Week 12 is now upon us. That means another chance to win big playing DFS. Here are my picks for the optimal Yahoo prices and strategy involving their DFS format. Article sections include Home and Dome, Preferred Positional Price Points, Best Bet Bargains, Dominant Defenses and Super Stacks.
The main Yahoo slate does not include Thursday or Monday Night Football.
For more information on Yahoo NFL DFS scoring setting and lineup requirements, check out the Week 1 article.
Home and Dome
There are a few elements that I look at in order to find the most desired matchups. There is what I call Home and Dome, teams that are playing at home with an indoor stadium. Wind can be a factor that can negatively impact passing offenses and being indoors takes that element away. Two teams play Home and Dome during the Week 12 Sunday slate:
Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
New Orleans Saints vs Carolina Panthers
Preferred Position Price Points
Because the pricing is so compressed on Yahoo’s format, there are a lot more players at the same cost than there are on other platforms. For our purposes, that is great because it gives us certain price ranges to target when creating DFS lineups.
QB – $24
Josh Allen BUF vs DEN
Playing the QB going against the team who has allowed the 3rd fewest fantasy points per game to the position may seem odd. But Josh Allen is not your typical signal-caller. His rushing ability has helped sustain an impressive floor this season. Only once in 2019 has Allen failed to reach 17.26 fantasy points, and that was against the Patriots. Even in that game, he still managed to produce 11.72 fantasy points, a respectable amount considering that QBs have averaged 9.78 fantasy points when facing New England. For Allen, it’s all tied to his rushing ability, which he will need against the Broncos. Working in Allen’s favor is the fact that he has gone 5 straight games without throwing an INT, thus allowed for longer and more productive offensive possessions. His high floor / low ceiling combination makes Allen a better Cash or 50/50 play.
Jeff Driskel DET @ WAS
Through 2 games in 2019, Jeff Driskel has performed at a productive level, especially when taking his opponent’s into consideration. 18.56 fantasy points in Chicago is no small feat, nor is 27.46 fantasy points against Dallas. Both teams are ranked in among 8th fewest fantasy points per game allowed the QBs. In week 12, Driskel will face Washington, a team devoid of talent. With the Lions’ clouded RB situation, perhaps passing will be preferred for the team. Driskel is certainly in the preferred price point range. At $24, only 7 starting QBs are less expensive. And none of them provide the rushing ability that Drsikel provides. While Josh Allen is the safer play, Driskel arguably has more upside and should be an excellent bargain option in GPPs and Tournaments.
RB – $32-$31
Alvin Kamara NO vs CAR $32
The Panthers have given up the 3rd most fantasy points per game to RBs this season. So right off the bat, this appears to be a great matchup for Alvin Kamara. The further we dig in, we see that Carolina has allowed the most rushing TDs in the entire league. This is very important to a player like Kamara whose value his tied to his ability to find the end zone. Only 2 TDs on the season for Kamara is disappointing, to say the least, especially when he is coming off of a season where he scored 18 times. The Saints have the highest implied total of the week at 28 points, so expect Kamara to be heavily involved for a high-scoring Saints offense.
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Nick Chubb CLE vs MIA $31
The Dolphins have been a vulnerable defense all season. That includes allowed the 6th most fantasy points per game to RBs. With his solid and consistent workload, Nick Chubb should find no problem producing against Miami. Even with the return of another RB from suspension, Chubb has seen at least 20 carries for the last 5 weeks. He only has 4 TDs on the season, even though he has received a multitude of Red Zone opportunities. Look for the TDs to come, starting here in week 12.
WR – $20
Julian Edelman NE vs DAL
Julian Edelman offers a steady target market share for the Patriots. There have only been 3 games this season where Edelman saw single-digit targets. Also adding to Edelman stock is the potential absence of Mohamed Sanu. A few weeks ago, I recommended Edelman in this section. He went off for 23.5 fantasy points in that contest on the back of 8 receptions and 2 TDs. It is quite possible that Edelman scores another pair of TDs in this matchup.
D.K. Metcalf SEA @ PHI
Like the Patriots, the Seahawks are also dealing with an injury to an important WR. Only in this case, it’s Seattle’s #1 option Tyler Lockett. Without him, D.K. Metcalf saw 10 targets. Even with the arrival of Josh Gordon, Metcalf has become a major part of the offense, and potentially the top target if Lockett misses week 12. The Seahawks and Eagles game has the 2nd highest combined over/under on the slate. This is an especially great opportunity for Metcalf considering the Philadelphia has given up the 5ht most fantasy points per game to the WR position.
TE – $14
Dallas Goedert PHI vs SEA
Keeping with that Seahawks-Eagles game, we now move to TE. With all of the injuries to Eagles’ WRs this season, Dallas Goedert has seen an increased role. He played on at least 71% of the offensive snaps in each of the last 4 of the last 5 games. Goedert has also received at least 4 targets and scored 3 TDs in that stretch. It should be a high scoring contest, and why not get an inexpensive piece that has been productive of late. If of course, you feel more comfortable paying up a TE for a larger target share, then Goedert’s teammate Zach Ertz is also at an acceptable price.
Ryan Griffin NYJ vs OAK
Much like Goedert, Ryan Griffin also has a top tier TE in the same game as him. Only this time it’s his opponent Darren Waller. The Raiders TE is close to Ertz in price so this selection carries the same principal. If you are looking for a cheap yet productive alternative to a chalk TE, look no further down than Griffin, who has twice been the TE 1 overall in the last 4 weeks. The Jets tilt against Oakland has the 5th highest combined over/under, so streaming Griffin as a TD dependent TE can absolutely work.
Best Bet Bargains
RB – Miles Sanders PHI vs SEA $14
With Jordan Howard questionable heading into week 12, Miles Sanders should be in line to once again receive double-digit rushing attempts. That occurred during the first 4 weeks of 2019, as well as the previous 2. Sanders’ target share has also remained fairly consistent this season. There are only 2 instances in 2019 where Sanders failed to see 3 targets and those were both early in the season. Sanders should be an excellent play in a Seahawks-Eagles game that has already been detailed a few times throughout this article.
WR – DeVante Parker MIA @ CLE $16
DeVante Parker has actually been quite consistent of late. He has scored at least 8.9 fantasy points in each of the last 7 games. Especially impressive was last week’s performance against star cornerback Tre’Davious White where Parker produced a career-high 7 receptions and 135 yards. This week, he faces a Browns defense who just lost their best defender for the season. While Myles Garret is a defensive end, a less effective pass rush means that the Cleveland defensive backs may need to cover for longer periods of time. Look for Parker to get open early and often in this week 12 matchup.
TE – Jonnu Smith TEN vs JAX $10
With Delane Walker likely to miss another game, Jonnu Smith has an excellent opportunity in front of him. After not catching more than 2 passes through the Titans first 6 games, Smith has at least 3 reception in each of the previous 4 contests. Those 4 games have all been contests in which Ryan Tannehill got the start at QB. Smith has led the team in targets (18) during those Tannehill-led matches. Clearly Smith’ connection with the new starting QB is stronger than what he shared with the other guy. Look for Smith to continue his productive ways. While he has only scored 1 TD on the season, he has a decent chance to find the end zone. The Jaguars secondary is more vulnerable in the middle than on the outside so Smith should see the best matchups.
Dominant Defenses
Detroit Lions @ WAS $14
This week, the Lions face the offense that has allowed the 6th most fantasy points per game to opposing defenses at 10.6 fantasy points per game. In contests where Dwayne Haskins has played the majority of the contest, that number jumps to just under 14 fantasy points per game to defenses which would be most in the league. Even better news for Detroit is that they are mostly fully healthy now, at least on defense. Mike Daniels and Darius Slay have each missed time in 2019. Now with both back, the Lions defense should be in store for a monster game.
Atlanta Falcons vs TB $11
Since their bye week, the Falcons have put up back-back double-digit fantasy points against NFC South rival. While 26 fantasy points on the back of 4 INT against the Panthers is not the most shocking defensive performance ever seen. Especially after holding the vaunted Saints offense, coming off of a bye themselves, to 9 points in the game. This week, the face another divisional opponent in the form of the Buccaneers, whose QB leads the league in INTs with 18. The odds of Atlanta repeating last week’s performance are not that bad. That fact that they are priced at $11, just above the minimum, makes them a must-play in any format.
Super Stacks
Buccaneers-Falcons
QB – Matt Ryan ATL / Jameis Winston TB $33
WR – Chris Godwin TB $32
WR – Calvin Ridley ATL $28
Home and Dome games typically create ideal passing environments of NFL teams. In this Buccaneers-Falcons game, that is exactly what I expect to happen. At 51.5 points projected as the over/under, this should be a high-scoring affair. Add to the fact that both teams are among the top 8 in most fantasy points allowed to QBs, then this is a great opportunity to stack passing options. Both Matt Ryan and Jameis Winston are equally priced at $33 so selecting between them does not change your budget construction. I would favor the home team and go with Ryan, especially since I did suggest playing Atlanta’s defense.
As for the receiving options, regardless of which QB you ultimately select, I recommend taking 1 WR from each team. For me, it’s Chris Godwin and Calvin Ridley. Both players have more expensive teammates. Regardless, Godwin has been a productive fantasy asset and is currently the WR 3 overall. As for Ridley, he caught all 8 of his targets last week. With Mohamed Sanu traded and Austin Hooper unlikely to play in week 12, Ridley is locked in as a top 2 target for the Falcons, at least in this game.
Steelers
QB – Mason Rudolph PIT @CIN $22
RB – Jaylen Samuels PIT @ CIN $17
TE – Vance McDonald PIT @ CIN $12
The Bengals are incredibly vulnerable to opposing offenses. For instance, they have allowed the 3rd most fantasy points per game to opposing QBs. While Mason Rudolph has yet to have a monster fantasy performance, he did have his 2nd best performance of the season against Cincinnati. 16.86 fantasy points is not too shabby on the part of Rudolph. And at only $22, he is an inexpensive stacking option. To afford several high priced RBs and WR, pair Rudolph with Vance McDonald. The TE has received 7 targets in 3 straight games. With the Steelers receiving corps banged up, McDonald could easily see an increase in target share.
With James Conner ruled out, Jaylen Samuels has a (black and) golden opportunity as he will be the Steelers lead back going into week 12. Regardless, Samuels has been a major piece of Pittsburgh’s passing plan, even when Conner has played. Since returning from injury, Samuels has not seen less than 6 targets in any game. The Bengals have allowed the 5th most fantasy points per game to opposing RBs. They have also surrendered the 11th most receiving yards to the position, even though teams have completed the 9th fewest receptions to RBs against them. Imagine what type of yardage they will give up to an RB who specializes in catching and will see the volume as well.
Other Stacks: Seahawks-Eagles, Panthers-Saints
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