has Adams received less than 8 targets, and that was when he was shadowed by Chris Harris. One element that works in Adams’ favor is the fact that he is not always lined up on the outside. At times, Adams plays in the slot to get him some quick passes in space. Against the vaunted Panthers pass-rush, throwing underneath to Adams could be a common sight on Sunday. While that may hurt his yards per reception, the large volume of targets should allow him to maintain fantasy production.
TE – $14
Jack Doyle IND vs MIA
Pass-catching options in a Home and Dome game is usually favorable. However, that is not the only reason I am advocating for Jack Doyle. As mentioned earlier when referring to Marlon Mack, the Dolphins defense is super susceptible to rushing production. Compared to the rest of the NFL, Miami’s passing defense is arguably worse. According to DVOA, the Dolphins have the worst pass defense in the league. That makes Doyle a great play, especially if you are paying down into the TD-dependant range at TE. The major concern with Doyle is the health of Jacoby Brissett. Doyle’s chances of finding the end zone certainly increase with Brissett. However, Brian Hoyer has proven to be a capable QB. He and Doyle did connect on a TD last week.
Gerald Everett LAR @ PIT
Gerald Everett has almost eclipsed his career-bests in single-season receptions, yards and TDs. The reason is that Everett is seeing far more targets than in the previous two seasons. Part of that has been due to Brandin Cooks‘ injury. Since Cooks will miss another week, there is a decent chance that Everett reaches double-digit targets in this game. He has already done that twice this season, after having a career-high 7 targets in a single game throughout his first two NFL seasons. The Steelers have allowed the 9th most fantasy points per game to TEs this season. Therefore, that could be the area of the field that the Rams choose to exploit this week.
O.J. Howard TB vs ARI
Technically, an even better matchup for TEs is facing the Cardinals. They have given up the most fantasy points per game to the position, a status that they have held for almost the entirety of the season. There is some risk here, mostly the fact that O.J. Howard will be making his first appearance since missing action with an injury. That, and his poor production when healthy, could potentially keep his ownership down. In that case, Howard would make a for a great option in GPPs or tournaments.
Best Bet Bargains
RB – Gus Edwards BAL @ CIN $13
The games when Gus Edwards has gotten the most work are blowouts. Now, this may not be the 59-10 destruction of the Dolphins in week 1, but the Bengals are not that much better. Edwards saw a season-high 17 carries in that contest after the Ravens obtained an insurmountable lead. Even if the victory is not quite to that extent, the scoring opportunities should be aplenty for Baltimore. Edwards has received 16 red zone rushing attempts so far this season, including 7 runs from inside the 5-yard line.
RB – Ty Johnson DET @ CHI $12
I mentioned Ty Johnson in this section a couple of weeks ago. However, that did not turn out as expected since Tra Carson led the Lions in rushing attempts that week. Now, with Carson out of the season, Detroit should turn to Johnson for the majority of carries. Especially important is Johnson’s role a the red zone and goal-line back. Against the Bears, who have allowed the 8th most fantasy points per game to RBs this season, Johnson’s role should lead to production. At least, enough production to give a solid return on investment for a $12 price tag.
WR – Golden Tate NYG @ NYJ $19
It may be difficult to consider a $19 player a bargain, but this has more to do with his potential production compared to his price. Golden Tate has been heavily involved in the passing game since returning to the team from suspension. In 3 of the 5 games that he has played in 2019, Tate has led the team (or tied for the team lead) in targets. With Evan Engram out this week, that should only increase the likelihood of Tate seeing an abundance of targets. The Jets DVOA defense ranks, appear to favor the passing game for the Giants.
Dominant Defenses
Baltimore Ravens @ CIN $13
There is no reason to pay up for defenses this week. Going against the Bengals and a QB making his first career start, the Ravens defense should be in for a field day on Sunday. Even for a road team, Baltimore’s prospects of getting a turnover appear rather elevated. If any, or multiple takeaways are returned for a score, then the Ravens could easily be the highest scoring fantasy defense this week. Take advantage of that opportunity at such a cheap price.
Detroit Lions @ CHI $13
If you are looking to pivot away from the Ravens, then the Lions are an equally intriguing matchup. Another road defense, which helps explain the lower price. And while Detroit is facing an experienced QB, he has been prone to turnovers and bad play this season. This $13 price range is not something I want to surpass, especially with the many expensive players that I recommend in this article.
Super Stack
Falcons-Saints
QB – Drew Brees NO $34
RB – Alvin Kamara NO $30
WR – Tedd Ginn NO $15
TE – Austin Hooper ATL – $25
This Falcons-Saints contest has the 2nd highest combined over/under of the week, after the Cardinals-Buccaneers game. A lot of that has to do with New Orleans having the largest implied total of week 10 at 32.5 points. Playing in a Home and Dome contest, and coming off of a bye week, expect Drew Brees to be a full go and sling the ball all over the field. With Alvin Kamara also returning, this offense will be clicking on all cylinders and going against the 2nd least efficient pass defense according to DVOA. While paying up for the most expensive WR on the slate isn’t a horrible idea, I am especially excited to target another Saints player who is less than half of the price. Because Ted Ginn has not produced a 100-yard game since week 1 and only has 1 TD on the season, his ownership will be lower. Ginn could be a great play in GPPs and Tournaments, which is where stacking is most important.
Looking on the other side of the matchup, Austin Hooper has been one of the best TEs on the season. His target share is enough to put him above the TD-dependant tier at TE. With a dome game against the 6th most efficient run defense in DVOA, and the Saints offense with its explosive potential, the Falcons will have no choice but to keep up with an areal attack. Hooper’s outlook is much better now that his starting QB will be returning.
Vikings-Cowboys
RB – Dalvin Cook MIN $35
RB – Ezekiel Elliott DAL $30
It’s another dome game to stack. Only instead of going after the passing game options, I want to take both of the RBs. Ezekiel Elliott, at $30 actually feels like a value considering the highest priced RB, Christian McCaffrey, is $41. As for Dalvin Cook, the Cowboys have allowed some incredible performances to RBs this season. Furthermore, both teams are dealing with injuries to their top WRs. While one has been ruled out, the other is listed as questionable. Either way, the Vikings and Cowboys will probably employ a clock-control run-heavy approach, thus elevating the production of each RB.
Other Stacks: Giants, Cardinals-Buccaneers
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