Week 11 is now upon us. That means another chance to win big playing DFS. Here are my picks for the optimal Yahoo prices and strategy involving their DFS format. Article sections include Home and Dome, Preferred Positional Price Points, Best Bet Bargains, Dominant Defenses and Super Stacks.
The main Yahoo slate does not include Thursday or Monday Night Football.
For more information on Yahoo NFL DFS scoring setting and lineup requirements, check out the Week 1 article.
Home and Dome
There are a few elements that I look at in order to find the most desired matchups. There is what I call Home and Dome, teams that are playing at home with an indoor stadium. Wind can be a factor that can negatively impact passing offenses and being indoors takes that element away. Three teams play Home and Dome during the Week 11 Sunday slate:
Detroit Lions vs Dallas Cowboys
Indianapolis Colts vs Jacksonville Jaguars
Minnesota Vikings vs Denver Broncos
Preferred Position Price Points
Because the pricing is so compressed on Yahoo’s format, there are a lot more players at the same cost than there are on other platforms. For our purposes, that is great because it gives us certain price ranges to target when creating DFS lineups.
QB – $27
Kyle Allen CAR vs ATL
Yes, the Falcons held the Saints to only 9 points last week. However, that appears to be a major anomaly for Atlanta’s defense. So far in 2019, the Falcons defense is ranked as the 2nd least efficient passing defense in the league, at least according to Football Outsider’s DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average). On the season, Atlanta has allowed he 5th most fantasy points per game to opposing QBs. Therefore, Kyle Allen has a great matchup even though he has not scored more than 18 fantasy points in a single game since September. This could keep his ownership lower, which is especially advantageous in GPPs or tournaments.
Derek Carr OAK vs CIN
Vegas has bestowed upon the Raiders Week 11’s highest implied total at 29.75 points. What we’ve seen of the Bengals this season is that they are vulnerable all over the field. They have allowed the 3rd most fantasy points per game to opposing QBs in 2019. The DVOA confirms their defensive ineptitude as they are ranked as the worst pass defense unit but also the 4th least efficient run defense. Josh Jacobs is limited in practice this week. While he appears on track to play, he may see a reduced workload in an expected blowout. If that is the case, then Derek Carr will likely see an elevated volume. Even if he does not, Carr has the weapons to put up a decent fantasy total without an abnormal amount of dropbacks.
RB – $32-$34
Ezekiel Elliott DAL vs DET $34
The Lions have allowed the 2nd most fantasy points per game to opposing RBs in 2019. Now, a lot of those accumulated points came during Mike Daniels‘ absence. He returned last week and the Bears RBs only produced 74 yards on 20 carries. Now, the Cowboys offensive line is much better than Chicago’s unit. The Bears are ranked 37th in adjusted offensive line yards, while the Cowboys have the 3rd best unit in that regard. Ezekiel Elliott should find the room to run and produce against this Detroit defense. Elliott did have a 3-game streak of 100+ yard games snapped last week against the Vikings. Look him to get back on track this week.
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Dalvin Cook MIN vs DEN $32
The Broncos passing defense has been shutting down areal attacks, especially teams’ top targets. With Adam Thielen likely to miss yet another game, everything falls onto Stefon Diggs‘ shoulders. That makes the odds of Chris Harris to shadowing Diggs highly likely. All that being said, the Vikings typical plan appears to be run as much as possible. Against a Broncos offense led by a QB making his 2nd career NFL start, Minnesota may not need to throw too often. That means a heavy dose of Dalvin Cook is in order. The Vikings have the 7th highest implied total on the Sunday slate and are favored by double-digit points. That means a massive workload for Cook could be in store.
WR – $19
Tyler Boyd CIN @ OAK
Throughout this article, I have, and will, be talking a lot about the Raiders players. But let me take some time to mention one of their opponents this week. Tyler Boyd has seen double-digit targets in over half of his games this season. While the Bengals Vegas implied total is not that high, they are nonetheless playing one of the weaker secondaries in the league. Oakland is the 4th-least efficient pass defense according to DVOA. As long as Boyd continues to see his normal target share, he should be able to produce against this defense.
Tyrell Williams OAK vs CIN
With Derek Carr’s selection in the QB section, it only makes sense to have his top WR listed as well. Tyrell Williams began the season on a hot streak by scoring a TD in the first 5 games that he played in 2019. Since then, in his 2 most recent contests, Williams combined for 6 receptions and barely over 70 receiving yards. Those matches were against the Lions and the Chargers respectively. While those defenses have had their share of struggles, they do employ Darius Slay and Casey Hayward as cornerbacks. No one on the Bengals has coverage skills equal to those excellent defensive backs. Therefore, Williams is well-positioned to find the end zone once again.
TE – $21-$22
Mark Andrews BAL vs HOU $22
Considering the lower preferred price point for WRs, this seems like a good week to pay up at TE. Here in week 11, the top two TEs separate themselves from the others. That is because of the top 5 players at the position in fantasy points scored this season, 3 of them will not play on this Sunday slate. That leaves Mark Andrews as the top-priced option at the position, but he is nonetheless worth it. Andrews generates a pretty consistent target share. Only once in 2019 did he fail to see at least 7 targets in a single game. In DVOA ranks, the Texans are above average against the run, yet below average against the pass. Even though the Ravens are a run-first team, they may need to pass more than usual, which means even more looks for Andrews.
Darren Waller OAK vs CIN $21
The other TE in the top tier is Darren Waller. Like Andrews, Waller has had a consistent target market in 2019 with at least 5 in all but one game. The concern with Waller is that he is coming oof of a season-low performance of 5.5 fantasy points. While high-priced TEs are usually preferred in cash games, with his recent disappointing performances, Waller could also be viable in GPPs or tournaments.
Best Bet Bargains
RB – James White NE @ PHI $13
With the Eagles great pass-rush provided by their defensive-line, the dump-off options to James White could be quite popular, as it has been at times in 2019. White is actually 2nd on the Patriots in both targets and receptions. Even though he is an RB, White has had more consistent production in the passing game, with at least 46 receiving yards in all but one game this season. And the contest where he failed to reach that plateau, White scored a receiving TD to boost his production. On the road, and against an Eagles team that is much more vulnerable through the air than on the ground, White could be the answer at RB.
RB – Duke Johnson HOU @ BAL $12
Much like White, Duke Johnson is a big part of his team’s passing game even though he is an RB. Johnson is currently 3rd on the team in targets but he also figures more prominent in the running game than White. The Ravens defense has significantly improved throughout the season, especially in the secondary. The addition of Marcus Peters has helped turn around the unit. It makes Baltimore more vulnerable in the short intermediate passing areas, which is right in Johnson’s wheelhouse.
WR – Deebo Samuel SF vs ARI $13
It’s been a week of walking wounded for the 49ers. Several top options in the receiving game have not practiced. Last week Deebo Samuel was the main beneficiary with 11 targets of which he used to produce his first career 100-yard game. Even if Samuel does not see an abundance of looks, the matchup is nonetheless excellent. According to DVOA, the Cardinals are ranked as the 7th least efficient passing defense. Furthermore, San Francisco has the 4th highest implied total from the Sunday slate at 27 points.
Dominant Defenses
Minnesota Vikings vs DEN $16
The Broncos have allowed the 10th most fantasy points per game to opposing defenses. Things should remain status quo in that regard. Denver has the lowest implied total of the week with 15 points. The Broncos are also ranked 29th in adjusted sack rate, meaning that they are definitely vulnerable to an excellent pass-rush, such as the Vikings who are currently 8th in the league in sacks.
New York Jets @ WAS $14
Rookie QB Dwayne Haskins has thrown the majority of Washington’s passing attempts in 2 games this season. In both contests, the team combined to score a total of 12 points. Haskins has yet to throw a TD pass in his short career but he has produced 4 interceptions. There is much concern that he is not well equipped to win games, especially in terms of the offensive line protection. Washington is ranked 28th in adjusted sack rate, meaning that the Jets pass-rush could easily produce in this game. Even if the Jets defense hasn’t been consistently productive, they offer a solid floor considering Washington’s current lack of offensive explosiveness.
Super Stacks
Jets
QB – Sam Darnold NYJ $22
WR – Jamison Crowder NYJ $16
This a simple and cost-effective stack that takes advantage of a great matchup. Washington is ranked as the 8th least efficient passing defense according to DVOA. That should be a good sign for Sam Darnold who, at $22, is one of the cheapest starting QBs on the slate. The momentum is in Darnold’s favor right now as he is coming off only his 2nd 20+ fantasy point performance of the season. Expect Darnold to look for his top target often. Jamison Crowder not only leads the Jets in targets but also in receptions and receiving yards. The momentum is also flowing in Crowder’s favor as he produced at least 16.6 fantasy points in consecutive weeks. All 3 instances where he surpassed 15 fantasy points were all games where Darnold was active. This cost-effective stack can incredibly useful in fitting expensive top tier players into your lineup.
Falcons-Panthers
RB – Christian McCaffrey CAR $41
RB – Brian Hill ATL $14
There is a potentially interesting stack opportunity in this Falcons-Panthers game. Take the highest-priced player in the slate and play him alongside the cheapest lead-back for any team. Christian McCaffrey had been very productive and a TD machine. There was only 1 game where he failed to find the end-zone and that was week 2 against the #1 ranked DVOA run defense. The Falcons are more vulnerable to the pass, but McCaffrey is so involved in the arieal attack that it should not matter.
Talk about weak run defenses. The Panthers are ranked dead-last in run defense efficiency, at least according to DVOA. Whoever runs against them should be very productive. With Devonta Freeman likely to miss this contest, Brian Hill is in line for a workhorse role. He saw 20 rushing attempts and 2 targets last week after taking over the backfield mid-game. He also saw 6 Red Zone opportunities in that span.
Another addition to this sack would be Panthers QB Kyle Allen who is listed at the preferred position price point for signal-callers.
Saints-Buccaneers
WR – Michael Thomas NO $38
WR – Chris Godwin TB $32
The Sains-Buccaneers game has the 2nd highest combined over/under on the Sunday slate with 50 points. Looking at the DVOA, both teams rank in the top 7 in terms of run defense efficiency, with Tampa Bay at #1. Furthermore, the Saints and Buccaneers are both in the bottom 3 of fantasy points per game allowed to RBs in 2019. Therefore, it will be difficult for any player to produce on the ground, thus the WR stack. By using multiple cheaper assets (such as those in the Best Bet Bargain section, or even here in the Super Stacks) it is possible to save enough money to be able to afford multiple top tier WRs from this game.
We begin this stack with arguably the most consistent player in fantasy football, Michael Thomas. Only twice this season did Thomas fail to see double-digit targets in a single game. His worst fantasy performance of the season was 12.9 fantasy points against the Jaguars who have an above-average DVOA pass defense. Against the Buccaneers, Thomas actually had his best fantasy output of 2019 with 11 receptions for 182 yards and 2 TDs.
On the Buccaneers side, both Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are priced above the $30 mark. However, when stacking with Thomas, I would side with Godwin simply for the price. A $5 difference may not seem like much, but it could be significant depending on your other lineup options. The Saints could be without their top 3 cornerbacks this week, which an obvious boost to both Evans and Godwin.
Others Stacks: Texans-Ravens, Bengals-Raiders
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